Angola Commodities November 2018

Angola

Angola: Cabinda crude oil prices tank in November

December 12, 2018

The average price of Angola’s Cabinda crude oil fell from a four-year high of USD 82.0 per barrel (pb) in October to USD 65.3 pb in November. The print marked the lowest price so far this year and the largest month-on-month deterioration in nearly four years. November’s price was 20.3 % below the average price observed in the previous month and wasbut 3.3% higher in year-on-year terms.

In early November, the U.S. announced waivers to eight countries allowing them to continue purchasing Iranian oil after the implementation of U.S. sanctions on 4 November. This sent global oil prices plummeting, as an expected supply crunch from an anticipated fall in Iranian oil exports was partly avoided. Furthermore, oil production in Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S.—the world’s top three oil producers—was close to all-time highs, adding further downward pressure on prices. On the demand side, incoming data signals cooling activity growth. The Chinese economy continued to decelerate in November, Japan recorded a contraction in the third quarter, while third-quarter GDP data for the Euro area was the weakest since 2014. This likely fuelledfueled investors’ concerns over the future appetite for crude oil.

Oil production in Angola edged up from the previous month’s 1.55 mbpd to 1.60 mbpd in November, marking a nine-month high. Meanwhile, crude oil production among OPEC countries remained broadly stable at the previous month’s 32.97 million barrels per day (mbpd) in November, according to the OPEC report published on 12 December.

Looking ahead, the sustained increase in output by major oil producers and weakening global demand will likely continue to weigh on global oil prices in the coming year.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect oil production to reach 1.71 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2019. In 2020, the panel sees crude output increasing to 1.76 mbpd.


Author:, Economist

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Angola Commodity November 2018

Note: Price of the Cabinda oil basket in USD per barrel
Source: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).


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