Cambodia Economic Forecast

Cambodia Economic Outlook

October 20, 2020

The economy likely took a severe hit in H1 as the Covid-19 pandemic suppressed external demand, particularly from Europe and North America, hammering the crucial textile industry. Nonetheless, exports of non-garment manufacturing goods, particularly of electronics and bicycles, rose notably, cushioning the blow somewhat. Turning to H2, the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in Q3 and the re-opening of main export markets should be supporting the recovery. Meanwhile, on 30 September, the government extended its relief measures, mainly in the form of cash transfers for laid-off workers and tax exemptions to key industries, until year-end, which should support domestic activity. In politics, on 12 October, Cambodia signed a free trade deal with China, boding well for bolstering the country’s exports and attracting FDI. Lastly, in mid-October disastrous floods forced extensive evacuations and temporary factory closures, further weighing on the recovery.

Cambodia Economic Growth

The economy is seen growing in 2021, as improving demand from main trading partners supports the recovery of the crucial textile sector. Moreover, the gradual lifting of travel restrictions should help to revive the tourism industry. That said, the country’s high degree of dollarization, which might impact FDI if attempts are made to reduce it, poses a key downside risk. The panel projects the economy to expand 5.3% in 2021, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before growing 6.7% in 2022.

Cambodia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)15.515.816.016.316.5
GDP per capita (USD)1,1601,2781,3851,5101,631
GDP (USD bn)18.020.222.224.526.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.07.07.07.57.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.6-0.3-0.80.7-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.229.130.028.6-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.23.02.92.51.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.421.441.53-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4,0203,9904,0253,9924,055
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4,0384,0364,0304,0234,029
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.9-8.6-8.2-12.3-15.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.6-1.7-1.8-3.0-4.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.0-3.9-4.3-5.9-7.3
Exports (USD billion)9.410.311.313.015.1
Imports (USD billion)13.414.215.618.922.4
Exports (annual variation in %)14.19.99.315.615.9
Imports (annual variation in %)10.46.19.821.418.5
International Reserves (USD)6.98.411.313.417.0
External Debt (% of GDP)51.449.050.754.4-  

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Cambodia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate4,0280.05 %Jan 01

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