Domestic Demand in United Kingdom
United Kingdom - Domestic Demand
Economic activity growth slows in November
GDP rose 0.1% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in November (October: +0.5% mom). November's reading was driven by a slowdown in the services sector and a contraction in manufacturing. However, the GDP figure was above market expectations, supported by a strong performance from the food and beverages subsector–which was in turn boosted by the FIFA World Cup.
On a rolling quarterly basis, GDP fell at a softer rate of 0.3% in September–November (August–October: -0.4% qoq).
Taken together, the October–November data bodes well for the Q4 GDP outturn, and suggests activity is holding up despite elevated inflation and interest rates. That said, the economy likely still registered a contraction in December as a result of strike disruption.
On the outlook, the EIU said:
“Even if the UK avoids a recession when fourth-quarter GDP data are published, we continue to believe that the economic outlook in 2023 is weak relative to European peers. This is due to the UK's overreliance on private consumption for growth, which will be affected by declining consumer spending. With the outlook for manufacturing remaining weak, we forecast that full-year GDP will contract in 2023.”
FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to contract 0.8% in 2023, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2024, GDP will expand by 0.9%.
United Kingdom - Domestic Demand Data
|Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)||2.9||2.4||1.2||1.3||1.6|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
United Kingdom Facts
|Bond Yield||0.83||-3.04 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||1.33||-0.35 %||Jan 01|
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January 24, 2023
The S&P Global/CIPS Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 47.8 in January, down from December's 49.0.
January 23, 2023
Consumer confidence fell to minus 45.0 in January from December's minus 42.0.
January 18, 2023
Inflation dropped to 10.5% in December from November’s 10.7%.
January 17, 2023
According to the ONS, in September–November the unemployment rate registered 3.7%, while the redundancy rate was below pre-pandemic levels.
January 13, 2023
GDP rose 0.1% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in November (October: +0.5% mom).