Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Aggregate CEE GDP growth is set to decelerate from 2025 in 2026 amid weaker private spending growth. Still, stronger fixed investment should limit the slowdown. In 2027, GDP growth is projected to reach a five-year high as lower inflation boosts private consumption. Adverse weather is a downside risk, threatening agriculture, industrial activity and power supply.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
In August, regional inflation fell to 3.5% (July: 3.6%), marking a fourth consecutive decline. Despite higher energy costs amid the Iran war, CEE inflation is set to trend down this year and next. Weaker private spending growth will keep inflation near post-pandemic lows in 2026. Weather-related shocks are becoming an increasingly important upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2026.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 11.1 | 5.5 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 0.5 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.4 | 3.5 | 7.6 | -1.7 | 3.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.58 | 6.21 | 6.16 | 5.03 | 4.07 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 6.6 | 4.9 | -0.3 | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -5.2 | -5.4 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 4.2 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.7 | 52.9 | 56.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 |