Bolivia Economic Forecast

Bolivia Economic Outlook

June 14, 2022

Last year, GDP grew at the fastest rate since the peak of the commodities boom nearly a decade ago. This year, GDP growth is being depressed by a high base effect. That said, underlying activity has likely remained strong. Government coffers will have been supported by rising prices for oil and gas and base metals. Exports were up 33.3% year on year in January–April, boosting international reserves—which rose to USD 2 billion in April from the 16-year low reached in February. This will let the country support its currency peg and therefore avoid a potential balance of payments crisis, which could have resulted in capital controls or a sudden exchange rate adjustment and capital outflows. Meanwhile, because of state subsidies, the currency peg and export controls, inflation remains at by far the lowest rate in Latin America, supporting private consumption.

Bolivia Economic Growth

Growth will fall this year on a tougher base effect. That said, higher commodity prices will boost the external and fiscal balances, supporting activity. Reignited political tensions are a key risk: Jeanne Áñez, who was president until 2020, was sentenced to 10 years in prison on 10 June for her role in an alleged coup d’état against former president Evo Morales. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 3.6% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% in 2023.

Bolivia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.911.011.211.411.6
GDP per capita (USD)3,0373,0843,3453,5403,541
GDP (USD bn)33.134.137.540.340.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.94.34.24.22.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.83.1-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.03.411.83.2-3.5
Unemployment Rate4.64.44.54.34.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-6.7-7.8-8.1-7.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.946.551.353.958.0
Money (annual variation in %)16.3-3.98.25.4-7.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.04.02.71.51.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.13.62.82.31.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.077.958.118.048.40
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.906.936.916.916.91
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.906.916.916.916.91
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.8-5.6-4.9-4.5-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.9-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.4-0.9-0.5-0.5-0.2
Exports (USD billion)8.77.08.18.98.8
Imports (USD billion)9.17.98.79.49.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-32.2-19.015.79.4-0.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.3-12.69.57.8-3.2
International Reserves (USD)11.68.58.57.24.4
External Debt (% of GDP)29.932.334.633.0-  

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Bolivia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate6.91-0.14 %Jan 01

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