Argentina Economic Activity March 2020

Argentina

Argentina: Economic activity contacts at sharpest pace since May 2009 in March amid lockdown

May 21, 2020

The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) plunged 11.5% year-on-year in March (February: -2.4% yoy), marking the worst reading since May 2009.

In terms of productive sectors, March’s dive was largely driven by freefalling production in the fishing, construction and hotels and restaurants sectors. Moreover, the manufacturing and transport and communications sectors also recorded sharp contractions.

On a month-on-month basis, activity plummeted 9.8% in March, which was notably below February’s 1.3% fall. The reading marked the worst result on record. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of coming in at minus 2.0% in March, down from February's minus 1.7%.

FocusEconomics analysts see the economy in recession this year, contracting 6.9%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. In 2021, analysts see GDP finally rebounding, with growth coming in at 3.5%.


Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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Argentina Economic Activity March 20 20

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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