FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
August 17, 2017
What a renegotiation of NAFTA could mean for Mexico, and for the economies of Latin America as a whole, has been at top of mind for markets and the region since 18 May when U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer sent formal notice to Congress of the administration’s intention of renegotiating the agreement.
*Guest blog post from Latinoamerica21.
President Trump has repeatedly stated that the main objective of his trade policy is to reduce trade deficits with several of the U.S.’ trading partners and to review 20 of its agreements that contain "possible abuses and violations." The executive order explicitly states that all trade relations and preferential trade programs must contribute favorably to the United States’ trade balance and strengthen its manufacturing industry. Yet many of the agreements are failing in this regard.
Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
August 10, 2017
This year’s economic outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean is optimistic. However, in 2015 and 2016, the region experienced a deep economic recession, which was felt across all of the countries in the region, although it affected Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela in particular. Against this backdrop, how was it possible for the region to sustain the social advances it had achieved in the decades before the recession?
July 19, 2017
Uranium, the silvery radioactive metal, is a very important element because of its use in generating electricity in nuclear power stations. As the world moves on from the Fukushima disaster, nuclear power may be making a comeback and consequently, so may uranium prices. Nonetheless, the price is currently down around 25% from the same time last year having plummetted over 40% in 2016 according to a report by Frik Els of Mining.com. A uranium supply glut and falling demand along with negative sentiment based on a series of events in early 2017 has kept the price low, but analysts are becoming bullish on the medium and longer-term outlooks for uranium despite the metal still technically in a bear market.
July 18, 2017
The study of macroeconomics is an interesting one, as it explores the behaviour of the aggregate economy and the complex relationships that exist between factors such as inflation, interest rates and the underlying value of currency.
The impact of taxation within the economy makes for an equally interesting study particularly over the course of modern history. This seems even more relevant in the modern age, with Donald Trump's proposed tax plans expected to slash corporate taxes and trigger a boom in the business world.
More specifically, Trump's proposed corporate tax reforms would lower the maximum rate for small and medium-sized businesses from 38% to 15%. The new President has also proposed a one-time repatriation on any income that corporations earn overseas, with a potential rate of 10% enabling U.S.-based businesses to reinvest money back into the American economy.
July 11, 2017
Over the last year and change, the economic outlook for the Eurozone has improved dramatically while in that same time the UK economic outlook has left much to be desired.
A little over a year ago, Brexit campaigners proclaimed that if the UK did not leave the European Union it would be "shackled to a corpse." A year on from the Brexit-vote and that looks far from the truth as the health of the Eurozone economy looks better than it has in some time. Read our latest economic outlooks for the UK and the Eurozone below.
How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
July 6, 2017
Latin America will soon enter into an electoral cycle that will last about a year and a half and, depending on the results, some countries could face difficulties in terms of their credit ratings. This is because of one important factor: The ongoing fiscal consolidation continues to be a challenge for many governments that are facing a context of low economic growth and lower tax revenues, especially those related to low commodity prices, which makes it even more difficult to curb the current debt dynamics in the region.
*Guest blog post from Latinoamerica21.
Presidential elections are scheduled in seven countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Paraguay and Venezuela. All of the countries, with the exception of Venezuela, will see their current presidents’ terms ending and new leaders taking on the role. In addition, congressional elections will be held in Argentina— which could test Mauricio Macri’s reform agenda—and in El Salvador, where months of political paralysis has led to a significant decline in sources of funding for the government in addition to a debt default.
Click on the image to open a larger version
The elections will be of particular importance for the future of credit ratings for countries that have a negative outlook: Brazil, Chile and Mexico.
July 6, 2017
On 4 July, a Goldman Sachs executive appeared on CNBC to discuss investing in emerging markets. According to her, emerging markets may be a better investment than the U.S. despite growing concerns over higher debt levels and a stronger USD, U.S. market's may actually offer more uncertainty than emerging markets.
"Look at what's going on in the U.S. If you think about the moves in the U.S. both in the fixed income and equity markets there's a lot hinging on policy options which may or may not occur. Does tax reform going to happen? What happens to health care? What happens to infrastructure?"
With that said, we brought back our emerging markets economic outlook. Read our latest summaries for the emerging markets below.
July 5, 2017
Chile's economy has slowed in recent quarters, as the once booming mining sector has performed poorly and fixed investment has fallen sharply, taking business and consumer confidence with it. These issues continue to plague the economy as we move into Q3, with that in mind FocusEconomics Economist Oliver Reynolds interviewed Senior Economist for the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago, Maria del Pilar Cruz, about the potential future of the all-important mining sector as well as future economic growth prospects, President Bachelet's reforms, and inequality in Chile.
July 4, 2017
Where do CEOs see the most important prospects for business growth in the next 12 months? The U.S., China and Germany top the list, according to PwC Global’s 20th annual CEO Survey of nearly 1,400 CEOs from around the world. The UK, Japan, Brazil, India, Mexico, France and Australia round out the list of the top 10.
Click on the image to see a larger version
We took closer look at what economic analysts see on the horizon for these economies in the next 12 months:
June 28, 2017
Guest blog post from Latinoamerica21*
Mobile technologies and services generated 5% of Latin America's GDP in 2015 and nearly 2 million jobs, direct and indirect. In addition, the mobile ecosystem has contributed USD 40 billion to the public coffers for tax purposes, according to the report, The Mobile Economy Latin America and the Caribbean 2016, from the GSMA which represents the interests of mobile operators around the world.
Click the image above to open a full-size version
TagsIndustrial Metals Commodities precious metals Venezuela UK Forex Asia Fed Exchange Rate Investment Turkey World Bank Canada Trade USA MENA South Africa Housing Market Italy Financial Sector Precious Metals Commodities Latin America Argentina Brexit Euro Area Germany Colombia Commodities Tunisia Base Metals Commodities Agricultural Commodities IMF G7 Russia Mexico Gold United States Sub-Saharan Africa Australia Eastern Europe Nordic Economies Ukraine Economic Growth (GDP) Banking Sector France European Union Company News Spain China NAFTA Unemployment rate Emerging Markets OPEC Africa India Major Economies Infographic Consensus Forecast Vietnam Greece Portugal Iran oil prices Inflation Brazil Oil Panelists Japan Energy Commodities
2 minutes ago
33 minutes ago
1 hour ago
3 hours ago
3 hours ago
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
- Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- 2017 & 2018 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit
- Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog
- Marginal Revolution
- Morss Global Finance
- Observatorio Asia
- Observing Greece
- Of Markets & Men
- Punto de Vista Económico
- The Capital Spectator
- Trading Floor: Social trading, news and analysis
- True Economics
- Emre Deliveli's Blog on the Turkish Economy
- MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Wolf Street
- Geopolitica italiana
- bAg (Blog de economía de la ALdEa Global)
- Stock Trader´s Almanac
- Real-World Economics Review Blog
- The Winkle Institute for Worldwide Economic Stability
- Dash of Insight
- Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
- Chaco Realidades
- Comentario Financiero