Serbia Economic Outlook
November 27, 2018A preliminary estimate for third quarter GDP reaffirms the economy is on track for the best yearly performance in a decade. While growth softened from Q2’s robust expansion, the headline figure was solid nonetheless, likely propelled by domestic demand. Brisk retail sales growth throughout the quarter, combined with an improving labor market, indicate strong consumer spending. Moreover, flagship infrastructure projects should have supported both private and public investment. In recent news, on 21 November Kosovo slapped 100% trade tariffs on Serbian and Bosnian goods, in retaliation against Serbia’s campaign to prevent Kosovo’s membership to the international police organization INTERPOL. Kosovo, which purchases approximately EUR 400 million worth of Serbian goods every year, had already imposed 10% tariffs in early November and Serbia’s Chamber of Commerce noted that exports to Kosovo have plummeted by 50% since then. The recent developments highlight the progress yet to be made on normalizing relations between the two countries.
Serbia Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to power ahead in 2019, albeit at a weaker pace than this year’s robust expansion. Momentum should come on the back of strong domestic demand, which will be underpinned by a strengthening labor market, fiscal stimulus and higher FDI inflows. Less-than-expected progress in structural reforms and slower growth in the Eurozone represent downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 3.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and to grow 3.3% in 2020.
Serbia Economy Data
5 years of Serbia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||3.73||0.0 %||Dec 12|
|Exchange Rate||104.1||-0.31 %||Dec 12|
|Stock Market||1,563||-0.44 %||Dec 12|
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Serbia Economic News
December 6, 2018
On 6 December, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) voted to keep the key policy rate steady at 3.00%, where it has now been since April. At its latest monetary policy meeting, the Bank judged its current monetary policy stance supportive of overall price stability, while also buttressing strong economic momentum.
December 3, 2018
According to a comprehensive estimate released by the Statistical Institute on 30 November, economic growth moderated in the third quarter following two robust GDP prints in the first half of the year.
November 30, 2018
According to data released by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, industrial production rebounded 3.2% over the same month last year in October, following the 1.2% decline logged in September. The recovery was chiefly driven by a strong pick-up in manufacturing production, which hit a nine-month high in October.
November 13, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.3% from the previous month in October, following a 0.3% decline in September.
November 8, 2018
At its 8 November monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) voted to keep the key policy rate steady at 3.00%, where it has now been for eight months.