Guatemala Economic Forecast

Guatemala Economic Outlook

April 12, 2022

The economy began the year on a relatively solid footing, with economic activity inching higher in January from December, while the merchandise trade deficit narrowed in January versus December, suggesting a softer drag from the external sector. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine likely derailed some of the momentum, as consumer price inflation jumped to a 10-month high in March. This, coupled with softer growth in remittances in the first quarter as a whole, will likely have eaten into consumers’ pockets. In an attempt to limit the negative impact of greater energy prices on household incomes, President Giammattei extended the coverage of electricity subsidies in early March. In early April, in its concluding Article IV statement, the IMF noted a positive outlook despite elevated external risks, and called for continued reform efforts to further strengthen the economy.

Guatemala Economic Growth

Economic growth is set to moderate notably this year amid a tougher base of comparison. Softer restrictions on daily life and robust remittance inflows should support domestic demand. The balance of risks is skewed to the downside, however, as lingering pandemic-related uncertainty amid a low vaccination rate and the war in Ukraine cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists estimate the economy to grow 4.0% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to expand 3.3% in 2023.

Guatemala Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)16.316.616.917.317.6
GDP per capita (USD)3,8253,9824,2304,2334,353
GDP (USD bn)62.266.071.673.176.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.12.73.03.23.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.73.23.13.84.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.5-1.74.04.67.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.91.50.81.63.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.5-1.1-1.4-1.9-2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.925.225.226.226.9
Money (annual variation in %)9.56.68.49.49.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.14.25.72.33.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.44.54.43.83.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.003.002.752.752.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.637.527.357.737.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.667.607.357.527.70
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.21.01.10.82.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.80.60.80.61.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.0-6.6-7.4-8.7-8.7
Exports (USD billion)10.710.411.011.011.2
Imports (USD billion)17.617.018.419.719.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.2-2.15.1-0.11.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.5-3.68.27.01.1
International Reserves (USD)7.89.211.812.814.8
External Debt (% of GDP)32.832.532.130.6-  

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Guatemala Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate7.710.22 %Jan 01

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