The Toronto skyline in Canada

Canada GDP May 2025

Canada: Economy flatlines in May

GDP reading: GDP was flat in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms in May, following April’s 0.1% decrease. On an annual basis, monthly GDP rose at a more moderate pace of 1.2% in May (April: +1.4% yoy), the worst result since March 2024.

Drivers: Goods-producing industries contracted in May, mainly due to a decline in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas, though manufacturing grew. Service industries were broadly flat, with gains in real estate and transportation offset by drops in retail and public administration.

GDP outlook: Preliminary data suggests real GDP rose 0.1% in June, with gains in retail and wholesale trade partly offset by a drop in manufacturing. Based on this estimate, the economy showed little overall change in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025—a resilient performance given the imposition of U.S. tariffs on some Canadian imports from March.

Panelist insight: TD Economics’ Marc Ercolao said:

“May’s weak GDP reading came as no surprise as tariff-related headwinds continue to blow. For the time being, industry data suggest Q2 GDP effectively flat. While this would represent a sharp pullback from Q1 growth, it would be a better outcome than the BoC’s most recent guidance for second quarter growth. Past this, the outlook continues to face considerable uncertainty.”

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Email Team Member Linkedin Team Member Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest X Fullscreen Line Chart Globe Download Share