Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for CEE’s GDP growth to outpace 2024’s level in 2025 as lower interest rates and stronger EU demand should support fixed investment, industrial production and exports. Still, private and public consumption growth will likely ease in most CEE countries. Weaker-than-anticipated EU demand is a downside risk, while EU funds absorption is key to watch.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
In July, regional inflation matched June’s level. Our Consensus is for CEE’s inflation to average above 2024’s level in 2025 as a whole due to stronger GDP growth and interest rate cuts, while still remaining below the 10-year average of 4.3%. Commodity price spikes are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.3 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 1.9 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -2.6 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 8.0 | -2.2 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.5 | 6.4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 3.6 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -4.6 | 11.0 | 5.5 | -2.4 | -0.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.8 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -5.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 53.5 | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.7 | 53.1 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.6 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 0.26 | 1.65 | 6.38 | 6.24 | 5.12 |