Cambodia Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019
The economy likely continued to perform well in 2018, on the back of activity in the tourism and merchandise trade sectors. In the first nine months, garment exports—which constitute the lion’s share of Cambodia’s exports—grew by over a fifth over the same period a year prior, according to customs data. In the same period, growth in tourist arrivals edged higher compared to a year earlier, according to figures from the Ministry of Tourism. Meanwhile, airport data showed continued strong increases in arrivals in October-November, partly owing to the opening of new routes.Cambodia Economic Growth
Economic growth should again be buttressed this year by the garment and the tourism sectors. Ongoing infrastructure investments from China and public consumption will likely provide a further boost. However, the potential loss of preferential market access to the EU poses a significant downside risk, while the slowdown in the Chinese economy could harm tourist arrivals. Our panelists expect the economy to expand 6.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.4% in 2020.Cambodia Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 15.1 | 15.3 | 15.5 | 15.8 | 16.0 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,024 | 1,096 | 1,161 | 1,269 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 15.5 | 16.8 | 18.1 | 20.0 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 7.4 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.1 | -1.1 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -3.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 35.4 | 34.1 | 32.5 | 33.7 | 35.1 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 2.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 1.34 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.53 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 3,970 | 4,050 | 4,020 | 3,990 | 4,025 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 4,007 | 4,011 | 4,038 | 4,036 | 4,030 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -12.9 | -9.9 | -9.4 | -8.9 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -2.0 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.8 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -3.2 | -3.2 | -3.5 | -3.4 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 6.6 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.3 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 9.8 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 12.7 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 16.7 | 13.6 | 14.0 | 9.1 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 20.4 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 6.0 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 4.5 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 8.4 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 46.2 | 47.3 | 51.7 | 51.1 | - |
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Cambodia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 3,976 | 0.05 % | Feb 14 |
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