Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for CEE’s GDP growth to hit a three-year high in 2025 as lower interest rates and stronger EU demand fuel fixed investment, industrial output and exports. Still, private and public consumption growth will likely ease in most CEE countries. The strength of EU demand and the pace of EU funds absorption are key to watch.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
In August, regional inflation rose from July to the joint-highest level in nearly two years. Our Consensus is for CEE’s inflation to average above 2024’s rate in 2025 as a whole due to stronger GDP growth and lower interest rates. Still, price pressures should remain below the 10-year average as stronger currencies across the region temper rises in import prices.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2025 to 2020.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.4 | 6.4 | 4.3 | -0.4 | 3.8 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 53.5 | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.6 | 53.1 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.3 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -4.6 | 11.0 | 5.5 | -2.4 | -0.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -6.8 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 | -5.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 0.26 | 1.65 | 6.38 | 6.24 | 5.12 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.6 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 | 3.5 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -2.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 8.1 | -2.1 |