Cambodia Economic Outlook
October 20, 2020
The economy likely took a severe hit in H1 as the Covid-19 pandemic suppressed external demand, particularly from Europe and North America, hammering the crucial textile industry. Nonetheless, exports of non-garment manufacturing goods, particularly of electronics and bicycles, rose notably, cushioning the blow somewhat. Turning to H2, the easing of Covid-19 restrictions in Q3 and the re-opening of main export markets should be supporting the recovery. Meanwhile, on 30 September, the government extended its relief measures, mainly in the form of cash transfers for laid-off workers and tax exemptions to key industries, until year-end, which should support domestic activity. In politics, on 12 October, Cambodia signed a free trade deal with China, boding well for bolstering the country’s exports and attracting FDI. Lastly, in mid-October disastrous floods forced extensive evacuations and temporary factory closures, further weighing on the recovery.Cambodia Economic Growth
The economy is seen growing in 2021, as improving demand from main trading partners supports the recovery of the crucial textile sector. Moreover, the gradual lifting of travel restrictions should help to revive the tourism industry. That said, the country’s high degree of dollarization, which might impact FDI if attempts are made to reduce it, poses a key downside risk. The panel projects the economy to expand 5.3% in 2021, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before growing 6.7% in 2022.Cambodia Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 15.5 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.3 | 16.5 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,160 | 1,278 | 1,385 | 1,510 | 1,631 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 18.0 | 20.2 | 22.2 | 24.5 | 26.9 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.8 | 0.7 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 31.2 | 29.1 | 30.0 | 28.6 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.53 | - | - |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 4,020 | 3,990 | 4,025 | 3,992 | 4,055 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 4,038 | 4,036 | 4,030 | 4,023 | 4,029 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -8.9 | -8.6 | -8.2 | -12.3 | -15.8 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -1.6 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -3.0 | -4.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -4.0 | -3.9 | -4.3 | -5.9 | -7.3 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 9.4 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 15.1 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 13.4 | 14.2 | 15.6 | 18.9 | 22.4 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 14.1 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 15.6 | 15.9 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 10.4 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 21.4 | 18.5 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 6.9 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 13.4 | 17.0 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 51.4 | 49.0 | 50.7 | 54.4 | - |
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Cambodia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 4,028 | 0.05 % | Jan 01 |
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