Belarus: Economic recovery picks up pace

The economy continued to gain momentum in the first quarter of this year, with growth accelerating for the fourth consecutive quarter. According to a preliminary estimate released by National Statistical Committee (Belstat) on 18 April, GDP surged 5.1% over the same period of 2017, notably above third quarter’s 4.3%, marking the strongest expansion in over six years.

In Q1 2017, the Belarusian economy emerged from a two-year recession, largely on the back of buoyant industrial production and a stabilizing monetary environment. Although a detail breakdown of growth drivers for Q1 of this year is not yet available, the expansion was seemingly led by a double-digit expansion of manufacturing output, a buoyant external sector and robust domestic demand, which was spurred by a sustained easing of inflationary pressures at the beginning of 2018.

Belarus GDP Forecast

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 2.5% in 2018, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2019, the panel sees GDP increasing 2.0%.