Guatemala Economic Outlook
March 17, 2020
The economy seemingly firmed at the start of the new year, after the monthly economic activity index and softer remittances growth indicated a cooling in the final quarter of last year. In January, growth in the monthly economic activity index rose from December’s six-month low on the back of robust growth in the retail, manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Moreover, in the first two months of the year, private consumption growth likely remained healthy as inflationary pressures eased notably, while growth in remittances was markedly stronger; in January, remittances grew at the strongest pace in 17 months. In other news, the government recently announced inbound travel restrictions due to the coronavirus pandemic, which is likely to hit tourism in the near term.Guatemala Economic Growth
This year, economic growth is expected to ease somewhat compared to last year’s four-year high, although healthy private consumption, underpinned by resilient remittances inflows, should buttress domestic demand. The balance of risks is tilted to the downside owing to softer growth in the U.S., domestic political fragmentation and the coronavirus. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists estimate the economy to expand 3.4% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month, and 3.5% in 2021.Guatemala Economy Data
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Guatemala Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 7.71 | 0.22 % | Jan 01 |
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Guatemala Economic News
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Guatemala: Banguat lowers interest rate for first time in over two years in March
March 19, 2020
At its 19 March emergency meeting, the Monetary Board of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) unanimously cut the key interest rate from 2.75% to 2.25%, marking the first rate cut in over two years. The decision to slash the interest rate chiefly reflected efforts to support activity in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, which is expected to weigh heavily on the global and domestic economy.
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Guatemala: Inflation eases in February
March 9, 2020
Consumer prices fell 0.40% month-on-month in February, down from the 0.24% drop in January.
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Guatemala: Growth in economic activity picks up in January
March 5, 2020
Growth in economic activity rose from December’s upwardly revised 3.4% (previously reported: +3.1% year-on-year) to 3.6% in January and signaled that the economy started the year on stronger footing.
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Guatemala: Growth in remittances eases in February
March 4, 2020
Remittances from workers abroad rose 17.0% year-on-year in February, moderating from January’s 21.3% increase, and totaled USD 808.0 million (February 2019: USD 690.5 million; January 2020: USD 834.6 million).
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Guatemala: Banguat stands pat in February
February 19, 2020
At its 19 February meeting, the Monetary Board of the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) kept the key interest rate unchanged at 2.75%, where it has now been for over two years. Well-anchored inflation expectations led the decision to stand pat, as the Bank sees inflation in the 3.0%–5.0% target range this year despite temporarily falling below the range in January.
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