Guatemala Economic Forecast

Guatemala Economic Outlook

October 11, 2021

The economy grew at the fastest rate since at least 2005 in the second quarter, as firming growth in remittances led to a notable expansion in private consumption. Fixed investment also jumped, while the external sector weighed on the overall reading as imports expanded at a quicker pace than exports. Turning to Q3, growth is expected to have lost steam amid a less favorable base effect. In August, the monthly economic activity indicator expanded at a six-month low rate, but still pointed to resilient growth. Meanwhile, growth in remittances remained elevated on average in Q3 as a whole, despite cooling from the prior quarter. In other news, the government tabled its draft 2022 budget on 3 September, projecting lower spending than this year. However, the government will likely face difficulties in passing its proposed budget, with spending adjustments likely.

Guatemala Economic Growth

The economy is forecast to expand at a softer pace in 2022 after rebounding strongly this year, although this will be due to a less favorable base effect, with domestic and foreign demand set to remain robust as restrictive measures are further relaxed. That said, a potentially prolonged health crisis due to a low vaccination rate and political tensions cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists estimate the economy to grow 4.6% in 2021 and to expand 3.6% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month.

Guatemala Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)16.316.616.917.317.6
GDP per capita (USD)3,8253,9824,2304,2334,353
GDP (USD bn)62.266.071.673.176.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.12.73.03.23.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.73.23.13.84.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.5-1.74.04.67.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.91.50.81.63.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.5-1.1-1.4-1.9-2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.925.225.226.226.9
Money (annual variation in %)9.56.68.49.49.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.14.25.72.33.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.44.54.43.83.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.003.002.752.752.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.637.527.357.737.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.667.607.357.527.70
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.21.01.10.82.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.80.60.80.61.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.0-6.6-7.4-8.7-8.7
Exports (USD billion)10.710.411.011.011.2
Imports (USD billion)17.617.018.419.719.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.2-2.15.1-0.11.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.5-3.68.27.01.1
International Reserves (USD)7.89.211.812.814.8
External Debt (% of GDP)32.832.532.130.6-  

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Guatemala Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate7.710.22 %Jan 01

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