Bolivia Economic Forecast

Bolivia Economic Outlook

October 11, 2021

While detailed national accounts data is still unavailable, economic conditions likely improved in the first half of the year. Monthly activity data shows the economy returned to growth at the end of Q1, before surging on a favorable base effect through Q2. Turning to Q3, activity growth slowed from Q2’s average level in July, but remained in double digits. Moreover, private sector credit growth remained robust in the same month, while remittances from abroad grew rapidly in July–August, indicating solid private consumption in the quarter. Meanwhile, on 30 September Moody’s affirmed the country’s ‘B2’ rating, but downgraded the outlook to negative from stable, citing risks brought about by recurring fiscal deficits, declining reserve buffers and projected large government financing needs in coming years.

Bolivia Economic Growth

This year, GDP is projected to grow at the strongest rate in six years, bouncing back from 2020’s downturn due to the pandemic. In 2022, growth is set to slow as consumer and capital spending moderate and the low base effect subsides, while the ongoing pandemic and a relatively slow vaccination campaign cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 5.2% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Bolivia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.911.011.211.411.6
GDP per capita (USD)3,0373,0843,3453,5403,541
GDP (USD bn)33.134.137.540.340.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.94.34.24.22.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.83.1-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.03.411.83.2-3.5
Unemployment Rate4.64.44.54.34.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-6.7-7.8-8.1-7.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.946.551.353.958.0
Money (annual variation in %)16.3-3.98.25.4-7.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.04.02.71.51.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.13.62.82.31.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.077.958.118.048.40
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.906.936.916.916.91
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.906.916.916.916.91
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.8-5.6-4.9-4.5-3.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.9-1.9-1.8-1.8-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.4-0.9-0.5-0.5-0.2
Exports (USD billion)8.77.08.18.98.8
Imports (USD billion)9.17.98.79.49.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-32.2-19.015.79.4-0.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.3-12.69.57.8-3.2
International Reserves (USD)11.68.58.57.24.4
External Debt (% of GDP)29.932.334.633.0-  

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Bolivia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate6.91-0.14 %Jan 01

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