Cambodia Economic Outlook
November 14, 2017Comprehensive new data confirmed the solid performance of the crucial garment and footwear industry in H1: Exports were up markedly in the first half of the year. The tourism sector also logged a solid growth rate for the first nine months of the year compared to the same period a year ago. In its annual Article 4 consultation, the IMF endorsed the positive story, citing increased public spending, robust construction and healthy tourism, which offset a moderation in private investment so far in 2017. It noted, however, the need to strengthen regulations on loan classifications and to gradually increase the reserve requirement of foreign exchange liabilities to build liquidity buffers, as Cambodia’s financial sector remains vulnerable.
Cambodia Economic GrowthRobust GDP growth is expected next year. However, uncertainty surrounding next year’s election could affect domestic activity and incite social unrest. The ongoing crackdown on opposition could affect international trade links; the EU and U.S. have been highly critical. Our panel expects the economy will expand 6.8% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 6.8% in 2019.
Cambodia Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||944||1,024||1,096||1,161||1,269|
|GDP (USD bn)||14.0||15.5||16.8||18.1||20.0|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||7.3||7.5||7.1||7.0||6.9|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-3.8||-2.1||-1.3||-1.6||-2.9|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||32.1||32.1||32.3||32.5||33.0|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||2.9||3.0||3.9||1.2||3.0|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||1.33||1.34||1.42||1.42||1.44|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||3,996||3,970||4,050||4,020||3,990|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||4,035||4,007||4,011||4,038||4,036|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-7.4||-10.4||-9.9||-9.3||-8.3|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-1.0||-1.6||-1.7||-1.7||-1.7|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-3.5||-3.6||-2.6||-3.5||-3.4|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.8||9.2||10.9||8.5||9.3|
|Imports (USD billion)||11.4||12.8||13.5||12.0||12.7|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||16.9||18.0||17.4||14.0||9.1|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||22.0||12.8||5.5||12.1||6.0|
|International Reserves (USD)||4.3||4.5||5.6||6.9||8.4|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||44.8||46.2||47.2||49.2||49.2|
5 years of Cambodia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||4,029||0.05 %||Dec 06|
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