Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

September 8, 2020

The Covid-19 crisis dealt a notable blow to the economy in Q2. Restrictive measures limiting activity weighed heavily on private consumption and capital expenditure. The pandemic also dragged on foreign demand as exports of goods and services fell by over a fifth compared to a year earlier. Turning to Q3, retail sales grew robustly and industrial output inched up in July; however, tourist arrivals were down by over half in the same month and the tightening of restrictive measures in July amid a new wave of infections is expected to have weighed on the economy. Meanwhile, the IMF concluded the fourth review under its policy coordination instrument in late August, noting the strong action taken by the government to mitigate the blow from Covid-19, and advocating for a return to fiscal consolidation next year.

Serbia Economic Growth

GDP is forecast to contract this year due to Covid-19 containment measures dragging on domestic and foreign demand. As such, private consumption and business activity as well as tourism and exports of goods are expected to suffer. The fiscal and monetary stimulus should cushion the fall somewhat, although a second wave of Covid-19 cases poses a risk. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 2.8% in 2020, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growing 4.9% in 2021.

Serbia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)7.17.17.07.07.0
GDP per capita (USD)5,5875,7576,2887,2327,380
GDP per capita (EUR)5,0345,2035,5806,1306,593
GDP (USD bn)39.640.644.150.651.4
GDP (EUR bn)35.736.739.242.945.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.83.32.04.44.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.51.32.03.03.2
Investment (annual variation in %)4.95.47.317.816.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)7.35.23.91.30.3
Unemployment Rate17.715.313.512.710.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-1.21.10.6-0.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)69.567.659.353.752.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)14.415.17.916.716.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.41.13.22.01.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.003.503.002.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)111.9117.298.56103.2104.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)108.8111.3107.7100.2105.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)121.3123.4118.3118.3117.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)120.7123.1121.4118.2117.8
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.5-2.9-5.2-4.8-6.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.2-1.1-2.1-2.1-3.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.6-3.1-4.0-5.1-5.6
Exports (EUR billion)11.512.814.115.116.4
Imports (EUR billion)15.115.918.120.222.0
Exports (annual variation in %)7.611.99.87.48.8
Imports (annual variation in %)2.45.513.411.89.2
International Reserves (EUR)10.410.210.011.313.4
External Debt (% of GDP)71.968.869.460.362.1

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Serbia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.050.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate104.9-0.31 %Jan 01

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