Serbia Economic Outlook
May 7, 2019
Economic momentum ebbed notably in the first quarter of the year. While details of the GDP print are not yet available, the slowdown was likely due to weaker fixed investment and meager industrial production, which fell in March after a brief rebound in February. Turning to Q2, growth will likely remain subdued amid a weakening Eurozone and ongoing political turmoil at home and abroad. Widespread anti-government protests and calls for snap elections persisted in April; moreover, although Germany and France recently increased pressure on Serbia and Kosovo to come to a final agreement, renewed negotiations are unlikely to lead to a definitive deal any time soon. On a brighter note, Fitch Ratings affirmed its BB credit rating and stable outlook for Serbia on 3 May, commending the country’s efforts in strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals, reducing public debt and engaging in IMF-backed reforms.Serbia Economic Growth
The economy is expected to lose traction this year, partly due to an unfavorable base effect following last year’s strong performance. A slowdown in the EU and regional tensions, which could weigh on FDI and business confidence, are the main downside risks to the outlook. Near historic-low unemployment, greater fiscal stimulus, and IMF-backed reforms should support growth, however. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.4% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2020.Serbia Economy Data
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Serbia Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 3.85 | 0.0 % | May 13 |
| Exchange Rate | 105.1 | -0.31 % | May 13 |
| Stock Market | 1,577 | -0.44 % | May 13 |
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Serbia Economic News
Serbia: NBS keeps key policy rate on hold in May
May 9, 2019
At its 9 May monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) voted to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 3.00%, where it has been for over one year.
Serbia: Economy cools in Q1 2019
April 30, 2019
According to a flash estimate released by the Statistical Institute on 30 April, the economy lost ground at the outset of 2019.
Serbia: Industrial production declines in March after a brief recovery in February
April 30, 2019
Industrial production fell 2.8% over the same month a year prior in March, contrasting the 2.4% increase logged in February.
Serbia: Inflation reaches over one-year high in March
April 12, 2019
According to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, consumer prices rose 0.4% over the prior month in March, down from the 0.7% increase logged in February.
Serbia: NBS maintains monetary policy course in April
April 9, 2019
At its 9 April monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) voted to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 3.00%, where it has been for one year. Well-anchored inflation expectations were the key factor behind the Bank’s decision to hold the key policy rate at its latest meeting.
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