Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

Recent data shows that GDP expanded 2.1% in Q3 against the same quarter last year—the fastest rate since Q4 2016. Moreover, in September industrial production expanded solidly compared to the same month in the prior year, driven by strong growth in the manufacturing, and mining and quarrying sectors. Exports also continued to grow at a double-digit rate. On 7 November, the IMF concluded a visit to Serbia. It noted that the country’s public debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen significantly since 2015 and generally praised Serbia’s recent economic performance. However, the IMF noted business-friendly reforms are still needed, such as a modernization of the tax system and increased transparency related to public fees and charges. Looking ahead, the possibility of parliamentary elections being called before schedule early next year, which would be the third premature elections called since 2014, translates into economic uncertainty going forward.

Serbia Economic Growth

Accommodative fiscal and monetary policy should provide a boost to domestic demand next year. Moreover, strong demand from Europe is expected to support the external sector. However, the uncertainty surrounding possible early elections in 2018 clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth to reach 3.0% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, panelists again project growth of 3.0%.

Serbia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)7.27.27.17.17.0
GDP per capita (USD)5,4566,1876,4775,2885,396
GDP per capita (EUR)4,2994,7604,7314,7464,857
GDP (USD bn)39.344.346.237.537.9
GDP (EUR bn)31.034.133.733.634.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.02.6-1.80.82.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.1-0.4-1.30.40.8
Investment (annual variation in %)13.2-12.0-3.65.64.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-3.45.6-6.18.44.8
Unemployment Rate23.922.119.217.715.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.8-5.5-6.6-3.7-1.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.656.867.971.970.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-1.513.912.114.415.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.37.92.11.41.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.259.508.004.504.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)85.1583.34100.3111.9117.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)88.0185.1388.47108.8111.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)112.3114.6121.1121.3123.4
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)113.1113.1117.3120.7123.1
Current Account (% of GDP)-12.0-6.3-5.7-4.7-4.0
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-3.7-2.1-1.9-1.6-1.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-5.7-4.2-4.0-4.0-3.5
Exports (EUR billion)8.510.710.311.312.7
Imports (EUR billion)14.215.014.315.316.2
Exports (annual variation in %)4.626.5-3.89.512.1
Imports (annual variation in %)3.85.5-4.46.85.5
International Reserves (EUR)10.911.29.910.410.2
External Debt (% of GDP)86.179.767.376.173.9

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Serbia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.750.0 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate101.3-0.31 %Dec 06
Stock Market1,644-0.44 %Dec 06

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