Angola Commodities December 2018

Angola

Angola: Cabinda crude oil prices continue to slide in December

January 18, 2019

The average price of Angola’s Cabinda crude oil fell from USD 65.3 per barrel (pb) in November to USD 56.6 pb in December. The reading marked the lowest price since September 2017 and the second consecutive month of sliding oil prices. December’s price was 13.3 % below the average price observed in the previous month and 12.6% lower in year-on-year terms.

Global oil prices continued to freefall throughout December against the backdrop of heightened concerns of a new global oil glut. Washington’s decision to grant waivers to Iranian oil buyers, coupled with strong oil production by OPEC, Russia and the U.S. propped up fears of excess supply weighing on prices. In addition, demand was bleak at the end of 2018, as uncertainty over the global economic outlook remained elevated amid disappointing data from China and its ongoing trade dispute with the U.S., putting further downward pressure on prices.

Oil production in Angola fell from the previous month’s 1.60 million barrels per day (mbpd) to 1.57 mbpd in December. Meanwhile, crude oil production among OPEC countries fell from 32.33 (mbpd) in November to 31.58 mbpd in December according to the OPEC report published on 17 January.

Oil prices are expected to recover some lost ground in the coming months thanks to tighter global supply following the agreed oil production cut by OPEC+ countries. However, a potential global economic slowdown and still-elevated production will prevent prices from rising significantly.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect oil production to reach 1.69 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2019. In 2020, the panel sees crude output increasing to 1.73 mbpd.


Author:, Economist

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Angola Commodity December 2018

Note: Price of the Cabinda oil basket in USD per barrel
Source: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).


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