Cambodia Economic Outlook
July 21, 2020
The economy was severely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic in the first half of the year. The crucial garment sector suffered from weak demand in important markets such as the U.S. and EU, with garment exports contracting year-on-year. Moreover, more than 250 garment factories employing 130,000 workers suspended operations, while remittances likely took a hit. In addition, tourism reeled from tight restrictions on visitors and lockdowns abroad, with international arrivals reportedly down by close to 60% in annual terms through May. Turning to the second half of the year, in recent weeks borders with Thailand and Vietnam have reopened, which should be supporting business activity to some degree. However, the economy is still being held back by lingering weakness in key export markets.Cambodia Economic Growth
Economic growth will slow substantially this year, as downbeat external demand and lower remittances pummel disposable income, thus weighing on private consumption. Meanwhile, investment should remain muted amid heightened uncertainties. Prolonged soft external demand and possible further restrictions on market access to the EU and U.S. cloud the outlook. The panel projects the economy to grow 0.2% in 2020, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 5.7% in 2021.Cambodia Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 15.5 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.3 | 16.5 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,160 | 1,278 | 1,385 | 1,510 | 1,631 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 18.0 | 20.2 | 22.2 | 24.5 | 26.9 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.8 | 0.7 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 31.2 | 29.1 | 30.0 | 28.6 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.53 | - | - |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 4,020 | 3,990 | 4,025 | 3,992 | 4,055 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 4,038 | 4,036 | 4,030 | 4,023 | 4,029 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -8.9 | -8.6 | -8.2 | -12.3 | -15.8 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -1.6 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -3.0 | -4.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -4.0 | -3.9 | -4.3 | -5.9 | -7.3 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 9.4 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 15.1 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 13.4 | 14.2 | 15.6 | 18.9 | 22.4 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 14.1 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 15.6 | 15.9 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 10.4 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 21.4 | 18.5 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 6.9 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 13.4 | 17.0 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 51.4 | 49.0 | 50.7 | 54.4 | - |
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Cambodia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 4,028 | 0.05 % | Jan 01 |
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