Cambodia Economic Outlook
June 21, 2022Economic recovery likely accelerated in H1 2022 thanks to looser Covid-19 restrictions and stronger regional trade ties. Exports grew 34.5% year on year in January–May, boosted by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade deal which took effect in January. Consumption should have also gained steam as the February–March Covid-19 wave subsided. In addition, the government’s cash handout scheme, providing USD 45 per month to around 2.8 million people living below the poverty line, should be also bolstering domestic demand. Moreover, the revival of international arrivals—up 192% annually between January and April 2022—should be further supporting the economy. In other news, on 6 June the U.S. removed import tariffs on solar panels from Cambodia until 2024, boding well for investment inflows from China—which still faces U.S. tariffs—and export growth.
Cambodia Economic GrowthThe rate of GDP growth should nearly double in 2022. Looser Covid-19 restrictions, a revival in tourism and government stimulus will support consumption. Meanwhile, the RCEP and closer ties with China might boost trade and investment, absent an economic downturn among trading partners. New Covid-19 outbreaks, a weaker fiscal account and rising inflation cloud the outlook. The panel sees the economy expanding 5.0% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 6.1% in 2023.
Cambodia Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,160||1,278||1,385||1,510||1,631|
|GDP (USD bn)||18.0||20.2||22.2||24.5||26.9|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||7.0||7.0||7.0||7.5||7.1|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-0.6||-0.3||-0.8||0.7||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||31.2||29.1||30.0||28.6||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||1.2||3.0||2.9||2.5||1.9|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||1.42||1.44||1.53||-||-|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||4,020||3,990||4,025||3,992||4,055|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||4,038||4,036||4,030||4,023||4,029|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-8.9||-8.6||-8.2||-12.3||-15.8|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-1.6||-1.7||-1.8||-3.0||-4.2|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-4.0||-3.9||-4.3||-5.9||-7.3|
|Exports (USD billion)||9.4||10.3||11.3||13.0||15.1|
|Imports (USD billion)||13.4||14.2||15.6||18.9||22.4|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||14.1||9.9||9.3||15.6||15.9|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||10.4||6.1||9.8||21.4||18.5|
|International Reserves (USD)||6.9||8.4||11.3||13.4||17.0|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||51.4||49.0||50.7||54.4||-|
5 years of Cambodia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||4,028||0.05 %||Jan 01|
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