Angola: Inflation decelerates to near two-year low in September
Latest reading: Consumer prices rose 18.2% on a year-on-year basis in September, down from 18.9% in August, moderating for the fourteenth consecutive month and reaching its joint-lowest level since October 2023.
Relative to the prior month’s figures, there were lower price pressures for food and beverages (+18.5% in year-on-year terms vs +19.2% in August), health (+22.1% vs +23.7% in August), housing, water electricity and fuel (+16.2% vs +17.1% in August) and clothing (+18.4% vs +19.6% in August). In contrast, price pressures increased for transport (+21.4% vs +21.1% in August).
Finally, consumer prices rose at a slower pace of 1.01% in month-on-month terms in September, following a 1.09% rise in the previous month.
Outlook: Our Consensus is for inflation to maintain its downward trend all the way through Q4 2026. For 2025 as a whole, inflation will cool from 2024. Improved food supply and still-elevated interest rates will more than offset upward pressures from the removal of fuel subsidies,part of the IMF-backed reforms to strengthen public finances ahead of substantial debt repayments.
Looking further ahead, our panelists see average inflation gradually decelerating through 2029 and stabilizing in 2030. Tighter-than-expected monetary conditions pose a downside risk.