Guatemala Economic Outlook
November 10, 2020The economy likely remained in the doldrums in Q3 amid the ongoing health crisis. Economic activity continued to contract in July–September, although the drop in September was the softest since the outbreak of the crisis in March. Moreover, merchandise imports dropped at a quicker rate in July compared to the prior month, suggesting that domestic demand remained frail. More positively, however, exports of goods returned to growth in the same month for the first time since February, while household consumption should have been supported by solid growth in remittance inflows in Q3, although the pace of expansion eased from the prior quarter. Turning to Q4, prospects are less than rosy due to a surge in new Covid-19 cases across the globe, which will likely dent exports and the tourism sector, while remittances could suffer from renewed restrictions abroad.
Guatemala Economic GrowthThe economy is forecast to recover next year from this year’s pandemic-induced recession. Both domestic and foreign demand are expected to gain traction, while the recovery in the U.S. should further support domestic demand through growing remittances. However, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside amid uncertainty over the evolution of the pandemic. FocusEconomics panelists estimate the economy to grow 3.8% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month, and to expand 3.2% in 2022.
Guatemala Economy Data
5 years of Guatemala economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||7.71||0.22 %||Jan 01|
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Guatemala Economic News
November 11, 2020
Consumer prices increased 1.06% in October over the previous month, accelerating from the 0.16% rise recorded in September.
November 9, 2020
Remittances totaled USD 1,133 million in October, representing a 13.3% year-on-year jump, which follows September’s 17.8% year-on-year surge.
November 6, 2020
Economic activity declined 0.3% in year-on-year terms in September, following August's 1.5% decrease.
October 12, 2020
The economy contracted a whopping 9.6% year-on-year in Q2 (Q1: +0.9% yoy).
October 9, 2020
Economic activity dropped 1.8% on a calendar-adjusted month-on-month basis in August (July: -4.8% yoy).