Serbia Economic Outlook
November 30, 2021The economy should have continued to grow in Q3, albeit at a somewhat softer pace than in Q2. Industrial output growth slowed notably in the quarter, while growth in goods exports also lost steam. In addition, merchandise imports expanded at a softer rate in the period, pointing to cooling momentum in the domestic economy. Moreover, retail sales growth slowed on average in the third quarter, partly due to rising price pressures eating into consumers’ pockets. Turning to the fourth quarter, inflation will continue to weigh on household spending, with price pressures reaching an over eight-year high in October. Meanwhile, on 3 November the government adopted the 2022 draft budget, which projects a 3.0% fiscal deficit. A key element of the budget is infrastructure investment, which should improve growth potential. The plan was greenlighted by parliament in late November.
Serbia Economic GrowthEconomic growth should ease next year due to a less favorable base effect. However, stronger capital expenditure outlays should spill over and buoy household spending through improved employment levels and wage growth. EU funds and government investment should further support activity, but pandemic-related uncertainty poses a risk. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 4.5% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.0% in 2023.
Serbia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||3.05||0.0 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||104.9||-0.31 %||Jan 01|
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Serbia Economic News
November 12, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.94% in October over the previous month, picking up from the 0.78% rise recorded in September.
November 9, 2021
At its 9 November meeting, the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) left the key policy rate unchanged at its all-time low of 1.00%.
October 30, 2021
Industrial output increased 0.9% year-on-year in October, which was down from September’s 1.4% increase.
October 29, 2021
Industrial output increased 1.4% compared to the same month of the previous year in September, which was above August's 0.1% increase.
October 12, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.78% in September over the previous month, slowing down from August's 0.88% rise.