Economic Snapshot for Central & Eastern Europe
October 30, 2019
Central & Eastern Europe growth to decelerate in 2019
Regional growth is set to slow next year due to intensifying supply constraints and a challenging external environment. Moreover, a moderation in EU funding inflows and easing construction activity will weigh on fixed investment, while a possible reignition of global trade tensions further cloud the outlook.
CEE Monetary & Financial Sector News
Regional inflation came in at 2.6% in September, edging down from August’s 2.9 % reading. Inflation is seen remaining broadly stable in 2020, as solid wage growth and domestic capacity constraints will largely offset downside price pressures stemming from lower energy prices and softening domestic demand.
Central banks in Hungary, Poland and Romania stood pat at their October meetings. Despite strong core price pressures in Hungary, a weak external backdrop and the ECB’s ultraloose monetary policy stance led the banks’ decisions. Rates should remain broadly stable in 2020, although stronger-than-expected inflation could prompt interest rate hikes.
Most regional currencies gained ground against the euro in recent weeks. Waning expectations of a no-deal Brexit were the main factor behind the appreciation. Meanwhile, the fall of Romania’s government weighed on the leu. In 2020, CEE currencies are seen broadly stable against the euro, sustained by positive interest rate differentials.
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Central & Eastern Europe Economic News
Croatia: Inflation slips in October
November 15, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.4% from the previous month in October, following September’s 0.8% upturn.
Slovakia: Inflation inches down in October
November 15, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.1% month-on-month in October, contrasting September’s 0.1% rise.
Poland: Inflation eases further in October
November 14, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.2% over the previous month in October, following September’s flat print, according to data released by the Poland’s Statistical Institute (GUS).
Bulgaria: Growth moderates but remains resilient in Q3
November 14, 2019
The economy grew 3.7% year-on-year (yoy) in the third quarter, marginally down from the second quarter’s 3.8% outturn, according to a preliminary release by the Statistical Institute on 14 November.
Poland: Growth eases to near three-year low in Q3 but remains upbeat nonetheless
November 14, 2019
The economy grew 3.9% year-on-year (yoy) in the third quarter, marking the weakest expansion since Q4 2016, according to a preliminary estimate released by the Statistical Institute (GUS) on 14 November.
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