Argentina Trade August 2018


Argentina: Trade deficit widens further in August

September 27, 2018

Exports contracted 1.4% in year-on-year terms in August, contrasting July’s revised 1.8% expansion (previously reported: +1.7% year-on-year). August’s drop reflected an over 20% contraction in exports of primary commodities, only partially offset by strong increases in industrial, and fuels and energy exports, and by a slight expansion in exports of agricultural products.

Imports dropped 0.3% annually in August, swinging from July’s 2.2% uptick. A sharp fall in capital goods and consumption goods imports, only partially compensated by heavier imports of intermediate goods and energy, explain August’s decline.

The trade deficit widened from USD 0.8 billion in July to USD 1.1 billion in August (August 2017: USD 1.1 billion deficit). The 12-month rolling trade deficit came in at USD 11.0 billion (August 2017: USD 4.0 billion shortfall), in line with July’s result.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect exports to expand 5.5% in 2018 and imports to increase 0.3%, pushing the trade balance to a USD 5.5 billion deficit. For 2019, the panel expects exports to increase 9.8% and imports to contract 0.3%, with a trade surplus of USD 0.8 billion.

Author: Massimo Bassetti, Senior Economist

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Argentina Trade Chart

Argentina Trade12m August 2018

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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