Guatemala Economic Outlook
March 12, 2019Available data for Q1 is fairly positive. The private sector seemingly got off to a good start in January with growth in the economic activity index picking up pace and private sector credit growing at the second-quickest pace in two-and-a-half years. However, remittances growth has cooled, with average growth in January–February trending markedly below the reading observed in the fourth quarter of last year. In addition, the merchandise trade deficit widened in January on a drop in exports and robust imports. This follows a fourth quarter in which the economy is expected to have performed well on the back of the domestic side of the economy. Remittances growth was strong in the quarter and the economic activity index edged up. However, the trade deficit widened in the quarter. Moreover, the economy accelerated over last year as a whole according to a preliminary estimate.
Guatemala Economic GrowthDomestic demand is expected to continue driving economic growth, powered by a pick-up in fixed investment and public expenditure ahead of the June presidential election. However, uncertainty over U.S. immigration laws remains a key downside risk to remittances, while rising domestic political risk prior to the election could dent consumer and investor confidence. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Guatemalan economy to expand 3.1% in 2019 which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.
Guatemala Economy Data
5 years of Guatemala economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||7.69||0.22 %||Mar 11|
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Guatemala Economic News
March 11, 2019
Although data for the fourth quarter has yet to be released, preliminary estimates from the Central Bank showed that economic growth accelerated to 3.0% in 2018 from 2.8% in the prior year. The pick-up in pace was chiefly buttressed by firmer domestic demand.
March 8, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.14% month-on-month in February, a markedly softer rise in prices than January’s 1.35%.
March 7, 2019
Growth in economic activity accelerated from a downwardly revised 2.8% expansion in December (previously reported: +3.4% year-on-year) to a 3.4% increase in January.
March 7, 2019
Remittances from workers abroad rose 9.6% year-on-year in February, up from January’s 8.4% increase.
February 13, 2019
Growth in economic activity decelerated from a revised 3.8% expansion in November to 3.3% in December, according to Banguat’s monthly index of economic activity.