Argentina: Inflation eases in September from August
Latest reading: Consumer prices rose 31.8% on a year-on-year basis in September, following a 33.6% rise in the previous month and in line with market expectations. Inflation has now declined for 17 straight months.
Relative to the prior month’s figures, there were milder price pressures for transportation (+27.4% on a year-on-year basis vs +27.9% in August), food and non-alcoholic beverages (+27.3% vs +27.8% in August), restaurants and hotels (+48.7% vs +52.5% in August) and housing and utilities (+49.3% vs +55.4% in August).
Finally, consumer prices increased 2.08% in September on a month-on-month basis, following a 1.88% increase in the previous month.
Taken together, the September data suggests a limited pass-through from recent peso depreciation, likely as a result of weak economic activity and tight fiscal and monetary policy.
Panelist insight: On the near-term outlook, BBVA analysts said:
“The month of October began with scheduled increases that will affect regulated prices, such as adjustments to prepaid healthcare plans, cable and internet services, a new round of hikes in public transportation fares, and adjustments in public utility rates. High-frequency data from the first weeks of October show an acceleration in price dynamics compared to the end of September. Nevertheless, the consistency of the current macroeconomic fundamentals allows us to anticipate an inflation level similar to that of September.”