Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

July 3, 2018

Leading data for Q2 continues to show a solid economic performance. In April, real wage growth picked up, boding well for private consumption growth, while retail sales figures were robust in May. In addition, foreign demand remains healthy, and export growth accelerated for the second straight month in May, likely on the back of strong demand from the Eurozone. On the downside, industrial production growth softened in the same month. On 13 June, the Serbian government and the IMF came to an agreement on the conditions of a 30-month Policy Coordination Instrument, a non-financial assistance program. The program focuses on minimizing public debt through fiscal discipline, reforming tax and pension policies, and improving the business climate. The agreement is scheduled to be reviewed by the IMF Executive Board in July and follows the successful completion of a USD 1.3 billion three-year program with the IMF in February.

Serbia Economic Growth

The economy is expected to log its best performance in a decade this year, driven by robust domestic demand. Structural changes and economic reforms aimed at bolstering the private sector, improving fiscal policies and reviving infrastructure investment should continue to boost Serbia’s growth potential. Our panelists expect the economy to grow 3.4% in 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, GDP growth is expected to dip slightly to 3.2%.

Serbia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.27.17.17.17.0
GDP per capita (USD)6,3506,1895,2355,4265,908
GDP per capita (EUR)4,7814,6724,7204,9055,234
GDP (USD bn)45.544.137.138.341.5
GDP (EUR bn)34.333.333.534.636.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.6-1.80.82.81.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.4-1.30.40.81.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-12.0-3.65.65.16.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.6-6.18.44.83.5
Unemployment Rate22.119.217.715.313.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-6.6-3.7-1.31.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)59.670.474.771.961.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)13.912.114.415.17.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.92.11.41.13.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.508.004.504.003.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)83.1399.5111.3117.199.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)85.1788.54108.9111.3107.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)114.6121.0121.6123.5118.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)113.1117.3120.7123.1121.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-6.0-3.7-3.1-5.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.1-2.0-1.2-1.1-2.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.2-4.1-3.6-3.1-4.0
Exports (EUR billion)10.510.611.512.814.1
Imports (EUR billion)14.714.815.115.918.1
Exports (annual variation in %)25.51.27.611.910.0
Imports (annual variation in %)4.70.52.45.513.4
International Reserves (EUR)11.29.910.410.210.0
External Debt (% of GDP)77.670.476.773.074.4

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Serbia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.900.0 %Jul 17
Exchange Rate101.2-0.31 %Jul 17
Stock Market1,536-0.44 %Jul 17

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