Cambodia Economic Outlook
September 18, 2018
The economy appears to be performing well thanks to robust tourism inflows and garment exports. However, the budget deficit is expected to widen on the back of higher public sector wages and capital spending, which could raise concerns over fiscal sustainability. A new government led by Prime Minister Hun Sen was formed in early September, following the July poll which was widely condemned due to a crackdown on opposition forces. The general election strained relations with the U.S. and the EU; the EU Parliament recently passed a resolution that could lead to sanctions on top officials and to a review of Cambodia’s preferential trading arrangement.Cambodia Economic Growth
Growth should remain solid in H2 and in 2019, thanks to a robust tourism sector and healthy infrastructure investment. The possibility of restrictions to the country’s preferential market access to the EU and the U.S. is a downside risk, however. Meanwhile, minimum wage rises could decrease the garment sector’s competitiveness and drag on exports. Nonetheless, our panelists expect the economy to expand 6.9% in 2018 and 6.6% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.Cambodia Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 15.1 | 15.3 | 15.5 | 15.8 | 16.0 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,024 | 1,096 | 1,161 | 1,269 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 15.5 | 16.8 | 18.1 | 20.0 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 7.4 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.1 | -1.1 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -3.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 35.4 | 34.1 | 32.5 | 33.7 | 35.1 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 2.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 1.34 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.53 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 3,970 | 4,050 | 4,020 | 3,990 | 4,025 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 4,007 | 4,011 | 4,038 | 4,036 | 4,030 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -12.9 | -9.9 | -9.4 | -8.9 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -2.0 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.8 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -3.2 | -3.2 | -3.5 | -3.4 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 6.6 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.3 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 9.8 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 12.7 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 16.7 | 13.6 | 14.0 | 9.1 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 20.4 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 6.0 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 4.5 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 8.4 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 46.2 | 47.3 | 51.7 | 51.1 | - |
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Cambodia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 4,062 | 0.05 % | Oct 12 |
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