Angola Commodities September 2022

Angola

Angola: Cabinda prices moderate further in August

September 11, 2022

The average price for Cabinda oil fell to USD 106.6 per barrel (pb) in August, down from July’s USD 119.4 pb. This marked a 10.7% decrease month on month. However, prices were still up 50.3% year on year.

Oil prices decreased during the previous month amid deteriorating global prospects. Demand for oil was dented by an economic slowdown in key customer China—partly prompted by new Covid-19 restrictions—and decades-high inflation in Western countries.

Turning to production, Cabinda oil output dropped slightly to 1.18 million barrels per day (mbpd) in August from July’s 1.19 mbpd. Production among other OPEC+ members diverged. Output also decreased in the UAE, while it was stable in Iran and Iraq. In contrast, production rose in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Global oil prices should remain steady on average for the remainder of the year. Rising U.S. production and broadly stable OPEC+ output will support prices amid fears of worldwide recession. Key factors to watch are new sanctions on Russia, surprise changes in OPEC+ quotas and an Iranian nuclear deal.

Turning to output, our panelists expect Angolan oil production to increase in 2022 compared with the previous year, which will boost economic growth.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect oil production to reach 1.17 mbpd in 2022. In 2023, the panel sees crude output at 1.16 mbpd.


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Angola Commodity September 2022 3

Note: Price of the Cabinda oil basket in USD per barrel.
Source: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).


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