Argentina Economic Activity March 2019


Argentina: Contraction in economic activity sharpens in March, points to sharp fall in Q1

May 23, 2019

The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) dived 6.8% in annual terms in March, a sharper drop than the 4.7% fall recorded in February. The reading ends a short-lived three-month streak of moderating economic contractions.

March’s deterioration came mainly on the back of sharper contractions in the industrial, construction, and wholesale and retail sales sectors. The only bright spot was the agricultural sector, whose production gained considerable traction in the month.

A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity dropped 1.3% in seasonally-adjusted terms in March, contrasting February’s revised 0.1% uptick (previously reported: +0.2% month-on-month). Meanwhile, the annual average variation in economic activity worsened from a 4.1% contraction in February to a 4.8% fall in March.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see the economy contracting 1.1% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s estimate, before rebounding to 2.4% growth in 2020.

Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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Argentina Economic Activity Chart

Argentina Economic Activity March 2019

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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