Chile: Consumer confidence falls to one-year low in September
October 4, 2018
The Adimark GfK consumer confidence index (IPEC, Índice de Percepción de la Economía) dipped to 46.1 points in September, from 47.0 points in August, marking the third consecutive month of deteriorating sentiment. As a result, the index slipped further below the critical 50-point threshold that separates pessimism from optimism among Chilean consumers.
September’s decline in consumer sentiment reflected the deterioration in three out of five components of the index compared to the previous month, which more than offset the improvement in the two remaining components. Consumers’ sentiment regarding the country’s stability over the next five years continued to weaken in September and remained deeply entrenched in negative territory. Meanwhile, consumers’ willingness to buy big-ticket household items fell slightly in September but remained above the 50-point mark, while consumers’ views regarding their current personal situation also fell marginally in the same month, languishing further below the threshold.
On a slightly more positive note, consumers’ assessment of the country’s current economic situation improved slightly in September, although fell slightly short of the 50-point threshold. Moreover, their views regarding the economic situation over the next twelve months remained well-entrenched in positive territory, improving marginally from August.
Chile Private Consumption Forecast
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect private consumption to grow 3.8% in 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate.
Author: Almanas Stanapedis, Economist