Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

January 14, 2020

Economic growth accelerated more than expected in the third quarter, as fixed investment grew at a seven-year high pace on the back of robust construction activity and an improving business climate. Public and private consumption also performed well in Q3. The economy likely extended its solid track record into the final quarter. Retail sales rose robustly in October–November, which, coupled with favorable credit conditions and rising wages, points to solid private consumption in the fourth quarter. Moreover, merchandise export growth gathered pace in the same period, while industrial production continued to recover in November after having contracted in H1. In other positive news, on 13 December, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Serbia’s credit rating to BB+ and affirmed its positive outlook, citing the country’s improving growth prospects due to solid export growth and rising FDI inflows.

Serbia Economic Growth

The economy is positioned to grow at a fairly even clip in 2020, supported by fiscal stimulus, sustained consumer spending and a rebound in industrial output. Moreover, record-high FDI inflows will likely continue in 2020. Export growth, however, should slow due to weaker EU demand. That said, stable fundamentals should help buffer the economy from external risks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.4% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.4% again in 2021.

Serbia Economy Data

20142015201620172018
Population (million)7.27.17.17.17.0
GDP per capita (USD)6,7546,5945,5875,7576,288
GDP per capita (EUR)5,0854,9755,0345,2035,580
GDP (USD bn)48.447.039.640.644.1
GDP (EUR bn)36.435.535.736.739.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.9-1.61.83.32.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)-1.6-0.1-0.51.32.0
Investment (annual variation in %)-12.0-3.44.95.47.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.6-7.37.35.23.9
Unemployment Rate22.119.217.715.313.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.1-6.2-3.5-1.21.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.364.269.567.659.3
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)13.912.114.415.17.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.92.11.41.13.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.508.004.504.003.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)83.34100.3111.9117.298.56
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)85.1388.47108.8111.3107.7
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)114.6121.1121.3123.4118.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)113.1117.3120.7123.1121.4
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.8-5.6-3.5-2.9-5.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.1-2.0-1.2-1.1-2.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.2-4.1-3.6-3.1-4.0
Exports (EUR billion)10.510.611.512.814.1
Imports (EUR billion)14.714.815.115.918.1
Exports (annual variation in %)25.51.27.611.99.8
Imports (annual variation in %)4.70.52.45.513.4
International Reserves (EUR)11.29.910.410.210.0
External Debt (% of GDP)73.066.171.968.869.6

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Serbia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.050.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate104.9-0.31 %Jan 01

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