A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
The European Union is facing an unprecedented amount of uncertainty. Brexit, a migrant crisis, elevated security concerns, a slowdown in China and unpredictable elections in the United States are all threatening the Union’s economic and political outlook. On top of this, members within the Union are facing a jam-packed election cycle. In a context of waning support for the status quo, this could lead to shifts in the balance of power. Senior Economist Angela Bouzanis takes a look at the upcoming votes we are keeping an eye on and why.
2 October 2016
Snapshot: Hungarians will vote on whether to accept the EU plan of distributing migrants across the continent, i.e. refugee quotas. A 50% turnout is needed to make the referendum legitimate.
The Bottom Line: Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been one of the fiercest critics of the EU’s management of the migrant crisis and is hoping to increase his appeal to voters at home before elections in 2018. A “no” vote along with a significant turnout would be a boost for Orbán’s government.
If the referendum is a success for Orbán, the government could also push to unwind the powers that the EU has and repatriate some to national states. In addition, the referendum could increase tension in Hungary’s relationship with the EU. EU authorities have threatened to halt development funds to countries which oppose migrant redistribution. If enacted, this could hit Hungary’s economy, although it seems unlikely that the EU would level any meaningful sanctions at this juncture.
Lithuania Parliamentary Election
9 October 2016
Snapshot: All seats in the country’s parliament are up for grabs and a second round of voting is scheduled for 23 October in any constituencies where no candidate wins a majority in the first round.
The Bottom Line: A number of corruption scandals across both the governing and opposition parties have increased political uncertainty in Lithuania. Early polls suggest that the Social Democratic Party, the largest party in the current ruling coalition, is the frontrunner but that its support has waned. Support for the junior coalition parties has also fallen. Despite the less certain makeup of the government, we do not expect a major change to economic or fiscal policy.
Italy Constitutional Referendum
4 December 2016
Snapshot: After failing to secure the required two-thirds support in parliament to push through a constitutional amendment curbing the power of the Senate, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi had to put the amendment to a referendum. The proposal will reshape the Senate so it no longer has equal power with the Chamber of Deputies and cannot call no-confidence votes. The aim is to make Italy a more governable and politically stable country.
The Bottom Line: Renzi has stated that he will resign if the reform fails, turning the referendum into a default vote on his leadership. If Renzi does resign, a period of political paralysis could emerge and there are some risks that the Five Star Movement could gain support. If the referendum passes, it will be a boost to Renzi and should lead to a more streamlined government.
Austria Presidential Election
Snapshot: A rerun of the presidential elections had to be postponed until December due to defective mail-in ballot envelopes.
The Bottom Line: The presidential post is largely ceremonial in Austria, but the vote could see the election of the first far-right head of state in Western Europe in decades. The vote highlights the growing Euroscepticism across the Eurozone.
Romania Parliamentary Election
Snapshot: Romanians will vote to replace their technocrat government that has been in place since last November, after a series of protests brought down the previous administration.
The Bottom Line: A corruption crackdown has amped up the already high political uncertainty and the election looks like it will be a close call. Early polls suggest that the leftist Social Democratic party could take first place but it remains to be seen how the recent resignation of the leader of the National Liberal party, the second largest party, will affect the race.
Spain Parliamentary Election
Snapshot: Two general elections have resulted in the most fragmented parliaments in the country’s recent history and a third election in one year looms if a coalition government cannot be formed.
The Bottom Line: The country has been without a government since December last year, stalling economic reforms and shaking confidence. While economic data has so far remained unscathed, the lack of government is delaying the submission of a 2017 budget draft to EU authorities. If a budget is not submitted by the 15 October deadline, EU authorities could levy sanctions against the country.
Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist
Date: September 29, 2016
TagsMexico World Bank Turkey Japan Argentina Infographic OPEC Sub-Saharan Africa Banking Sector Spain China Energy Commodities Trade Company News IMF Venezuela Nordic Economies Portugal Oil Greece Africa Unemployment rate Commodities Vietnam Economic Growth (GDP) Industrial Metals Commodities Colombia Housing Market precious metals Panelists Germany India G7 Investment France Exchange Rate Consensus Forecast European Union Inflation Tunisia Emerging Markets Ukraine Asia Euro Area South Africa USA oil prices Brexit Fed Iran Eastern Europe Canada UK Precious Metals Commodities United States Major Economies Base Metals Commodities Australia Gold Forex MENA Brazil Italy Agricultural Commodities Latin America Russia Financial Sector
3 minutes ago
17 minutes ago
17 minutes ago
39 minutes ago
18 hours ago
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- 2017 & 2018 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit