Guatemala Economic Forecast

Guatemala Economic Outlook

June 14, 2022

High-frequency data points to a slight moderation in economic growth in the first quarter. Firstly, the Central Bank’s monthly activity index recorded a softer expansion, on average, in the three months ending in March. Additionally, price pressures have risen in the same time frame and this—coupled with easing remittance inflows—bodes poorly for household spending. Finally, cooling goods import growth further underlines reduced domestic demand. That said, a smaller merchandise trade deficit suggests that the external sector will have dragged less on the economy. Momentum continued to moderate at the outset of the second quarter, as evidenced by an eight-month soft expansion in economic activity in April. Furthermore, inflation rose to a 14-month high in May and remittances growth eased on average in April–May, likely impeding private consumption.

Guatemala Economic Growth

Economic growth is forecast to moderate this year on the back of a tougher base of comparison and the fallout from the war in Ukraine. Lingering pandemic-related uncertainty further clouds the outlook. However, domestic demand should be buoyed by softer Covid-19 restrictions and robust inflows of remittances. FocusEconomics panelists estimate the economy to grow 3.7% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and to expand 3.2% in 2023.

Guatemala Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)16.316.616.917.317.6
GDP per capita (USD)3,8253,9824,2304,2334,353
GDP (USD bn)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.5-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.5-1.1-1.4-1.9-2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.925.
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.637.527.357.737.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.667.607.357.527.70
Current Account (% of GDP)-
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.0-6.6-7.4-8.7-8.7
Exports (USD billion)10.710.411.011.011.2
Imports (USD billion)17.617.018.419.719.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.2-2.15.1-0.11.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.5-
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)32.832.532.130.6-  

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Guatemala Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate7.710.22 %Jan 01

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