Belarus GDP Q1 2020


Belarus: Economy enters recession in Q2

July 17, 2020

A preliminary estimate revealed the economy shrank 1.7% in the first half of the year. This followed a 0.2% contraction in Q1, suggesting a deeper fall in the second quarter and sending the economy into recession for the first time since 2016.

The decline in Q2 was likely driven by social distancing restrictions, which, albeit mild compared to other countries, will still have weakened domestic activity. Indeed, both freight and passenger transportation appeared hard hit in the second quarter on the effects of the pandemic. Externally, downbeat foreign demand together with lower commodity prices appeared to have suppressed exports. Moreover, industrial production suffered in Q2 as lockdowns abroad took their toll.

FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to shrink 3.5% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2021, the economy is expected to rebound and grow 3.0%.


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