Guatemala Economic Outlook
February 13, 2018After recovering somewhat in the third quarter from Q2’s seven-year low, economic growth appears to have been more sure-footed in Q4 2017 and is likely to have accelerated slightly. Preliminary estimates released by the Central Bank ahead of Q4 GDP figures put full-year growth for 2017 at 2.8%, suggesting a pick-up in activity at the end of the year. Economic growth in Q4 likely benefited from healthy remittance inflows. The stronger economic momentum appears to have carried into this year, with growth in remittances speeding up and private sector confidence improving to a six-month high, according to a survey by the Central Bank. President Jimmy Morales announced a Cabinet reshuffle on January 16, replacing the ministers for the economy, the environment and social development. The decision is not expected to have a significant economic impact.
Guatemala Economic GrowthDue to a booming U.S. economy, remittances should keep supporting household spending throughout 2018, boosting GDP growth. Government spending is also expected to increase, with a large investment plan in infrastructure and education announced, despite no approved budget. However, ongoing corruption scandals involving President Morales weigh on the outlook, while further downside risks stem from the possibility of changes in U.S. trade and immigration policies. FocusEconomics panelists forecast that GDP will grow 3.3% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% in 2019.
Guatemala Economy Data
5 years of Guatemala economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||7.37||0.22 %||Feb 22|
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Guatemala Economic News
February 7, 2018
Remittances from workers abroad grew 8.0% in January from the same month a year earlier, reaching USD 635 million and accelerating from December’s 6.2% year-on-year expansion.
February 7, 2018
Consumer prices fell 0.40% from a month earlier in January, contrasting December’s 0.95% month-on-month increase.
January 12, 2018
Economic activity rose 0.17% on a monthly basis in November, according to Banguat’s monthly index of economic activity (IMAE, Índice Mensual de la Actividad Económica).
January 11, 2018
Guatemala’s economy registered a pick-up in Q3 following a particularly weak first half of 2017.
January 10, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.95% from a month earlier in December, ticking up from November’s 0.86% increase.