Guatemala Economic Outlook
January 15, 2019
Economic growth picked up pace in the third quarter of 2018 on the back of resilient domestic demand and despite a weak external sector performance. Although easing slightly, growth in private consumption remained sturdy and benefited from strong growth in remittances. Meanwhile, public consumption and fixed investment growth shifted into a higher gear in the quarter, picking up some of the slack. On the other hand, exports contracted at a sharper pace while import growth accelerated. With that said, strong import growth is normally a sign of robust domestic demand. Looking at the final quarter of 2018, economic activity kept up pace in October and November, while growth in remittances remained strong through the quarter. Overall, a preliminary estimate from the Central Bank suggests annual growth accelerated slightly in 2018. In other news, after a year of tensions between the government and the UN, Guatemala pulled out of the UN’s anti-corruption commission and expelled its commissioners. This followed an investigation into government officials and top presidential aides.Guatemala Economic Growth
Firming domestic demand should support economic growth this year, with private consumption benefiting from a tight labor market and resilient remittances inflows. On the other hand, heightened political risk in the lead-up to this year’s elections poses a downside risk to economic activity, threatening consumer and investor confidence. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Guatemalan economy to expand 3.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.Guatemala Economy Data
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Guatemala Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 7.72 | 0.22 % | Jan 21 |
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Guatemala Economic News
Guatemala: Economy grows at quickest pace since Q2 2016 in the third quarter
January 10, 2019
The economy picked up some steam in the third quarter on resilient domestic demand, which offset a weaker external sector.
Guatemala: Economic activity accelerates in November
January 9, 2019
Growth in economic activity accelerated from 3.2% year-on-year in October to 3.4% in November, according to Banguat’s monthly index of economic activity.
Guatemala: Inflation moderates strongly in December
January 8, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.13% over the previous month in December, contrasting the 0.29% decrease in November.
Guatemala: Growth in remittances eases slightly in November
January 7, 2019
Remittances from workers abroad increased 17.1% over the same month a year earlier in November, slightly down from the 18.6% year-on-year expansion recorded in October.
Guatemala: Growth in economic activity speeds up in October
January 7, 2019
Economic activity accelerated in October to 3.3% year-on-year from 3.0% in September according to Banguat’s monthly index of economic activity.
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