Japan Economic Outlook
September 27, 2016Stronger growth in investment due to high corporate profits and cheap borrowing prompted the economy to fare better than initially expected in Q2. GDP expanded 0.7% in Q2 over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted annualized terms (SAAR). While the print was above the 0.2% increase reported in the first estimate, it was markedly below the 2.1% expansion in Q1. More recent data suggest that although growth will remain sluggish in the foreseeable future, the economy will benefit from a two-decade low unemployment rate and fresh spending envisaged in this year’s supplementary budget. On the downside, a strong JPY is hurting the external sector: exports contracted for the eleventh consecutive month in August.
Japan Economy Data
5 years of Japan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||-0.06||10.91 %||Oct 20|
|Exchange Rate||104.0||0.49 %||Oct 20|
|Stock Market||17,236||1.39 %||Oct 20|
Japan Economic Growth
September 27, 2016The Central Bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy, the government’s proactive fiscal stimulus and a low unemployment rate are expected to support growth this year. However, a strong yen remains the main downside risk to growth. Overall, the lack of profound economic reforms is clouding Japan’s long-term growth prospects. Analysts see the economy growing 0.6% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's projection. Next year, they see growth at 0.8%.
Japan Economic News
October 12, 2016
Core machinery orders (a leading indicator of capital spending over a three- to six-month period) declined for the first time in three months in August.
October 4, 2016
Consumer sentiment rose from August’s 42.0 to 43.0 in September.
October 3, 2016
According to the Bank of Japan’s quarterly TANKAN business survey, sentiment among large manufacturers was stable at 6 in Q3.
September 30, 2016
In August, the core consumer price index was flat compared to the previous month, which was above the 0.2% decline in July.
September 30, 2016
In August, industrial production expanded 1.5% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted July’s 0.4% decrease (previously reported: 0.0% month-on-month).