Cambodia Economic Outlook
July 17, 2018
Data continues to suggest that the economy is performing well. In March, tourist arrivals increased by nearly a fifth on an annual basis. Garment exports, meanwhile, also increased at a slightly quicker pace in the same month, and by more than a fifth compared to the same month a year ago. Against this rosy economic backdrop, the country is preparing for general elections scheduled for 29 July. Following the dissolution of the main opposition party, the CNRP, and a government crackdown on independent media, the incumbent Prime Minister Hun Sen is expected to win convincingly.Cambodia Economic Growth
Continuing robust growth in tourist arrivals and garment exports, coupled with Chinese aid and investment, should buttress the economy this year. Downside risks, however, persist. Relations with the U.S. and EU are strained due to the ruling party’s treatment of the opposition, which could lead to sanctions or the removal of Cambodia’s preferential market access. Nevertheless, our panelists still expect the economy to expand 6.9% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.6% in 2019.Cambodia Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 15.1 | 15.3 | 15.5 | 15.8 | 16.0 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,024 | 1,096 | 1,161 | 1,269 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 15.5 | 16.8 | 18.1 | 20.0 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 7.4 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.1 | -1.1 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -3.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 35.4 | 34.1 | 32.5 | 33.7 | 35.1 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 2.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 1.34 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.53 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 3,970 | 4,050 | 4,020 | 3,990 | 4,025 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 4,007 | 4,011 | 4,038 | 4,036 | 4,030 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -12.9 | -9.9 | -9.4 | -8.9 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -2.0 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.8 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -3.2 | -3.2 | -3.5 | -3.4 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 6.6 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.3 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 9.8 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 12.7 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 16.7 | 13.6 | 14.0 | 9.1 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 20.4 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 6.0 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 4.5 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 8.4 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 46.2 | 47.3 | 51.7 | 51.1 | - |
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Cambodia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 4,046 | 0.05 % | Jul 17 |
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