Yemen Economic Outlook
October 4, 2016The armed conflict between the Saudi-supported government of Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi and the Iranian-allied Houthi rebels, which back former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, shows no signs of coming to an end. The tentative attempts at a truce since April have not produced any progress on the ground, failing repeatedly to stop the fighting that has been ongoing for well over a year and leaving the economy prostrated by war. In addition, the production of oil and gas has been severely disrupted, and low energy prices have exacerbated the situation of public finances. In a more positive development, however, the Aden oil refinery resumed operations in September, after remaining inactive for more than one year. The reopening of the oil refinery follows the return to activity of the Masila oilfields, the first such reopening since the civil war began.
Yemen Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,237||1,239||1,344||1,285||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||31.1||32.1||35.8||35.3||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||-12.8||2.0||3.2||-0.2||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-4.7||-5.4||-8.0||-||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||44.3||52.9||55.4||-||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||19.6||9.9||11.0||8.2||8.1|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||20.00||18.00||15.00||15.00||15.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||213.8||214.4||214.9||215.0||215.2|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||215.4||215.6||215.0||215.0||215.0|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-1.7||-1.0||-4.3||-||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-0.5||-0.3||-1.5||-||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||0.6||-3.5||-2.9||-||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||9.1||7.8||7.8||-||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||8.5||11.4||10.8||-||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||19.2||-14.4||0.4||-||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||0.8||32.9||-5.3||-||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||4.5||6.2||5.3||-||-|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||20.7||23.6||21.3||21.9||-|
5 years of Yemen economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||250.1||0.0 %||Oct 26|
Yemen Economic Growth
October 4, 2016Panelists expect the economy to contract 6.6% this year, hit by the effects of the war. They foresee that military pressures will force the Houthi rebels to retreat from most of the areas now under their control, allowing oil production to resume. For 2017, the panel forecast a 5.7% expansion.