Argentina: Trade deficit narrows in June on declining imports
July 26, 2018
Exports fell 1.4% in year-on-year terms in June, an improvement from May’s revised 6.5% year-on-year contraction (previously reported: -6.0% year-on-year). The decrease was driven by a sharp contraction in exports of primary products as a devastating drought in the first quarter hampered the sector. Manufactured industrial goods exports, however, rebounded from last month’s contraction, while exports of fuel and energy expanded at a faster pace.
Annual growth in imports swung from a 6.3% increase in May to a 7.5% contraction in June. The decline reflected a contraction in six of the seven components of the index, with the categories of capital goods, consumer goods and automotive vehicles recorded the steepest drops.
As exports decreased at a slower pace and imports declined faster, the trade deficit narrowed from USD 1.3 billion in May to USD 382 million in June (June 2017: USD 576 million deficit). The 12-month moving average of the trade deficit came in at USD 11.0 billion, slightly below May’s USD 11.3 billion deficit (June 2017: USD 1.2 billion shortfall).
Argentina Trade Balance Forecast
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect exports to grow 5.9% in 2018 and imports to increase 8.9%, pushing the trade balance to a USD 1.8 billion deficit. For 2019, the panel expects exports to increase 6.6% and imports to expand 7.7%, with a trade shortfall of USD 2.8 billion.