Canada Housing July 2019

Canada

Canada: Housing starts tick down in July, but remain elevated

August 9, 2019

Housing starts on a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) basis fell to 222,013 units in July, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), down from June’s revised 245,455-units reading (previously reported: 245,657) but beating market expectations. July’s dip was driven by a fall in multiple and single-detached urban starts.



Meanwhile, the six-month average of housing starts on a SAAR basis increased to 208,970 units in July from 205,765 units in June.



Commenting on July’s print, Sri Thanabalasingam, an economist at TD Economics, noted:



“On the whole, homebuilding appears to be more robust than previously thought. While residential investment gains are expected to weaken from an extraordinary second quarter, solid fundamentals – increasing population, low interest rates and rising wages – suggest residential investment could see sustained healthy gains through the second half of this year.”

In its annual Housing Market Outlook released in October, the CMHC projected housing starts would range between 193,700–204,500 units in 2019 and between 189,300–201,300 units in 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants, meanwhile, expect 200,000 housing starts in 2019, before moderating to 193,000 units in 2020.


Author:, Economist

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Canada Housing Starts July 2019 0

Note: Monthly housing starts and six-month trend in monthly housing starts, both at seasonally-adjusted annualized rate.
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).


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