Argentina Trade Balance November 2020

Argentina

Argentina: Merchandise exports continue to plummet in November

January 4, 2021

Merchandise exports tumbled 25.6% in annual terms in November, following October’s 20.7% slump and marking the worst reading since May 2015. The print reflected contractions in three of the four major categories, with exports of primary products and of industrial manufactures collapsing the most. In terms of export markets, November’s print mainly resulted from plunging overseas shipments to Brazil, China, Germany and the U.S. outweighing higher exports to India and Vietnam.

Merchandise surged 20.7% in annual terms in November (October: -2.8% yoy). The jump reflected soaring purchases of capital and intermediate goods as well as of motor vehicles.

Meanwhile, the trade surplus came in at USD 0.2 billion in November, below October’s USD 0.7 billion surplus and the weakest reading in over two years (November 2019: USD 2.5 billion surplus). Lastly, the 12-month rolling trade balance declined from October’s USD 17.0 billion surplus to a USD 14.7 billion surplus in November (November 2019: USD 15.2 billion surplus).

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect merchandise exports to increase 7.6% in 2021 and merchandise imports to expand 13.3%, pushing the trade balance to a USD 16.5 billion surplus. For 2022, the panel expects merchandise exports to increase 4.3% and merchandise imports to grow 7.1%, with a trade surplus of USD 16.0 billion.


Author: Massimo Bassetti, Senior Economist

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Argentina Trade12m November 20 20

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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