Guatemala Economic Outlook
September 10, 2019
The economy likely gathered pace in the second quarter after growth slowed to a one-year low in the first quarter. The economic activity index average rate of growth for Q2 was modestly higher than that of Q1, supported by improvements in the private services; manufacturing; and wholesale and retail trade sectors. Moreover, remittance inflows rose robustly throughout Q2, boding well for household spending. Turning to the third quarter, available data paints a mixed picture. Economic activity moderated slightly in July, although private sector business confidence recovered in July and August. In politics, center-right candidate Alejandro Giammattei won the presidential election in a runoff on 11 August. Once in office in January 2020, the newcomer will face issues such as corruption, a more difficult relationship with the U.S., and migrant inflows. His policies will likely be a continuation of current President Morales’.Guatemala Economic Growth
Economic growth is forecast to slow slightly this year, largely due to weaker private consumption. While an expansionary fiscal stance, healthy fixed investment growth and a rebound in goods and services exports will support growth, a weakening U.S. economy could weigh on remittances in H2, which are an important source of income for Guatemalans. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Guatemalan economy to expand 3.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.Guatemala Economy Data
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Guatemala Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 7.69 | 0.22 % | Sep 04 |
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Guatemala Economic News
Guatemala: Economic activity moderates slightly in July
September 4, 2019
Economic activity slowed to 3.2% over the same month a year prior in July, down from the revised 3.3% grow logged in June (previously reported: +3.1% year-on-year).
Guatemala: Remittances inflows slow in August
September 3, 2019
Remittances from workers abroad rose 14.0% on an annual basis in August, decelerating from the 15.8% increase registered in July.
Guatemala: Inflation eases in July
August 19, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.06% over the prior month in July, contrasting the 0.83% increase in June.
Guatemala: Economic activity moderates in June
August 14, 2019
Economic activity slowed to 3.1% in annual terms in June, down from May’s revised 3.5% growth (previously reported: +3.3% year-on-year).
Guatemala: Economic activity quickens in May
July 31, 2019
Economic activity accelerated to 3.3% year-on-year in May from a revised 2.3% increase in April (previously reported: +2.8% year-on-year).
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