Argentina: Economic activity contracts at sharpest pace in close to 10 years in November
January 25, 2019
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) contracted 7.5% in annual terms in November, a sharper drop than the revised 4.2% fall recorded in October (previously reported: -4.0% year-on-year). The reading marked the eighth consecutive month of decline in year-on-year terms.
November’s fall came on the back of broad-based contractions in the economic sectors. The most significant falls were recorded in the manufacturing, wholesale and retail sales, and construction sectors. Moreover, the performances of the sectors were more negative than seen in the previous month.
A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity shrunk 2.3% in seasonally-adjusted terms in November, swinging from October’s revised 0.6% uptick (previously reported: +0.9% month-on-month). Finally, the annual average variation in economic activity was equal to a 1.7% contraction in November, following a 0.7% drop in October.
Argentina GDP Forecast
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see the economy contracting 0.5% in 2019, down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before rebounding to 2.7% growth in 2020.