Guatemala Economic Forecast

Guatemala Economic Outlook

November 5, 2019

Economic growth accelerated in the second quarter after softening in the first quarter and seems to have maintained momentum in the third. In Q2, the economy was buttressed by resilient, albeit moderating, domestic demand which remained robust thanks to stronger public expenditure and fixed investment and despite easing private consumption growth. The drag from the external sector, meanwhile, softened notably. Looking at the third quarter, the economy should have kept a resilient pace of growth. In the first two months, economic activity accelerated from the second quarter and export growth picked up pace in the same period compared to Q2, easily outpacing meek import growth. Moreover, in the quarter as a whole, remittance inflows strengthened and inflation moderated, boding well for household consumption.

Guatemala Economic Growth

Economic growth should remain broadly stable next year owing to robust private consumption and an improving external sector. However, tighter credit conditions will likely limit the expansion. Weaker U.S. economic growth weighing on remittances, and political fragmentation at home, complicating policy implementation, pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 3.1% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month, and 3.4% in 2021.

Guatemala Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)15.615.916.316.616.9
GDP per capita (USD)3,4633,6653,9384,1204,477
GDP (USD bn)54.058.464.068.375.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.74.24.13.12.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.94.15.13.53.4
Investment (annual variation in %)1.54.45.92.73.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.54.63.73.11.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.1-1.9-1.4-1.1-1.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.624.624.324.223.8
Money (annual variation in %)9.08.79.56.68.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.43.03.14.25.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.33.42.44.54.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.004.003.003.002.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.847.607.637.527.35
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.867.747.667.607.35
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.6-2.1-0.21.51.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.4-1.2-0.11.01.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.2-6.1-5.6-5.2-6.0
Exports (USD billion)10.211.010.810.611.1
Imports (USD billion)16.417.116.415.817.1
Exports (annual variation in %)1.07.8-1.8-2.04.9
Imports (annual variation in %)3.84.3-4.1-3.98.5
International Reserves (USD)7.37.37.89.211.8
External Debt (% of GDP)32.433.431.831.430.4

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Guatemala Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate7.690.22 %Sep 04

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