FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
We are pleased to announce the winners of our 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards. The Awards recognize the most accurate forecasters for the main macroeconomic indicators across 87 countries and 29 commodity prices in 2016. Details of the awards and the list of winners are available at: www.focus-economics.com/awards.
To identify the top economic forecasters, FocusEconomics assessed the accuracy of the forecasts submitted by over 350 institutions to its Consensus Forecast survey over the course of 24 months. Among the winning institutions are the world’s most renowned international banks and economic research firms such as BMI Research, Capital Economics, Citigroup Global Markets, Deutsche Bank, EIU, HSBC, JPMorgan and Oxford Economics, along with many others.
The Economist Intelligence Unit and HSBC Research topped the list with 40 and 28 first place rankings, respectively, for the main indicators in various countries and commodity prices. FocusEconomics warmly congratulates the winning analysts for their high-quality research and for having provided the most accurate forecasts.
“The Analyst Forecast Awards demonstrate the outstanding work of the economic analysts on our panel. We are pleased to recognize the accuracy of the forecasts and the value of economic research provided by the institutions participating in our Consensus Forecast,” says Arne Pohlman, Chief Economist at FocusEconomics.
FocusEconomics surveys over 900 economic experts from national and international banks, top financial institutions and economic research companies every month to obtain their projections for the main macroeconomic indicators and commodity prices and elaborate the Consensus Forecast, which is the lynchpin of the company’s monthly FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports.
Awards Methodology
The FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards are yearly awards that recognize the analysts whose forecasts for the period are the most accurate. We assess the accuracy of the forecasts submitted to our Consensus Forecast survey by ranking forecasters according to the average of their discounted forecast errors. Errors are defined as the absolute difference between an individual forecast and the actual result of the macroeconomic indicator/price of the commodity.
To identify the best forecasters, we use forecasts submitted to our monthly survey over the course of 24 months*. For example, in assessing the forecast accuracy for 2016 GDP, we take into consideration forecasts collected in the January 2015–December 2016 period. The result we use corresponds to the first official estimate, the release of which varies according to the frequency of the indicator.
The absolute error (absolute difference between the individual forecast and the outturn of the indicator) is then discounted so that an error at the beginning of our forecasting cycle (January 2015) has less weight than an error at the end of the cycle (December 2016). This ensures that the forecasters are rewarded for having smaller errors at the beginning of the period when less information is available and hence forecasting is more difficult. Finally, panelists are ranked according to the average of the discounted absolute errors over the last 24 months. The highest ranked analyst is the one with the lowest average discounted error.
To be considered for the award, the panelist must have submitted a minimum number of forecasts over the course of the period. We calculate forecast accuracy rankings for six main macroeconomic indicators (GDP, Fiscal Balance, Inflation, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Current Account) in 87 countries.
In addition to giving awards for each specific macroeconomic indicator mentioned above, we also provide a general ranking of the forecasts for the country, which is estimated by calculating weighted average ranking across all the indicators with GDP and inflation having slightly greater weight than the remaining indicators.
*For Sub-Saharan Africa the forecasting cycle is 20 months.
Note on the methodology for commodities:
To identify the best forecasters of commodity prices, we use forecasts submitted to our monthly survey over the course of 12 months. For example, in assessing the forecast accuracy for the 2016 year-end price of copper we take into consideration forecasts collected in the January 2016–December 2016 period. The outturn we use corresponds to the price at the end of 2016.
The absolute error (absolute difference between the individual forecast and the outturn of the price) is then discounted so that an error at the beginning of our forecasting cycle (January 2016) has less weight than an error at the end of the cycle (December 2016). This ensures that the forecasters are rewarded for having smaller errors at the beginning of the period when less information is available and hence forecasting is more difficult. Finally, panelists are ranked according to the average of the discounted absolute errors over the last 12 months. The highest ranked analyst is the one with the lowest average discounted error.
Further information is available at www.focus-economics.com.
Date: May 25, 2017

Featured Posts
Tags
Spain Canada Portugal TPP Unemployment rate European Union Emerging Markets Venezuela G7 Italy Africa Infographic Brexit Asia Precious Metals Commodities Mexico Trade UK Base Metals Commodities Greece Energy Commodities Consensus Forecast Oil oil prices India IMF Gold Investment Vietnam South Africa Exchange Rate Cryptocurrency Eastern Europe United Kingdom Ukraine Latin America Russia Brazil USA MENA Argentina France Inflation Nordic Economies Forex Agricultural Commodities United States Japan Eurozone Commodities Iran Germany Economic Growth (GDP) Turkey Banking Sector Tunisia Major Economies Euro Area precious metals Sub-Saharan Africa Healthcare OPEC Australia Company News Colombia Housing Market Bitcoin ChinaTwitter @FocusEconomics
Panama's economy is set to regain momentum this year on the back of the ramp-up in production at the Cobre Panama m… https://t.co/1VSuAjWx9r
1 hour ago
Measures underway to improve Colombia's fiscal account will likely restrain the pace of expansion in 2019. Read mor… https://t.co/iCfPnVCrmE
17 hours ago
Venezuela's economy is seen contracting 10.3% in 2019, which is down 1.9 percentage points from last month's foreca… https://t.co/lkB8zhWaHY
19 hours ago
Precious metal prices are seen rising 6.1% in Q4 2019 compared to the same period of 2018 (previous month: +4.8% ye… https://t.co/42pkJS5aeo
22 hours ago
Dominican GDP is seen growing 5.1% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast. Find out… https://t.co/AQay04xqi3
1 day ago
Blog archive
- Brexit Scenarios: Consensus of 14 Economic Analysts
- Sweden just formed a new government and approved its 2019 budget: what does it mean for the economy?
- Which countries have the highest public debt levels?
- Predictions for the global economy in 2019 from 13 experts
- Gurdgiev: Predictions for the global economy in 2019
- Daniel Lacalle's ideas for 2019: Change of cycle.
- Vietnam Poised to Profit from Free Trade Agreement Opportunities
- Canada in 2019: Interview with a Top Economic Forecaster
- Pound Sterling 2019 Exchange Rate: Projections from Leading Analysts
- Expectations for Latin America’s Economy in 2019
- Ethiopia and Rwanda: From Destruction to Development
- Key commodities trends to look out for in 2019
- What drove Gulf neighbors to bail out Bahrain?
- The Four Financial Bubbles and Their Impact on the U.S. Economy
- The Poorest Countries in the World
- Italy: The sick man of Europe
- What does Bolsonaro's presidential win mean for Brazil's economic outlook?
- The World's Top 10 Largest Economies
- In Latin America, taxpayers are tapped to shoulder the burden of a bank bailout
- How and when will the next financial crisis happen? - 26 experts weigh in
- China and Africa: A partnership under the spotlight
- The conditions are ripe for a Global Financial Crisis 2.0
- Uncertainty, instability and fear haunt a generation of Argentinians
- 5 things: Brazil's economic downturn and what to expect going forward
- 5 things: What to expect for Mexico's economy in 2019
- Emerging Market Currency Crisis: Everything you need to know
- Which ASEAN countries are most exposed in the event of a U.S.-China trade war?
- 75 Top Economics Influencers to Follow
- Emerging Markets Economic Outlook 2018 and 2019
- The Faces Behind Latin America’s Key Institutions
- 2019 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Is your cup of coffee about to get more expensive going in to 2019?
- The Economic Implications of an Aging Global Population
- Can the Wisdom of the Crowds predict the results of the 2018 World Cup?
- Railway Mania: The Largest Speculative Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of
- From Riches to Rags: Have Cryptocurrencies Crashed for Good?
- Investment looks to Latin America, but forecasts are not encouraging
- Turkey: Erdogan has cemented his grip on power - now what about the economy?
- How can Latin America’s business environment benefit from technological change?
- Mexico: A look at the past, present and future as elections yield AMLO victory
- Italy’s New Populist Government and the Eurozone: Prelude to a Crisis?
- Latin America moves toward increased integration as U.S. protectionism grows
- How can Latin America increase productivity without affecting the quality of employment?
- How will Saudi Arabia's economy benefit from lifting the women's driving ban?
- Which countries are the most prepared for the upcoming digital revolution?
- India Under Pressure from the U.S. on Trade Policy
- The Story of Steel
- Latin America is the World Leader in eCommerce Growth Despite Serious Challenges
- What the TPP means for trade in Latin America
- Elections in Russia: Analysis and Implications
- Nearly a Third of Latin Americans Have No Right to a Pension
- A Look at Healthcare Models Around the World
- Newly-elected Chilean President Sebastian Piñera faces a myriad of challenges - economic and otherwise
- The Economic Effects of Trade Protectionism
- Regional Disparity: The Dark Side of Inequality in Latin America
- Coal: The story of the world's most abundant fossil fuel
- Venezuela's Electoral Conundrum
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- Trump's 1st Year: 95 Analysts Surveyed on U.S. Economy
- The Latest on China and What's in Store for 2018
- An in-depth look at the Eurozone’s booming economy and the challenges that lurk in the shadows
- Increasing poverty in Latin America takes a breather thanks to improving economic dynamics
- What will be the most miserable economies in 2018?
- Is Spain doing enough to address its high youth unemployment rate?
- Has Latin America gone far enough in reducing barriers to international trade?
- Commodities Outlook: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Lead & Tin
- 21 experts tell us what the future looks like for cryptocurrencies and blockchain
- Turkish lira plummets to all-time low on Erdogan’s monetary feud and tense U.S.-Turkey relations
- Copper: The first metal mastered by man
- The Mercosur-EU Free Trade Agreement: Obstacles & Opportunities
- Nigerian Economy Still Treading Water Thanks to Oil Sector
- Elections in Chile: What the results could mean for the economy
- QE’s Untold Story: A Chart That Fed Correspondents Need To Investigate
- Holland’s fragile one-seat majority government targets economic growth at the expense of fiscal sustainability
- South Africa: Economy at a tipping point?
- Latin American Commodities: What’s behind the increase in demand and prices?
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- Spain-Catalonia: 7 economic experts weigh in on how the situation will affect the outlook
- How well is Spain's labor market doing since the crisis?
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- How vulnerable is Latin America to economic crises today?
- Iron ore facts and common questions answered
- The bulging economic costs of obesity
- How much investment is needed to salvage Latin America’s crumbling infrastructure?
- A Look at the Potential Impact of Brexit on the Dutch Economy
- Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017
- Why is foreign direct investment in Latin America falling again?
- Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?
- Bounty or burden? The impact of refugees on European economies is far from clear
- What’s the future of U.S.-Latin America trade relations?
- Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
- Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit