Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

The economy had a mixed performance in 2017, with slow economic growth in the first half of the year followed by an acceleration in the second half. A flash estimate released by the Statistical Institute on 31 January put year-on-year economic growth at 2.5% in the fourth quarter, up from 2.1% in the third quarter and placing overall economic growth at 1.9% in 2017. Moreover, customs data suggested that exports grew healthily in December, although the trade deficit still increased as imports grew at a faster pace. Meanwhile, on the political front, local elections will take place in Belgrade on 4 March. Some politicians from the ruling Progressive Party had called for holding snap parliamentary elections alongside them. But, in a move that should steady the political landscape, President Aleksandar Vucic said on 8 January that his Progressive Party does not plan to call snap elections this year.

Serbia Economic Growth

Increased government spending, particularly on wages, pensions and infrastructure investment, should support domestic demand in 2018. Moreover, the continuation of accommodative monetary policy should support the economy this year. However, although public debt is now on a downward trend, it remains large enough to be of concern. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth to reach 3.1% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, panelists again project growth of 3.1%.

Serbia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)7.27.27.17.17.0
GDP per capita (USD)5,4566,1876,4775,2885,396
GDP per capita (EUR)4,2994,7604,7314,7464,857
GDP (USD bn)39.344.346.237.537.9
GDP (EUR bn)31.034.133.733.634.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.02.6-1.80.82.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.1-0.4-1.30.40.8
Investment (annual variation in %)13.2-12.0-3.65.64.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-3.45.6-6.18.44.8
Unemployment Rate23.922.119.217.715.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.8-5.5-6.6-3.7-1.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.656.867.971.970.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-1.513.912.114.415.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.37.92.11.41.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.259.508.004.504.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)85.1583.34100.3111.9117.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)88.0185.1388.47108.8111.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)112.3114.6121.1121.3123.4
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)113.1113.1117.3120.7123.1
Current Account (% of GDP)-12.0-6.3-5.7-4.7-4.0
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-3.7-2.1-1.9-1.6-1.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-5.7-4.2-4.0-4.0-3.5
Exports (EUR billion)8.510.710.311.312.7
Imports (EUR billion)14.215.014.315.316.2
Exports (annual variation in %)4.626.5-3.89.512.1
Imports (annual variation in %)3.85.5-4.46.85.5
International Reserves (EUR)10.911.29.910.410.2
External Debt (% of GDP)86.179.767.376.173.9

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Serbia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.250.0 %Feb 22
Exchange Rate95.73-0.31 %Feb 22
Stock Market1,593-0.44 %Feb 22

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