Guatemala Economic Outlook
September 15, 2020Covid-19 and associated restrictions will have wreaked havoc on the economy in the second quarter. The economic activity index nosedived at a double-digit rate in Q2 due to social distancing measures. Moreover, remittances were pummeled in the quarter and likely weighed on household spending. Imports, meanwhile, plummeted by nearly a fifth, further highlighting weakened domestic demand. Simultaneously, exports dropped sharply as foreign lockdown measures dragged on external demand, while the tourism sector should have also taken a hit. Turning to Q3, remittances grew strongly in July–August, which should have boosted private consumption. The gradual reopening of the economy since late July is likely supporting activity somewhat, although the prohibition of social events since late August will limit a potential recovery.
Guatemala Economic GrowthThis year, the economy is expected to shrink for the first time in over three decades as the pandemic weighs heavily on tourism, trade and domestic activity. Moreover, a recession in the U.S. will drag on remittances and thus affect private consumption. Political fragmentation and a prolonged viral outbreak cloud the outlook further. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists estimate the economy to contract 2.9% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month, and to expand 3.7% in 2021.
Guatemala Economy Data
5 years of Guatemala economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||7.71||0.22 %||Jan 01|
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Guatemala Economic News
September 10, 2020
Economic activity declined 4.8% compared to the same month a year earlier in July, which was a less pronounced drop than June's 7.2% decrease.
September 8, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.40% over the previous month in August, broadly unchanged from July's 0.42% increase.
September 3, 2020
Remittances totaled USD 1,050 million in August (July: USD 1,079 million), representing a 7.1% year-on-year increase.
August 26, 2020
At its 26 August meeting, the Central Bank of Guatemala opted to keep the policy rate unchanged at the all-time low of 1.75%, after cutting it by 25 basis points at its previous meeting in June.
August 10, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.42% in July over the last month, slowing down from June's 1.41% increase.