Bahrain Economic Outlook
November 28, 2017The economy’s non-oil sector was robust in H1, expanding 4.7% from a year earlier thanks to stellar performances in the hotels & restaurants, social & personal services and financial services sectors. Business sentiment improved in Q2, and tourist arrivals rose sharply through Q3. This relative dynamism contrasts with the oil sector, which continues to drag on growth due to the impact of OPEC production cuts, although the recent uptick in crude prices should provide some relief. The cavernous budget deficit and shaky external position remain a serious concern, and reportedly led Bahrain to recently approach Gulf allies for financial assistance. Although international reserves rose in September following a bond sale, they remain low and are likely to come under renewed pressure going forward, which could increase doubts over the sustainability of the dollar peg.
Bahrain Economic GrowthGrowth should pick up next year thanks to greater oil production and strong infrastructure spending, with projects including the Alba Line 6 expansion and a new LNG terminal underway. However, ongoing fiscal consolidation will drag on growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 2.7% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2.6% in 2019.
Bahrain Economy Data
5 years of Bahrain economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.38||0.03 %||Dec 06|
|Stock Market||1,265||0.04 %||Dec 06|
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