Turkmenistan Economic Outlook
October 4, 2016September’s constitutional amendments enable authoritarian President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow to remain in power forever as the 70-year age limit for presidential candidates was scrapped and the presidential term was stretched from five to seven years. The leader’s move to consolidate power comes amid an ongoing economic slowdown in the gas-rich and export-dependent country due to depressed energy prices and the ongoing recession in Russia. From January to July, GDP expanded 6.2% over the same period last year. International reserves, the currency and public accounts are under pressure. In an effort to protect its fiscal accounts, the government has cut some planned investment and, according to recent media reports, it is considering scaling back the welfare system.
Turkmenistan Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||5,291||6,254||7,144||8,265||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||29.2||35.1||40.7||47.9||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||14.7||11.1||10.2||10.3||6.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||3.6||6.3||1.3||0.8||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||10.0||18.1||21.1||16.8||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||5.3||5.3||6.8||6.0||7.7|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||2.85||2.85||2.85||2.85||3.40|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||2.85||2.85||2.85||2.85||3.49|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||2.0||0.0||-7.3||-5.8||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||0.6||0.0||-3.0||-2.8||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||5.4||6.6||7.0||7.2||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||13.0||16.5||17.0||17.5||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||7.6||9.9||10.0||10.3||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||100||26.9||3.0||2.9||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||33.3||30.3||1.0||3.0||-|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||1.6||1.4||1.2||0.9||-|
5 years of Turkmenistan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||3.50||0.30 %||Oct 21|
Turkmenistan Economic Growth
October 4, 2016Weak exports and remittances and fiscal consolidation measures will drag on GDP this year. That said, the government’s efforts to promote import substitution and to diversify the economy and gas export routes will support growth. Panelists expect GDP to grow 4.8% in 2016, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.4% in 2017.