Guatemala Economic Outlook
June 14, 2022High-frequency data points to a slight moderation in economic growth in the first quarter. Firstly, the Central Bank’s monthly activity index recorded a softer expansion, on average, in the three months ending in March. Additionally, price pressures have risen in the same time frame and this—coupled with easing remittance inflows—bodes poorly for household spending. Finally, cooling goods import growth further underlines reduced domestic demand. That said, a smaller merchandise trade deficit suggests that the external sector will have dragged less on the economy. Momentum continued to moderate at the outset of the second quarter, as evidenced by an eight-month soft expansion in economic activity in April. Furthermore, inflation rose to a 14-month high in May and remittances growth eased on average in April–May, likely impeding private consumption.
Guatemala Economic GrowthEconomic growth is forecast to moderate this year on the back of a tougher base of comparison and the fallout from the war in Ukraine. Lingering pandemic-related uncertainty further clouds the outlook. However, domestic demand should be buoyed by softer Covid-19 restrictions and robust inflows of remittances. FocusEconomics panelists estimate the economy to grow 3.7% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and to expand 3.2% in 2023.
Guatemala Economy Data
5 years of Guatemala economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||7.71||0.22 %||Jan 01|
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Guatemala Economic News
February 6, 2023
Inflation rose to 9.7% in January, following December’s 9.2%.
January 18, 2023
At its meeting on 18 January, the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) raised the key policy rate once again—this time by 50 basis points to 4.25%.
January 16, 2023
Economic activity growth accelerated marginally to 3.8% year on year in November, from October’s 3.7%.
January 13, 2023
GDP growth waned to 3.8% year on year in the third quarter from 4.1% in Q2.
January 12, 2023
Inflation came in at 9.2% in December, unchanged from the previous month.