Argentina Trade January 2020

Argentina

Argentina: Trade surplus narrows in January amid export downturn

February 21, 2020

Exports dipped 0.8% in year-on-year terms in January, contrasting December’s 0.7% uptick. The print was the result of falling exports of manufactured products of agricultural and industrial origin and of fuels and energy, which more than offset higher foreign sales of primary products. In terms of export markets, January’s print mainly resulted from shrinking overseas shipments to Brazil, Chile, the U.S. and Germany more than offsetting rising exports to China, India, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Imports fell 16.1% annually in January, a somewhat softer drop than December’s 20.0% slump. Significant contractions in the imports of passenger motor vehicles, fuels and lubricants, and intermediate goods drove December’s downturn.

Meanwhile, the trade balance surplus narrowed from USD 2.2 billion in December to USD 1.0 billion in January (January 2019: USD 0.4 billion surplus). That said, the 12-month rolling trade balance rose from a USD 16.0 billion surplus in December to a USD 16.6 billion surplus in January (January 2019: USD 2.4 billion shortfall), marking the best result since January 2010.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect exports to expand 3.9% in 2020 and imports to decrease 0.2%, pushing the trade balance to a USD 17.7 billion surplus. For 2021, the panel expects exports to increase 5.3% and imports to rebound 9.7%, with a trade surplus of USD 16.5 billion.


Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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Argentina Trade12m January 20 20

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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