Ethiopia Economic Outlook
October 18, 2016The IMF, in a recent revision of Ethiopia’s macroeconomic performance, praised the country’s efforts in tackling the adverse conditions it faced in FY 2015. According to the Fund, the government’s timely and effective policy has alleviated the negative effect of a severe drought, which hit the country’s key agricultural production. It has also mitigated the negative spillovers from the weak global economic environment. In the political landscape, worsening protests led the government to declare a six-month state of emergency at the end of September. The widespread social unrest mainly stems from the political and economic marginalization of the country’s two major ethnic groups, the Oromos and Amharas, which together represent more than 60% of the population.
Ethiopia Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||511||547||626||676||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||43.3||47.4||55.6||61.5||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||8.7||9.9||10.3||10.2||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-1.2||-2.0||-2.6||-2.5||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||20.9||21.6||22.3||-||-|
|Money (annual variation in %)||32.3||32.3||22.3||29.1||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||34.4||15.0||7.7||7.1||10.0|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||33.2||22.8||8.1||7.4||10.1|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||17.29||18.27||19.05||20.33||21.26|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||16.98||17.78||18.72||19.72||20.76|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-1.8||-5.8||-6.1||-11.6||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-0.8||-2.8||-3.4||-7.1||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-5.3||-8.5||-9.1||-12.0||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||3.0||3.2||3.0||3.4||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||8.3||11.8||12.1||15.4||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||22.1||6.3||-7.6||13.1||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||13.1||41.2||2.6||27.2||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||2.3||2.4||2.5||3.2||-|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||19.9||22.1||22.6||27.0||-|
5 years of Ethiopia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||22.37||-0.09 %||Oct 24|
Ethiopia Economic Growth
October 18, 2016Dry weather will continue to undermine the agricultural sector, which represents an important part of the GDP. Nevertheless, the industrial sector will benefit from continued investment to improve power supply and will represent a key factor for economic growth. Analysts forecast that GDP will expand 6.1% in FY 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. They see the economy growing 7.4% in FY 2017.