Cambodia Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018
The economy likely expanded robustly in 2018, buoyed by strong activity in exports and tourism. Garments—the country’s top export—increased strongly in H1 in annual terms, while exports of rubber rose markedly in the first 10 months of the year. Moreover, there has been double-digit growth in tourist arrivals in Q1-Q3, while October saw a surge in passenger numbers at Cambodia’s airports, which points to upbeat tourist activity in Q4. On the political front, in December the prime minister strengthened economic and political ties with Nepal, by signing multiple bilateral agreements which aim to boost trade, investment and tourism between the two countries.Cambodia Economic Growth
Looking ahead, tourism and textiles will likely continue to bolster economic growth. In addition, government spending and Chinese FDI in infrastructure projects should further boost the economy. The potential loss of preferential market access to the EU is a significant downside risk, which could damage exports, employment and creditworthiness. Our panelists expect the economy to expand 6.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.4% in 2020.Cambodia Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 15.1 | 15.3 | 15.5 | 15.8 | 16.0 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,024 | 1,096 | 1,161 | 1,269 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 15.5 | 16.8 | 18.1 | 20.0 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 7.4 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.1 | -1.1 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -3.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 35.4 | 34.1 | 32.5 | 33.7 | 35.1 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 2.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 1.34 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.53 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 3,970 | 4,050 | 4,020 | 3,990 | 4,025 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 4,007 | 4,011 | 4,038 | 4,036 | 4,030 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -12.9 | -9.9 | -9.4 | -8.9 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -2.0 | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.8 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -3.2 | -3.2 | -3.5 | -3.4 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 6.6 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.3 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 9.8 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 12.7 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 16.7 | 13.6 | 14.0 | 9.1 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 20.4 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 6.0 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 4.5 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 8.4 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 46.2 | 47.3 | 51.7 | 51.1 | - |
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Cambodia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 4,009 | 0.05 % | Dec 12 |
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