Brazil Industrial production February 2021

Brazil

Brazil: Industrial activity declines for first time in ten months in February

April 1, 2021

Industrial output dropped 0.7% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in February, which contrasted January's 0.4% increase and marked the first decline since April 2020. February’s result surprised market analysts, who had expected a 0.4% expansion.

Looking at the details of the release, capital and consumer goods output swung to contraction. Moreover, durable consumer goods production dropped at a sharper rate compared to the previous month, while non-durable consumer goods production tipped into contraction.

On an annual basis, factory output rose at a more moderate pace of 0.4% in February (January: +2.3% yoy). Meanwhile, the trend improved, with the annual average variation of industrial production coming in at minus 4.1% in February, up from January's minus 4.2% reading.

Commenting on the outlook, Alberto Ramos, economist at Goldman Sachs, reflected:

“The near term outlook for IP is challenging given the acceleration of inflation, record number of covid cases/fatalities, renewed social distancing and mobility-limiting protocols, and supply chain issues.”

FocusEconomics LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production expanding 6.0% in 2021, which is up 1.0 percentage point from last month's estimate. In 2022, industrial output is projected to grow 3.0%.


Author:, Economist

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Brazil Industrial production Chart


Brazil Industry February 2021 0

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted industrial production and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and FocusEconomics calculations


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