Guatemala Economic Outlook
November 6, 2018
After accelerating in the second quarter thanks to strong domestic demand, the economy likely performed fairly well in Q3 due to the same drivers, with the average reading of the monthly economic activity index in July and August trending only slightly below the previous quarter’s reading. Moreover, private consumption should have been buttressed by strong remittances growth in the quarter, which reached their highest USD value on record in August, benefiting from continued robust momentum in the U.S. economy. In late October, S&P confirmed Guatemala’s credit rating as BB- with a stable outlook, due to a manageable fiscal shortfall, a low public debt ratio and an improving external position. However, the agency noted that political instability is hampering growth. Looking at Q4, floods and heavy rainfall in October could drag on economic activity somewhat.Guatemala Economic Growth
Momentum in the economy is expected to edge up next year on the back of strong domestic demand. Private consumption is likely to benefit from a tight labor market and robust remittances inflows, while growth in government consumption and fixed investment should also accelerate. However, political risks are likely to increase in the build-up to next year’s presidential elections. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Guatemalan economy to expand 3.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% in 2020.Guatemala Economy Data
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Guatemala Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 7.72 | 0.22 % | Nov 15 |
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Guatemala Economic News
Guatemala: Inflation moderates in October
November 7, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.34% in October over the previous month, down from September’s 0.60% increase.
Guatemala: Economic activity edges down in September but stays robust
November 7, 2018
Data from Banguat’s monthly index of economic activity (IMAE, Índice Mensual de la Actividad Económica) showed that economic activity increased 3.0% in September over the same month a year ago.
Guatemala: Growth in remittances bounces back markedly in October
November 7, 2018
Remittances from workers abroad increased markedly in October, growing 18.6% year-on-year (September: +10.9% year-on-year) and reaching a value of USD 863.5 million—an all-time high—,suggesting that Guatemalan workers in the United States continue to benefit from robust economic momentum.
Guatemala: Inflation rises in September
October 30, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.60% in September over the previous month, up from August’s 0.44% increase.
Guatemala: Growth in remittances moderates markedly in September but stays solid
October 8, 2018
Growth in remittances from workers abroad decelerated significantly from 21.6% year-on-year in August to a still-robust 10.9% in September.
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