Cambodia Economic Outlook
October 19, 2021
Available data suggests that activity was weak in H1, likely due to a surge in Covid-19 cases from April and the consequently stronger restrictions imposed to curtail the outbreak, with the country having evaded Covid-19 waves until then. Exports, including garment sales, declined year-on-year in the period, while tourist arrivals also fell. In H2, available data is fairly downbeat, with both exports and tourist arrivals falling year-on-year in July. While one of the region’s fastest vaccination campaigns permitted looser nationwide restrictions from August, another Covid-19 wave in September forced lockdowns in a key tourist region. However, the government’s plans to scrap more restrictions as part of a move to a “new normal” bode well for activity in Q4.Cambodia Economic Growth
The economy will expand robustly in 2022, following higher growth in consumer spending, fixed investment and exports. However, the ongoing pandemic is a downside risk, as is the threat to trade posed by tense relations with the U.S. and EU, although increasingly close ties with China could mitigate potentially lost trade with the West. The panel sees the economy expanding 6.5% in 2022, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 6.4% in 2023.Cambodia Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 15.5 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.3 | 16.5 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,160 | 1,278 | 1,385 | 1,510 | 1,631 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 18.0 | 20.2 | 22.2 | 24.5 | 26.9 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.8 | 0.7 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 31.2 | 29.1 | 30.0 | 28.6 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.53 | - | - |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 4,020 | 3,990 | 4,025 | 3,992 | 4,055 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 4,038 | 4,036 | 4,030 | 4,023 | 4,029 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -8.9 | -8.6 | -8.2 | -12.3 | -15.8 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -1.6 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -3.0 | -4.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -4.0 | -3.9 | -4.3 | -5.9 | -7.3 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 9.4 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 15.1 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 13.4 | 14.2 | 15.6 | 18.9 | 22.4 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 14.1 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 15.6 | 15.9 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 10.4 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 21.4 | 18.5 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 6.9 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 13.4 | 17.0 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 51.4 | 49.0 | 50.7 | 54.4 | - |
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Cambodia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 4,028 | 0.05 % | Jan 01 |
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