Cambodia Economic Outlook
February 25, 2020
The economy was likely one of the region’s top performers last year. In September—the most recent month of data—lending was up by over a quarter year-on-year, which should have stoked domestic demand. Moreover, the construction sector boomed amid an influx of Chinese capital. However, the flipside to the hot domestic economy was a surging current account deficit in Q1–Q3, suggesting the external sector weighed on activity. Turning to 2020, recent developments bode poorly for the first quarter. The coronavirus outbreak is likely affecting momentum via fewer Chinese tourist arrivals. Moreover, in February the EU partially withdrew Cambodia’s preferential market access, which will affect around 20% of Cambodia’s EU exports. On a more positive note, Prime Minister Hun Sen’s recent visit to Beijing suggests ties with China remain strong.Cambodia Economic Growth
This year, the economy is expected to lose some speed in line with slower growth in key partner China and a hit to the external sector from reduced access to the EU market. The uncertain evolution of the coronavirus outbreak and the large accumulation of credit in the real estate sector pose downside risks to the outlook. Our panelists forecast the economy to grow 6.6% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 6.6% again in 2021.Cambodia Economy Data
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 15.3 | 15.5 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.3 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,091 | 1,160 | 1,278 | 1,385 | 1,510 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 16.7 | 18.0 | 20.2 | 22.2 | 24.5 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -1.6 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.8 | 0.7 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 31.9 | 31.2 | 29.1 | 30.0 | 28.6 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 3.9 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 1.42 | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.53 | - |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 4,050 | 4,020 | 3,990 | 4,025 | 3,992 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 4,011 | 4,038 | 4,036 | 4,030 | 4,023 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -8.5 | -8.9 | -8.6 | -8.2 | -12.3 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -1.4 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -3.0 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -3.9 | -4.0 | -3.9 | -4.3 | -5.9 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 8.2 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 13.0 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 12.1 | 13.4 | 14.2 | 15.6 | 18.9 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 16.2 | 14.1 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 15.6 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 12.8 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 21.4 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 5.6 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 13.4 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 48.7 | 53.9 | 57.6 | 58.7 | 62.5 |
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Cambodia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 4,028 | 0.05 % | Jan 01 |
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