Guatemala Economic Outlook
November 10, 2020The economy likely remained in the doldrums in Q3 amid the ongoing health crisis. Economic activity continued to contract in July–September, although the drop in September was the softest since the outbreak of the crisis in March. Moreover, merchandise imports dropped at a quicker rate in July compared to the prior month, suggesting that domestic demand remained frail. More positively, however, exports of goods returned to growth in the same month for the first time since February, while household consumption should have been supported by solid growth in remittance inflows in Q3, although the pace of expansion eased from the prior quarter. Turning to Q4, prospects are less than rosy due to a surge in new Covid-19 cases across the globe, which will likely dent exports and the tourism sector, while remittances could suffer from renewed restrictions abroad.
Guatemala Economic GrowthThe economy is forecast to recover next year from this year’s pandemic-induced recession. Both domestic and foreign demand are expected to gain traction, while the recovery in the U.S. should further support domestic demand through growing remittances. However, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside amid uncertainty over the evolution of the pandemic. FocusEconomics panelists estimate the economy to grow 3.8% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month, and to expand 3.2% in 2022.
Guatemala Economy Data
5 years of Guatemala economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Guatemala Economic News
February 22, 2021
The Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Guatemala stood pat at its 17 February meeting, leaving the monetary policy rate unchanged at the all-time low of 1.75% and marking the fourth consecutive hold. In deliberating the decision, the Bank noted that inflation is expected to land within the 3.0%–5.0% tolerance band this year.
February 12, 2021
Economic activity rose 5.3% in December (November: +2.5% yoy).
February 11, 2021
Remittances totaled USD 906.8 million in January, growing 8.6% year-on-year, down from December’s multi-year high of 23.7% jump.
February 9, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.15% from the previous month in January, swinging from December's 0.01% drop.
January 14, 2021
GDP declined at a markedly slower pace in the third quarter, decreasing 1.8% on an annual basis (Q2: -9.6% year-on-year). The upturn reflected a broad-based improvement in private consumption, public spending, fixed investment and exports.