Argentina Trade June 2019

Argentina

Argentina: Plunging imports keep trade balance in surplus

July 25, 2019

Exports increased 1.9% in year-on-year terms in June, following May’s 16.5% jump. June’s uptick was the result of soaring exported quantities, while prices continued to fall. It came on the back of skyrocketing exports of fuels and energy products, and of a notable expansion in foreign sales of manufactured products of agricultural origin. On the other hand, exports of manufactured products of industrial origin continued to fall. In terms of export markets, overseas sales to China, Vietnam and the India rose considerably and were only partially counterbalanced by dropping exports to Brazil, the U.S. and Chile.

Imports dived 23.5% annually in June, a somewhat softer fall than May’s 28.0% plunge. Heavy falls in the imports of passenger motor vehicles, fuels and lubricants, and capital and consumption goods, led June’s contraction.

Meanwhile, the trade balance surplus narrowed from a USD 1.4 billion surplus in May to a USD 1.1 billion surplus in June, the 10th consecutive surplus after 20 months in the red (June 2018: USD 0.3 billion deficit). The 12-month rolling trade balance rose from a USD 5.2 billion surplus in May to a USD 6.6 billion surplus in June (June 2018: USD 10.6 billion shortfall), marking the best result since July 2013.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect exports to expand 8.3% in 2019 and imports to decrease 11.8%, pushing the trade balance to a USD 9.0 billion surplus. For 2020, the panel expects exports to increase 6.7% and imports to grow 8.1%, with a trade surplus of USD 8.9 billion.


Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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Argentina Trade12m June 2019

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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