Argentina: Inflation accelerates on lagged pass-through effects from a weak peso
November 16, 2018
According to the National Statistical Institute (INDEC), national consumer prices rose 5.4% over the previous month in October, coming in below September’s 6.5% month-on-month increase, which had marked the fastest increase in prices since April 2016. October's reading again reflected lagged pass-through effects from a weaker peso in September, which translated into a broad-based increase in all 12 components of the index in October. Nevertheless, these effects are expected to wane in November as the peso strengthened in the previous month. The strongest price increases were recorded for: housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; transport, mainly due to higher public tariffs and fuel prices; and food and non-alcoholic beverages. Meanwhile, inflation jumped from 40.5% in September to 45.9% in October, the highest print since July 2016.Inflation is expected to be 28.0% at the end of 2019, which is up 0.9 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Inflation is projected to fall to 18.6% at the end of 2020.