Cambodia Economic Forecast

Cambodia Economic Outlook

July 21, 2020

The economy was severely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic in the first half of the year. The crucial garment sector suffered from weak demand in important markets such as the U.S. and EU, with garment exports contracting year-on-year. Moreover, more than 250 garment factories employing 130,000 workers suspended operations, while remittances likely took a hit. In addition, tourism reeled from tight restrictions on visitors and lockdowns abroad, with international arrivals reportedly down by close to 60% in annual terms through May. Turning to the second half of the year, in recent weeks borders with Thailand and Vietnam have reopened, which should be supporting business activity to some degree. However, the economy is still being held back by lingering weakness in key export markets.

Cambodia Economic Growth

Economic growth will slow substantially this year, as downbeat external demand and lower remittances pummel disposable income, thus weighing on private consumption. Meanwhile, investment should remain muted amid heightened uncertainties. Prolonged soft external demand and possible further restrictions on market access to the EU and U.S. cloud the outlook. The panel projects the economy to grow 0.2% in 2020, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 5.7% in 2021.

Cambodia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)15.515.816.016.316.5
GDP per capita (USD)1,1601,2781,3851,5101,631
GDP (USD bn)18.020.222.224.526.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.07.07.07.57.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.6-0.3-0.80.7-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.229.130.028.6-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.23.02.92.51.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.421.441.53-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4,0203,9904,0253,9924,055
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4,0384,0364,0304,0234,029
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.9-8.6-8.2-12.3-15.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.6-1.7-1.8-3.0-4.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.0-3.9-4.3-5.9-7.3
Exports (USD billion)9.410.311.313.015.1
Imports (USD billion)13.414.215.618.922.4
Exports (annual variation in %)14.19.99.315.615.9
Imports (annual variation in %)10.46.19.821.418.5
International Reserves (USD)6.98.411.313.417.0
External Debt (% of GDP)51.449.050.754.4-  

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Cambodia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate4,0280.05 %Jan 01

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