The Toronto skyline in Canada

Canada GDP February 2025

Canada: Economic activity drops in February

GDP reading: GDP slid 0.2% in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms in February, which contrasted January’s 0.4% increase. February’s figure was below market expectations. Goods-producing industries led February’s overall decline, driven by weakness in mining, oil and gas extraction plus construction, while service industries dipped slightly due to contractions in transportation and real estate. On an annual basis, monthly GDP grew 1.6% in February, which was below January’s 2.3% expansion and marked the worst result since May 2024.

GDP outlook: A flash estimate put GDP growth at 0.1% in March, taking Q1’s expansion to around 1.5% in quarter-on-quarter annualized terms. That said economic momentum should deteriorate in Q2 due to U.S. tariffs.

Panelist insight: Desjardins’ LJ Valencia said:

“February 2025’s decline in real GDP by industry was primarily attributed to weather-induced weakness in goods-producing sectors. […] Under the hood, there are signs the economy is responding adversely to escalating trade tensions with the US. Consequently, we’re projecting a mild recession in 2025, possibly starting as early as Q2.”

Free sample report

Access essential information in the shortest time possible. FocusEconomics provide hundreds of consensus forecast reports from the most reputable economic research authorities in the world.
Close Left Media Arrows Left Media Circles Right Media Arrows Right Media Circles Arrow Quote Wave Address Email Telephone Man in front of screen with line chart Document with bar chart and magnifying glass Application window with bar chart Target with arrow Line Chart Stopwatch Globe with arrows Document with bar chart in front of screen Bar chart with magnifying glass and dollar sign Lightbulb Document with bookmark Laptop with download icon Calendar Icon Nav Menu Arrow Arrow Right Long Icon Arrow Right Icon Chevron Right Icon Chevron Left Icon Briefcase Icon Linkedin In Icon Full Linkedin Icon Filter Facebook Linkedin Twitter Pinterest X Download Fullscreen