Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

The economy should have shrunk at a softer pace in the third quarter amid the reopening of economies. Industrial production swung from a notable contraction in the second quarter to a solid expansion in the third. Moreover, retail sales grew at a solid pace in July–September, contrasting Q2’s drop. On the external front, merchandise exports continued to contract in the first two months of Q3, although at a noticeably softer pace compared to Q2. Similarly, the drop in tourist arrivals in July–August was less severe than the fall seen in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, a new government was installed on 29 October, but President Aleksandar Vucic stated in mid-October that a snap election would be held by 3 April 2022 at the latest. The new government will work towards EU membership, while strengthening the health care system and the economy in the wake of Covid-19.

Serbia Economic Growth

Following the pandemic-induced downturn this year, the economy is forecast to recover strongly next year as both domestic and external demand strengthen amid the reopening of the global economy. However, the outlook is clouded by lingering uncertainty over the pandemic; further waves of the virus could prompt renewed restrictions, weighing on activity in turn. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 4.9% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month, and 4.1% in 2022.

Serbia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)7.17.17.07.07.0
GDP per capita (USD)5,5875,7576,2887,2327,380
GDP per capita (EUR)5,0345,2035,5806,1306,593
GDP (USD bn)39.640.644.150.651.4
GDP (EUR bn)35.736.739.242.945.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.83.32.04.44.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.51.32.03.03.2
Investment (annual variation in %)4.95.47.317.816.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)7.35.23.91.30.3
Unemployment Rate17.715.313.512.710.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-1.21.10.6-0.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)69.567.659.353.752.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)14.415.17.916.716.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.41.13.22.01.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.003.503.002.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)111.9117.298.56103.2104.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)108.8111.3107.7100.2105.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)121.3123.4118.3118.3117.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)120.7123.1121.4118.2117.8
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.5-2.9-5.2-4.8-6.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.2-1.1-2.1-2.1-3.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.6-3.1-4.0-5.1-5.6
Exports (EUR billion)11.512.814.115.116.4
Imports (EUR billion)15.115.918.120.222.0
Exports (annual variation in %)7.611.99.87.48.8
Imports (annual variation in %)2.45.513.411.89.2
International Reserves (EUR)10.410.210.011.313.4
External Debt (% of GDP)71.968.869.460.362.1

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Serbia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.050.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate104.9-0.31 %Jan 01

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