Cambodia Economic Outlook
February 20, 2018Recent data points to another year of healthy GDP growth in 2017. Exports seemingly increased at a double-digit rate, driven by a strong tourism sector and non-textile exports. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment expanded in H1, and the construction sector grew notably in the first 10 months of 2017. On the political front, a crackdown on the opposition and the adoption of lese-majeste law threatens Cambodia’s removal from preferential tax-free and quota-free trade agreements with the U.S. and the EU. The U.S. senate issued a statement on 9 February threatening asset freezes and a funding ban in response to the government’s actions. These developments are likely to bring Cambodia closer to China, implying a growing reliance on the Chinese economy.
Cambodia Economic GrowthGrowth is set to remain elevated in 2018, on the back of a robust external sector and industrial production growth. However, downside risks to the outlook persist, namely potential economic sanctions or the loss of investor confidence due to turbulent politics. Our panel expects GDP to grow 6.8% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.7% in 2019.
Cambodia Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||944||1,024||1,096||1,161||1,269|
|GDP (USD bn)||14.0||15.5||16.8||18.1||20.0|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||7.3||7.5||7.1||7.0||6.9|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-3.8||-2.1||-1.3||-1.6||-2.9|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||32.1||32.1||32.3||32.5||33.0|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||2.9||3.0||3.9||1.2||3.0|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||1.33||1.34||1.42||1.42||1.44|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||3,996||3,970||4,050||4,020||3,990|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||4,035||4,007||4,011||4,038||4,036|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-7.4||-10.4||-9.9||-9.3||-8.3|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-1.0||-1.6||-1.7||-1.7||-1.7|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-3.5||-3.6||-2.6||-3.5||-3.4|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.8||9.2||10.9||8.5||9.3|
|Imports (USD billion)||11.4||12.8||13.5||12.0||12.7|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||16.9||18.0||17.4||14.0||9.1|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||22.0||12.8||5.5||12.1||6.0|
|International Reserves (USD)||4.3||4.5||5.6||6.9||8.4|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||44.8||46.2||47.2||49.2||49.2|
5 years of Cambodia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||3,983||0.05 %||Feb 22|
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