Bahrain Economic Forecast

Bahrain Economic Outlook

May 12, 2020

The economy will likely contract in the first half of this year, as measures introduced in late March to contain the spread of coronavirus, including travel restrictions, the closure of shops and restaurants, and the banning of large public gatherings, have hampered activity; the Bahrain Grand Prix, which was originally scheduled to take place on 20–22 March, was one of the most notable event cancellations. Moreover, a steep fall in oil prices in recent months has dented Bahrain’s public finances and led the government to announce in April that it would reduce spending in the short term, further damaging economic prospects. More positively, however, a partial easing of social distancing measures, including the re-opening of some shops and industrial plants, came into effect from early May.

Bahrain Economic Growth

The economy will contract this year, hampered by the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, the associated containment measures, low oil prices and regional geopolitical instability. Accommodative monetary policy should slow the downturn, however. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to contract 2.4% in 2020, which is down 2.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before expanding 2.0% in 2021.

Bahrain Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)1.41.41.51.51.5
GDP per capita (USD)22,70022,59724,32825,385-  
GDP (USD bn)31.132.235.337.6-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.93.54.11.7-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.510.811.04.7-  
Unemployment Rate3.54.34.1-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-13.0-13.6-10.0-6.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)60.371.879.580.9-  
Money (annual variation in %)3.01.24.22.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.92.81.42.11.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.751.001.752.752.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.380.380.380.380.38
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.380.380.380.380.38
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.4-4.6-4.1-6.5-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.8-1.5-1.4-2.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.8-0.8-0.5-1.1-  
Exports (USD billion)16.512.815.518.0-  
Imports (USD billion)15.713.616.019.0-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-29.6-22.721.416.2-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-20.6-13.518.318.8-  
International Reserves (USD)3.12.22.31.9-  

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Bahrain Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate0.380.03 %Jan 01

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