Economic Snapshot for Central & Eastern Europe
January 14, 2020
Central & Eastern Europe growth is seen shifting into a lower gear this year
The regional economy is seen shifting into a lower gear this year, due to spillovers from a weak Eurozone amid lingering global trade tensions, and as capacity constraints bite harder. Investment activity is set to lose the most steam, while consumer spending should also ebb on softer employment growth and despite still-healthy wage gains
CEE Monetary & Financial Sector News
Regional inflation came in at 2.8% in November, increasing from October’s 2.6% reading. This year, inflation is expected to remain stable compared to 2019, with the impact of tightening supply-side constraints largely offset by softening domestic demand.
Central banks in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania held their ground at their latest meetings. The ECB’s ultraloose monetary policy stance, softening growth at home and protracted weakness in the Eurozone were behind the banks’ decisions. Rates should remain largely stable this year, provided inflation does not surprise on the upside.
Over the last month, the Czech and Polish currencies strengthened relative to the EUR, likely supported by the trade agreement reached between China and the U.S., while the Romanian leu remained stable and the Hungarian forint depreciated, weighed down by domestic factors. This year, on the whole CEE currencies are seen largely unchanged against the EUR.
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Central & Eastern Europe Economic News
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Poland: Retail sales close 2019 with a bang
January 23, 2020
Nominal retail sales jumped 7.5% year-on-year in December, above November’s 5.9% rise.
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Lithuania: Industrial output edges up in December
January 23, 2020
Industrial production rose 0.6% year-on-year in December, accelerating marginally from November’s 0.4% uptick.
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Poland: Growth in industrial output accelerates in December
January 22, 2020
Industrial output rose a 3.8% year-on-year in December, following the weaker 1.4% uptick recorded in November, according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
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Poland: Business sentiment rebounds strongly at the start of the new year
January 22, 2020
Manufacturing-sector business confidence bounced back in January, according to the business tendency indicator released by Statistics Poland.
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Croatia: Inflation closes 2019 at over one-year high
January 16, 2020
Consumer prices dipped 0.1% over the prior month in December, following November’s 0.2% drop.
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