Serbia Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020The economy should have shrunk at a softer pace in the third quarter amid the reopening of economies. Industrial production swung from a notable contraction in the second quarter to a solid expansion in the third. Moreover, retail sales grew at a solid pace in July–September, contrasting Q2’s drop. On the external front, merchandise exports continued to contract in the first two months of Q3, although at a noticeably softer pace compared to Q2. Similarly, the drop in tourist arrivals in July–August was less severe than the fall seen in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, a new government was installed on 29 October, but President Aleksandar Vucic stated in mid-October that a snap election would be held by 3 April 2022 at the latest. The new government will work towards EU membership, while strengthening the health care system and the economy in the wake of Covid-19.
Serbia Economic GrowthFollowing the pandemic-induced downturn this year, the economy is forecast to recover strongly next year as both domestic and external demand strengthen amid the reopening of the global economy. However, the outlook is clouded by lingering uncertainty over the pandemic; further waves of the virus could prompt renewed restrictions, weighing on activity in turn. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 4.9% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month, and 4.1% in 2022.
Serbia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||3.05||0.0 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||104.9||-0.31 %||Jan 01|
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Serbia Economic News
November 12, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.1% month-on-month in October, swinging from the 0.5% drop recorded in September.
November 12, 2020
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) opted to stand pat at its 12 November meeting, keeping the key policy rate at the all-time low of 1.25%.
October 30, 2020
Industrial output increased 4.6% in year-on-year terms in September, which was above August's 4.2% rise and marked the strongest expansion since February.
October 12, 2020
Consumer prices fell 0.5% month-on-month in September, down from the 0.1% drop recorded in August.
October 8, 2020
At its 8 October meeting, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) decided to maintain the key policy rate at the all-time low of 1.25%, marking the fourth consecutive hold. The decision reflected the Board’s assessment that the monetary policy action taken so far is sufficient to mitigate the blow from Covid-19.