Bahrain Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

The economy softened in the third quarter, driven by a contraction in the mining and quarrying sector, although this was partially offset by faster growth in the financial sector. Turning to the fourth quarter, the economy likely performed poorly due to a sharp fall in crude oil prices from mid-October. More positively, foreign reserves rose in November, likely boosted by financial support from Gulf neighbors. Meanwhile, in the political arena, the 2019-2022 Government Action Plan received parliament’s stamp of approval in late January. The plan targets growth in the non-oil sector of the economy and aims to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of public spending.

Bahrain Economic Growth

The construction and tourism sectors should keep the economy afloat going forward, while the recently agreed aid package should boost business confidence. However, the introduction of VAT and a tighter fiscal stance will likely hurt domestic demand in the short-term. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 2.5% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.4% in 2020.

Bahrain Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	1.3	1.3	1.4	1.4	1.5
GDP per capita (USD)	25,900	25,319	22,658	22,498	24,232
GDP (USD bn)	32.5	33.3	31.1	32.1	35.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	5.4	4.4	2.9	3.2	3.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)	9.9	-0.7	1.9	0.5	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	16.9	5.9	-8.5	11.0	-
Unemployment Rate	4.3	4.1	4.2	4.3	-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-3.3	-3.6	-13.0	-13.6	-11.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)	41.3	42.0	60.3	72.1	79.8
Money (annual variation in %)	8.2	6.5	2.9	1.2	4.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	3.2	2.7	1.8	2.8	1.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)	0.50	0.50	0.75	1.00	1.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.38
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.38
Current Account (% of GDP)	7.4	4.6	-2.4	-4.6	-3.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	2.4	1.5	-0.8	-1.5	-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)	4.3	3.7	0.8	-0.8	-0.7
Exports (USD billion)	25.5	23.4	16.5	12.8	15.3
Imports (USD billion)	21.2	19.7	15.7	13.6	16.0
Exports (annual variation in %)	10.9	-8.2	-29.6	-22.7	20.2
Imports (annual variation in %)	8.0	-7.0	-20.6	-13.5	18.3
International Reserves (USD)	5.0	5.8	3.1	2.2	2.3

Sample Report

5 years of Bahrain economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Bahrain Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	0.38	0.03 %	Feb 14
Stock Market	1,372	0.04 %	Feb 14

Start Your Free Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Bahrain Economic Outlook

Bahrain Economic Growth

Bahrain Economy Data

Sample Report

Sample Report

Bahrain Facts

Start Your Free Trial

Search form

Sign up for our newsletter