Argentina Economic Activity May 2018


Argentina: Economic activity growth plummets to a near nine-year low in May

July 24, 2018

The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) contracted 5.8% in annual terms in May, which was below the revised 0.6% fall recorded in April (previously reported: -0.9% year-on-year) and marked the worst performance in nearly nine years.

The contraction came on the back of a significant decline in agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry activity, which plunged 35.2% in May (April: -30.3% yoy; previously reported: -30.8% yoy). The sector has been hit hard in recent months by the effects of the drought on crop yields. In addition, growth in the manufacturing industry fell 1.4% in May (April: +2.8% yoy; previously reported: +3.1% yoy), and construction activity growth slowed to 4.4% (April: +10.3% yoy; previously reported: +10.2% yoy). Meanwhile, activity in the financial intermediation sector accelerated to 10.8% growth in May (April: +8.4% yoy; previously reported: +9.4% yoy).

A seasonally-adjusted month-on-month comparison shows that economic activity contracted 1.4% in May following April’s 2.8% drop.

Lastly, average economic activity decreased to 2.7% in May from 3.5% in April.

Argentina GDP Forecast

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect economic growth of 0.9% in 2018, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, panelists see the economy expanding 2.1%.


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Argentina Economic Activity Chart

Argentina Economic Activity May 2018

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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