Economic Snapshot for Central & Eastern Europe
September 4, 2019
Central & Eastern Europe growth to decelerate in 2019
While regional growth will decelerate this year on supply-side constraints and in tandem with the European slowdown, resilient domestic demand will buttress the overall economy. Co-financed investment projects and low interest rates will support investment activity, while tight labor markets and fast wage increases will spur consumer spending.
CEE Monetary & Financial Sector News
Regional inflation edged up to 3.0% in July (June: 2.8%), due to faster price increases for food and recreation. Inflation accelerated in most economies except for Hungary and Estonia. Healthy growth in domestic demand and rising wages will sustain inflation going forward, although intense international competition will cap overall price pressures.
The Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania stood pat at their August meetings, amid softening growth at home, intensifying global trade tensions and the ECB’s expected monetary policy loosening. Going forward, rates are seen broadly stable, owing to the ECB’s dovish stance and a challenging external backdrop. Upside inflation surprises could lead to some rate hikes.
Most CEE currencies lost ground against the euro in recent weeks, owing to softening regional growth; concerns linked to intensifying global protectionism and the increased possibility of a hard Brexit; and the recent collapse of the Romanian government. Nevertheless, solid domestic economies will sustain CEE currencies ahead.
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Central & Eastern Europe Economic News
Croatia: Inflation eases in August
September 16, 2019
Consumer prices declined 0.3% from the previous month in August, following a sharper 0.5% fall in July.
Bulgaria: Inflation stable in August
September 16, 2019
Consumer prices inched up 0.1% from the previous month in August, following July’s 0.8% jump.
Poland: Inflation stuck at near seven-year high in August
September 13, 2019
Consumer prices were unchanged over the previous month in August, matching July’s print, according to data released by the Poland’s Statistical Institute (GUS).
Romania: Industrial output falls for a second consecutive month in July
September 12, 2019
Industrial output fell 3.0% on an annual basis in July, an improvement from June’s 6.2% contraction but marking the second fall in a row.
Poland: Central Bank holds its ground in September as expected
September 11, 2019
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept the reference rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% at its 10–11 September monetary policy meeting, as had been widely expected.
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