Cambodia Economic Forecast

Cambodia Economic Outlook

January 25, 2022

Activity was likely subdued in H2 last year, with tourist arrivals remaining hugely below pre-pandemic levels. Nonetheless, arrivals did pick up towards the end of the period, while a high vaccination rate and looser restrictions compared to H1 should have aided domestic demand. Heading into Q1 this year, given the country’s dependence on tourism, momentum is likely being dulled by the arrival of the Omicron variant. More positively, the Central Bank recently extended its debt restructuring program until mid-2022, which should support investment ahead. Meanwhile, the EU recently revoked tariffs on Cambodian rice, boosting the external sector. In politics, the prime minister secured his party’s support for naming his son as his successor ahead of next year’s election. This should imply policy stability ahead.

Cambodia Economic Growth

Activity should strengthen this year. Looser restrictions should stimulate spending and inbound tourism, although Omicron could cap momentum initially. Increased public spending should offer further support. Meanwhile, new trade deals and reforms to attract FDI should boost the external sector and investment. New virus variants and tense relations with the U.S. pose risks. The panel sees the economy expanding 5.6% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 6.3% in 2023.

Cambodia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)15.515.816.016.316.5
GDP per capita (USD)1,1601,2781,3851,5101,631
GDP (USD bn)18.020.222.224.526.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.07.07.07.57.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.6-0.3-0.80.7-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)31.229.130.028.6-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.23.02.92.51.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.421.441.53-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4,0203,9904,0253,9924,055
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4,0384,0364,0304,0234,029
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.9-8.6-8.2-12.3-15.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.6-1.7-1.8-3.0-4.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.0-3.9-4.3-5.9-7.3
Exports (USD billion)9.410.311.313.015.1
Imports (USD billion)13.414.215.618.922.4
Exports (annual variation in %)14.19.99.315.615.9
Imports (annual variation in %)10.46.19.821.418.5
International Reserves (USD)6.98.411.313.417.0
External Debt (% of GDP)51.449.050.754.4-  

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Cambodia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate4,0280.05 %Jan 01

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