Honduras Economic Forecast

Honduras Economic Outlook

June 14, 2022

Economic growth will have cooled notably in the opening quarter of the year. The Central Bank’s monthly index of economic activity registered softer growth on average in the period. The manufacturing sector lost steam in Q1. Additionally, consumer price inflation picked up pace through March, eating into consumers’ pockets and boding ill for private spending. Moderating growth in goods imports further points to easing domestic demand in the period. However, merchandise exports accelerated and drove a narrowing of the goods trade deficit; the external sector should have weighed on overall growth to a lesser extent. Turning to Q2, household consumption will have continued to be hindered by greater inflation, which rose to an over 13-year high in April.

Honduras Economic Growth

The economy will expand at a softer pace this year amid the military conflict in Ukraine and a tougher base of comparison. The war has pushed up global energy and food prices, eroding purchasing power. However, a rollback of Covid-19 restrictions and resilient remittance inflows should provide some respite to the economy. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy expanding 3.6% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and growing 3.3% in 2023.

Honduras Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)9.09.19.39.49.6
GDP per capita (USD)2,3792,3962,5022,5532,621
GDP (USD bn)21.321.823.224.125.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.83.94.83.72.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.64.14.14.33.6
Investment (annual variation in %)22.4-5.211.84.3-15.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.0-2.7-2.7-2.1-2.5
Money (annual variation in %)7.815.812.87.411.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.43.34.74.14.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.22.73.94.34.4
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)20.0218.7918.2417.43-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)22.0823.2023.5424.2724.59
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21.6022.7123.4223.8524.46
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.6-2.6-0.8-5.3-0.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-0.6-0.2-1.3-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.9-2.6-2.7-3.7-3.2
Exports (USD billion)8.28.08.78.68.7
Imports (USD billion)11.210.611.412.311.9
Exports (annual variation in %)1.3-3.29.3-1.11.2
Imports (annual variation in %)0.8-5.58.07.9-3.3
International Reserves (USD)3.83.84.74.85.7
External Debt (% of GDP)35.034.336.937.437.8

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Honduras Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate24.59-0.03 %Jan 01

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