Canada GDP November 2018

Canada

Canada: Economic activity contracts in November

January 31, 2019

Matching analysts’ expectations, the economy shrank 0.1% month-on-month in November, following a 0.3% month-on-month expansion in October. According to Statistics Canada, 13 out of the 20 industrial sectors posted gains over the previous month, but this was more than offset by decreases in the wholesale trade, finance and insurance, manufacturing and construction sectors.

On an annual basis, growth ticked down to 1.7% from 2.2% in October, while annual average growth inched down to 2.4% from 2.5% a month earlier.

Dissecting November’s print, Benoit P. Durocher, senior economist at Desjardins, noted that:

“Some one-time factors contributed to a decline in output for November. Production in oil refineries was down

due to maintenance work. An unusual retooling and production schedule hampered the automobile industry. The rotating strike

at Canada Post disrupted the transportation sector. A violent storm on the east coast impacted oil and gas extraction activities.

That said, all of these sectors could bounce back in December.”

The Bank of Canada expects economic momentum to ease slightly this year, forecasting growth of 1.7% in 2019 and 2.1% in 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see growth of 1.9% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous forecast, and 1.8% in 2020.


Author:, Economist

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Canada GDP Chart


Canada Monthly GDP November 2018 3

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Statistics Canada (SC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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