Guatemala Economic Outlook
July 10, 2018Economic growth slowed to a multi-year low in the first quarter on the back of softening domestic demand. Despite a rise in income levels and robust remittances growth, private consumption lost steam in the quarter, while public expenditure growth nearly halved. Meanwhile, fixed investment growth remained virtually unchanged from the prior quarter. The external sector fared poorly, with both exports and imports contracting markedly in the quarter. Looking at Q2, the economy should have accelerated somewhat as remittances growth was particularly strong in the first two months of the quarter: In April, remittances increased by more than a fifth over a year ago, while they reached the highest USD value on record in May, boding well for private consumption. Moreover, the Central Bank’s monthly economic activity index showed that the average reading trends higher in Q2 than the quarter prior.
Guatemala Economic GrowthDomestic demand is expected to propel the economy this year. Robust labor market developments and strong remittances growth should support private consumption, and infrastructure spending will likely spur government expenditure. However, downside risks stem from potential political and economic uncertainty leading up to next year’s presidential elections. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Guatemalan economy to expand 3.2% this year, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.3% in 2019.
Guatemala Economy Data
5 years of Guatemala economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||7.49||0.22 %||Jul 11|
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Guatemala Economic News
July 10, 2018
Consumer prices in Guatemala increased 0.57% in June over the prior month, accelerating from May’s 0.47% increase.
Guatemala: Economic growth slows to multi-year low in the first quarter of 2018 on a broad-based slowdown
July 9, 2018
In the first quarter of the year, the economy grew at the slowest pace since the third quarter of 2010, according to recently released national accounts data.
July 6, 2018
Data from Banguat’s monthly index of economic activity (IMAE, Indice Mensual de la Actividad Económica) showed that economic activity growth sped up in May from the prior month’s revised 0.1% increase (previously reported: -0.7% month-on-month) to 0.4%. On a year-on-year trend-cycle basis, growth in economic activity edged up from the prior month’s revised 2.7% (previously reported: +2.8% year-on-year) to 2.8% in May.
June 8, 2018
Data from Banguat’s monthly index of economic activity (IMAE, Indice Mensual de la Actividad Económica) showed that in April economic activity contracted 0.7% from the prior month, a sharper downturn than March’s 0.1% drop. On a year-on-year basis, however, growth in economic activity edged up from the prior month’s revised 2.6% (previously reported: +3.0% year-on-year) to 2.8% in April.
June 8, 2018
Consumer prices in Guatemala increased 0.47% in May over the prior month, accelerating from April’s fractional price increase of 0.04%.