United Kingdom Labor Market October 2022

United Kingdom

United Kingdom: Labor market remains resilient at outset of Q4

November 15, 2022

According to the ONS, in July–September the unemployment rate registered 3.6%. This was up from 3.5% in the previous rolling quarter but still below pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, employment continued to increase in October and job vacancies were at historically high levels, despite declining in the three months to October. Wages fell again in real terms due to double-digit inflation.

Looking ahead, the labor market is set to lose steam as economic momentum weakens, with the unemployment rate forecast to rise above 4% next year.

On the latest figures, ING’s James Smith said:

“Hiring demand is undoubtedly falling back now, and we can see that most clearly in a downtrend in unfilled vacancy numbers. But so far this is manifesting itself more as a hiring freeze rather than via layoffs. Redundancy numbers, be they planned or actual, are showing little-to-no sign of increasing from their lows.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the unemployment rate to average 3.9% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.2% in 2023.


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