Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Our panel expects GDP growth in CEE to outperform 2024’s level in 2025 on the back of interest rate cuts and stronger EU demand, which should support fixed investment, industrial production and exports. That said, private and public spending growth should wane in most CEE countries. Rising trade tensions are a downside risk, while EU funds absorption is key to watch.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
In May, regional inflation rose from April’s level, hovering around the past-decade average. The data at hand suggests that, in June, price pressures could have strengthened further. Our Consensus is for average inflation in CEE to exceed 2024’s level in 2025 as a whole due to stronger GDP growth and rate cuts. Commodity price spikes are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.3 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.5 | 6.4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 3.6 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -2.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 8.1 | -2.2 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -4.6 | 11.0 | 5.5 | -2.4 | -0.6 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.8 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -5.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 53.5 | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.7 | 53.1 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.6 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 0.26 | 1.65 | 6.38 | 6.24 | 5.12 |