Guatemala Economic Outlook
November 10, 2020
The economy likely remained in the doldrums in Q3 amid the ongoing health crisis. Economic activity continued to contract in July–September, although the drop in September was the softest since the outbreak of the crisis in March. Moreover, merchandise imports dropped at a quicker rate in July compared to the prior month, suggesting that domestic demand remained frail. More positively, however, exports of goods returned to growth in the same month for the first time since February, while household consumption should have been supported by solid growth in remittance inflows in Q3, although the pace of expansion eased from the prior quarter. Turning to Q4, prospects are less than rosy due to a surge in new Covid-19 cases across the globe, which will likely dent exports and the tourism sector, while remittances could suffer from renewed restrictions abroad.Guatemala Economic Growth
The economy is forecast to recover next year from this year’s pandemic-induced recession. Both domestic and foreign demand are expected to gain traction, while the recovery in the U.S. should further support domestic demand through growing remittances. However, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside amid uncertainty over the evolution of the pandemic. FocusEconomics panelists estimate the economy to grow 3.8% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month, and to expand 3.2% in 2022.Guatemala Economy Data
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Guatemala Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 7.71 | 0.22 % | Jan 01 |
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Guatemala Economic News
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Guatemala: Growth in remittances eases but remains elevated in June
July 8, 2021
Remittances totaled USD 1,362.5 million in June, jumping 41.4% year-on-year (May: +47.8% yoy).
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Guatemala: Economic activity grows at record-high pace in May
July 8, 2021
Economic activity increased 15.7% year-on-year in May (April: +15.1% yoy).
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Guatemala: Inflation remains steady in May
July 8, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.19% from the previous month in June, picking up from the 0.16% increase logged in May.
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Guatemala: Economic growth reaches multi-year high in Q1
July 8, 2021
Economic growth firmed in the opening quarter of the year, with GDP expanding 4.8% year-on-year.
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Guatemala: Central Bank keeps rate unchanged in June
June 23, 2021
At its 23 June meeting, the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Guatemala opted to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged at the all-time low of 1.75%, marking the seventh consecutive hold. The decision was determined by the Bank’s assessment that indicators continue to show firming activity, with the latest data remaining in line with the forecasted 3.0%–5.0% GDP growth for 2021.
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