Cambodia Economic Outlook
April 26, 2022
The economy seemingly ended 2021 on a high note. Although tourist arrivals remained markedly below pre-pandemic levels, they picked up towards the end of H2 as restrictions for fully vaccinated travelers were lifted. Moreover, a high vaccination rate and looser restrictions compared to H1 should have further aided domestic demand. Turning to this year, the China-Cambodia Free Trade Agreement—which came into effect on 7 January—should buoy the external sector and support fixed investment. Moreover, renewed bilateral trade and investment with the European Union should bolster the country’s all-important garment sector, following the pandemic-related decline in activity. Lastly, after a surge in Covid-19 cases from late February to early March, infections have now dropped significantly, boding well for private spending at the outset of Q2.Cambodia Economic Growth
The economy is expected to grow at a faster rate this year. Looser restrictions should stimulate consumption and inbound tourism, while continued government spending should offer further support to households. Furthermore, new trade deals and reforms to attract FDI should boost the external sector and investment. Nonetheless, potential Covid-19 flare-ups dampen the outlook. The panel sees the economy expanding 5.3% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 6.2% in 2023.Cambodia Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 15.5 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.3 | 16.5 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,160 | 1,278 | 1,385 | 1,510 | 1,631 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 18.0 | 20.2 | 22.2 | 24.5 | 26.9 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.8 | 0.7 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 31.2 | 29.1 | 30.0 | 28.6 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.53 | - | - |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 4,020 | 3,990 | 4,025 | 3,992 | 4,055 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 4,038 | 4,036 | 4,030 | 4,023 | 4,029 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -8.9 | -8.6 | -8.2 | -12.3 | -15.8 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -1.6 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -3.0 | -4.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -4.0 | -3.9 | -4.3 | -5.9 | -7.3 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 9.4 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 15.1 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 13.4 | 14.2 | 15.6 | 18.9 | 22.4 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 14.1 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 15.6 | 15.9 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 10.4 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 21.4 | 18.5 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 6.9 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 13.4 | 17.0 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 51.4 | 49.0 | 50.7 | 54.4 | - |
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Cambodia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 4,028 | 0.05 % | Jan 01 |
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