Guatemala Economic Outlook
December 7, 2017Sluggishness in the economy remains apparent; after posting the weakest quarter of GDP growth in nearly seven years in Q2, prospects for a strong turnaround in the second half of the year appear increasingly uncertain. That said, recent data shows economic activity ticked up slightly in September from August on higher turnover in the manufacturing and service sectors. Remittances from abroad have also been on a tear in the past few months on the strength of the U.S. economy, most recently notching impressive growth in October. Moreover, the depreciation of the quetzal since September’s political crisis should lift exports through the remainder of the year, while a recent industry report points to strong coffee exports this year thanks to robust harvests. President Jimmy Morales continues to ignore calls for his resignation in the wake of corruption allegations. In November, Morales urged Congress to approve next year’s budget, which is set to include increased public investment and add to the public debt.
Guatemala Economic GrowthDespite a weak first half of the year, GDP growth is expected to be more solid in the second half of the year. In the medium term, robust remittance inflows are expected to sustain solid growth in household spending and grow the low tax base. That said, ongoing political scandals have upset business confidence and will cap the private sector’s willingness to invest. Our panelists forecast that GDP will grow 3.3% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast, and 3.5% in 2019.
Guatemala Economy Data
5 years of Guatemala economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||7.34||0.22 %||Dec 06|
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Guatemala Economic News
November 7, 2017
In October, consumer prices rose 0.54% from a month earlier, contrasting September’s 0.55% decline.
November 7, 2017
In September, economic activity rose 1.25% on a monthly basis, according to Banguat’s monthly index of economic activity (IMAE, Índice Mensual de la Actividad Económica).
November 3, 2017
Remittances from workers abroad grew 20.2% in October from the same month a year earlier, reaching USD 728.3 million and marking a notable acceleration from September’s 10.7% expansion.
October 9, 2017
Consumer prices fell 0.55% in September from a month earlier, intensifying from August’s 0.30% decline.
October 6, 2017
The economy decelerated in Q2 on the heels of a mild Q1.