Serbia Economic Outlook
September 8, 2020The Covid-19 crisis dealt a notable blow to the economy in Q2. Restrictive measures limiting activity weighed heavily on private consumption and capital expenditure. The pandemic also dragged on foreign demand as exports of goods and services fell by over a fifth compared to a year earlier. Turning to Q3, retail sales grew robustly and industrial output inched up in July; however, tourist arrivals were down by over half in the same month and the tightening of restrictive measures in July amid a new wave of infections is expected to have weighed on the economy. Meanwhile, the IMF concluded the fourth review under its policy coordination instrument in late August, noting the strong action taken by the government to mitigate the blow from Covid-19, and advocating for a return to fiscal consolidation next year.
Serbia Economic GrowthGDP is forecast to contract this year due to Covid-19 containment measures dragging on domestic and foreign demand. As such, private consumption and business activity as well as tourism and exports of goods are expected to suffer. The fiscal and monetary stimulus should cushion the fall somewhat, although a second wave of Covid-19 cases poses a risk. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 2.8% in 2020, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growing 4.9% in 2021.
Serbia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||3.05||0.0 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||104.9||-0.31 %||Jan 01|
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Serbia Economic News
August 31, 2020
The economy received a notable blow in the second quarter from Covid-19 and related containment measures, with GDP contracting 6.4% on an annual basis (Q1: +5.1% year-on-year).
August 31, 2020
Industrial production increased 0.4% year-on-year in July (June: +2.6% yoy).
August 13, 2020
At its meeting on 13 August, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) opted to stand pat and keep the key policy rate unchanged at an all-time low of 1.25%.
August 12, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.22% from the last month in July, slowing down from June's 0.60% increase.
July 31, 2020
Industrial output grew 2.6% in year-on-year terms in June, which contrasted May's 9.3% decrease.