Serbia Economic Outlook
February 6, 2018The economy had a mixed performance in 2017, with slow economic growth in the first half of the year followed by an acceleration in the second half. A flash estimate released by the Statistical Institute on 31 January put year-on-year economic growth at 2.5% in the fourth quarter, up from 2.1% in the third quarter and placing overall economic growth at 1.9% in 2017. Moreover, customs data suggested that exports grew healthily in December, although the trade deficit still increased as imports grew at a faster pace. Meanwhile, on the political front, local elections will take place in Belgrade on 4 March. Some politicians from the ruling Progressive Party had called for holding snap parliamentary elections alongside them. But, in a move that should steady the political landscape, President Aleksandar Vucic said on 8 January that his Progressive Party does not plan to call snap elections this year.
Serbia Economic GrowthIncreased government spending, particularly on wages, pensions and infrastructure investment, should support domestic demand in 2018. Moreover, the continuation of accommodative monetary policy should support the economy this year. However, although public debt is now on a downward trend, it remains large enough to be of concern. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth to reach 3.1% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, panelists again project growth of 3.1%.
Serbia Economy Data
5 years of Serbia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.25||0.0 %||Feb 22|
|Exchange Rate||95.73||-0.31 %||Feb 22|
|Stock Market||1,593||-0.44 %||Feb 22|
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Serbia Economic News
February 8, 2018
At its 8 February monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) maintained its key policy rate at 3.50% for the fourth consecutive month.
January 31, 2018
According to a flash estimate released by the Statistical Institute on 31 January, the economy grew 2.5% in the fourth quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier, higher than the 2.1% growth recorded in the third quarter. The fourth quarter’s print puts full-year growth at 1.8% in 2017, which is below a flash estimate—released by the Statistical Institute on 29 December—of 1.9%.
January 31, 2018
Industrial production expanded 0.5% in December from the same month last year, a significant deceleration from November’s 5.5% year-on-year expansion. According to the Statistical Institute, December’s deteriorated reading was due to worse performances in the manufacturing sector, which slowed from year-on-year growth of 8.2% in November to 0.4 in December, and the mining and quarrying sector, which slowed from a year-on-year expansion of 5.0% in November to 3.3% in December.
January 15, 2018
Consumer prices remained unchanged from the previous month in December, just as they did in November.
January 11, 2018
At its 11 January monetary policy meeting, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) maintained its key policy rate at 3.50% for the third consecutive month.