Turkmenistan Economic Forecast

Turkmenistan Economic Outlook

November 2, 2021

After a downbeat 2020, with a recent IMF release putting the overall GDP contraction for the year at 3.4%, available data for the first nine months of 2021 is slightly more positive. Activity likely strengthened in early April amid the easing of Covid-19 restrictions, while recent customs data shows that exports to China rebounded in annual terms in January–September fueled by higher energy prices, boding well for the external sector. Moreover, Fitch Ratings’ move in August to assign the country a credit rating should boost international investors’ confidence, potentially attracting foreign investment ahead. However, a reported surge in new Covid-19 cases, while not acknowledged by official sources, seemingly led authorities to tighten restrictions in mid-July and again in early August, which could be suppressing domestic activity in H2.

Turkmenistan Economic Growth

Economic growth is set to remain upbeat next year, albeit softening from this year’s projected expansion. GDP should benefit from rising global demand for energy exports, while large-scale infrastructure projects will draw in investment. In turn, robust exports may ease some downward pressure on the manat and relieve households’ finances, boding well for consumption. FocusEconomics Consensus panelists see GDP growing 4.7% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2023, the panel also projects GDP growth of 4.0%.

Turkmenistan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)5.65.65.75.86.0
GDP per capita (USD)6,4256,6966,6507,083-  
GDP (USD bn)35.837.838.040.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.56.26.56.26.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.7-2.4-2.8-0.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)21.824.128.829.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.43.68.013.213.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3.403.503.503.503.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.493.433.503.503.50
Current Account (% of GDP)-15.6-20.2-10.45.5-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.6-7.2-4.4-3.5-3.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.52.73.67.26.8
Exports (USD billion)9.67.97.69.69.7
Imports (USD billion)6.15.34.02.42.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-15.2-17.2-4.125.91.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.3-13.2-24.5-40.923.9
External Debt (% of GDP)1.01.32.12.2-  

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Turkmenistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate3.500.01 %Jan 01

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