Guatemala Economic Forecast

Guatemala Economic Outlook

January 21, 2020

Economic growth hit an over one-year high in the third quarter, propelled by stronger domestic demand. Fixed investment outlays jumped and household consumption remained robust amid stronger remittances growth and easing inflationary pressures, although public consumption growth slowed. Meanwhile, the external sector was a bigger drag on the economy compared to the prior quarter on a surge in imports. Turning to the fourth quarter of last year, economic growth likely lost a step: The monthly economic activity index averaged lower in October–November, despite robust manufacturing activity, and remittances inflows grew at a softer pace through December. On the other hand, inflation moderated, which should have supported private consumption.

Guatemala Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow at a broadly stable pace this year. Private consumption is forecast to remain healthy, buttressed by resilient remittance inflows, while the external sector should improve. However, softer economic growth in the U.S. will likely weigh on the expansion, while political fragmentation at home complicating policy implementation clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 3.3% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month, and 3.4% in 2021.

Guatemala Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)15.916.316.616.917.3
GDP per capita (USD)3,6653,9384,1204,4774,560
GDP (USD bn)58.464.068.375.878.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.24.13.12.83.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.15.13.53.44.3
Investment (annual variation in %)4.45.92.73.13.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.63.73.11.82.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-1.4-1.1-1.3-1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.624.324.223.824.4
Money (annual variation in %)8.79.56.68.49.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.03.14.25.72.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.42.44.54.43.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.003.003.002.752.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.607.637.527.357.73
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.747.667.607.357.52
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.1-0.21.51.60.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.2-0.11.01.20.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.1-5.6-5.2-6.0-7.3
Exports (USD billion)11.010.810.611.111.1
Imports (USD billion)17.116.415.817.118.4
Exports (annual variation in %)7.8-1.8-2.04.9-0.2
Imports (annual variation in %)4.3-4.1-3.98.57.3
International Reserves (USD)7.37.89.211.812.8
External Debt (% of GDP)33.431.831.430.4-  

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Guatemala Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate7.710.22 %Jan 01

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