Guatemala Economic Forecast

Guatemala Economic Outlook

November 10, 2020

The economy likely remained in the doldrums in Q3 amid the ongoing health crisis. Economic activity continued to contract in July–September, although the drop in September was the softest since the outbreak of the crisis in March. Moreover, merchandise imports dropped at a quicker rate in July compared to the prior month, suggesting that domestic demand remained frail. More positively, however, exports of goods returned to growth in the same month for the first time since February, while household consumption should have been supported by solid growth in remittance inflows in Q3, although the pace of expansion eased from the prior quarter. Turning to Q4, prospects are less than rosy due to a surge in new Covid-19 cases across the globe, which will likely dent exports and the tourism sector, while remittances could suffer from renewed restrictions abroad.

Guatemala Economic Growth

The economy is forecast to recover next year from this year’s pandemic-induced recession. Both domestic and foreign demand are expected to gain traction, while the recovery in the U.S. should further support domestic demand through growing remittances. However, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside amid uncertainty over the evolution of the pandemic. FocusEconomics panelists estimate the economy to grow 3.8% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month, and to expand 3.2% in 2022.

Guatemala Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)16.316.616.917.317.6
GDP per capita (USD)3,8253,9824,2304,2334,353
GDP (USD bn)62.266.071.673.176.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.12.73.03.23.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.73.23.13.84.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.5-1.74.04.67.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.91.50.81.63.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.5-1.1-1.4-1.9-2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.925.225.226.226.9
Money (annual variation in %)9.56.68.49.49.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.14.25.72.33.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.44.54.43.83.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.003.002.752.752.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.637.527.357.737.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.667.607.357.527.70
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.21.01.10.82.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.80.60.80.61.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.0-6.6-7.4-8.7-8.7
Exports (USD billion)10.710.411.011.011.2
Imports (USD billion)17.617.018.419.719.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.2-2.15.1-0.11.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.5-3.68.27.01.1
International Reserves (USD)7.89.211.812.814.8
External Debt (% of GDP)32.832.532.130.6-  

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Guatemala Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate7.710.22 %Jan 01

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