Economic Snapshot for Central & Eastern Europe
January 12, 2021
Regional GDP is projected to return to growth in 2021 as activity recovers from the pandemic. Household and capital spending are set to rebound, partly supported by continued fiscal and monetary stimulus, while strengthening demand from the EU should bolster exports. Uncertainty regarding the evolution of the health crisis and the deployment of vaccines clouds the outlook.
CEE Monetary & Financial Sector News
Regional inflation fell to 2.1% in November from October’s 2.3%, reflecting easing price pressures due to weak aggregate demand. Looking ahead, inflation is seen decelerating from 2020 this year, although increasing food prices and continued loose fiscal and monetary policy stances could exert upside pressures.
In their final meetings of 2020, central banks in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland decided to keep their key rates on hold to further mitigate the adverse effects of the Covid-19 crisis. Going forward, policy stances are projected to remain broadly expansionary in 2021 as regional economies seek to sustain the recovery.
Most regional currencies were little changed against the euro in recent weeks amid the beginning of the coronavirus vaccine rollout. However, the Polish zloty weakened as the Central Bank hinted it may cut the key interest rate in the coming quarter. Looking ahead, regional currencies overall are seen recovering some ground as activity picks up.
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5 years of Central & Eastern Europe economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Central & Eastern Europe Economic News
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Hungary: Industrial production jumps on low-base effect in March
May 6, 2021
Industrial output soared 16.2% year-on-year in March (February: +3.9% yoy) benefiting from an extremely low-base effect as March 2020 was the first month of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a preliminary estimate.
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Czech Republic: Manufacturing PMI signals strongest improvement in operating conditions in over three years in April
May 3, 2021
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit, came in at 58.9 in April, up from March’s 58.0 and marking the highest reading since January 2018.
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Czech Republic: Pace of economic contraction softens in Q1
May 1, 2021
The economy shrank 2.1% on a seasonally-adjusted year-on-year basis in Q1 2021, amid another wave of Covid-19 infections which prompted the government to tighten restrictions.
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Lithuania: GDP rebounds in Q1, despite tighter lockdown measures
April 30, 2021
GDP rose 1.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021, according to preliminary data.
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Slovenia: Inflation picks up in April
April 30, 2021
Consumer prices increased 1.04% in April over the previous month, picking up from the 0.34% rise recorded in March.
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