Cambodia Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020
Following a likely severe hit in H1 due to the impact of the pandemic and associated restrictions, available data suggests that economic activity remains subdued in H2. The tourism industry, which accounts for more than a quarter of GDP, continues to suffer: Despite a significant increase from July, tourist arrivals were still down 95.9% year-on-year in August. Moreover, both investment projects and construction proposals declined markedly in January–August compared to last year, signaling still-downbeat private sector activity. Meanwhile, on a brighter note, merchandise exports grew robustly in the same period on higher shipments of bicycles, electronics and rice. Lastly, on 23 October, the government approved the draft 2021 budget—valued at around USD 8.1 billion, slightly lower than last year’s original budget—aimed at addressing the harsh impact of the pandemic and supporting the recovery.Cambodia Economic Growth
GDP is seen contracting for the first time in over two decades this year, before returning to growth in 2021. Recovering activity in major trading partners should bolster exports and support the crucial textile sector. That said, the country’s high degree of dollarization, which could jeopardize FDI inflows if reversed, and the course of the pandemic remain key downside risks. The panel projects the economy to expand 5.4% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before growing 6.8% in 2022.Cambodia Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 15.5 | 15.8 | 16.0 | 16.3 | 16.5 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,160 | 1,278 | 1,385 | 1,510 | 1,631 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 18.0 | 20.2 | 22.2 | 24.5 | 26.9 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.8 | 0.7 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 31.2 | 29.1 | 30.0 | 28.6 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.2 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.53 | - | - |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 4,020 | 3,990 | 4,025 | 3,992 | 4,055 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 4,038 | 4,036 | 4,030 | 4,023 | 4,029 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -8.9 | -8.6 | -8.2 | -12.3 | -15.8 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -1.6 | -1.7 | -1.8 | -3.0 | -4.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -4.0 | -3.9 | -4.3 | -5.9 | -7.3 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 9.4 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 15.1 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 13.4 | 14.2 | 15.6 | 18.9 | 22.4 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 14.1 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 15.6 | 15.9 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 10.4 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 21.4 | 18.5 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 6.9 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 13.4 | 17.0 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 51.4 | 49.0 | 50.7 | 54.4 | - |
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Cambodia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 4,028 | 0.05 % | Jan 01 |
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