Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

May 10, 2022

Available data for the first quarter of the year pointed to largely upbeat activity, though the war in Ukraine will have dented momentum toward the tail end. Merchandise exports rose at a faster clip in the quarter, while stronger goods import growth pointed to firming domestic demand. Retail sales shifted into a higher gear in Q1, mainly due to skyrocketing growth in March. Sequential data for February and March showed that industrial output gained steam. However, household consumption should cool from the tail end of Q1 and into Q2 due to the war in Ukraine: Inflation rose to a near nine-year high in March amid costlier food and energy. Rising producer price inflation in February and March suggests the worst is yet to come. That said, price caps on petrol and diesel will remain in place until the end of May, and the excise duty was recently lowered by 15.0% in bids to support consumers.

Serbia Economic Growth

The economy will grow at a softer pace this year due to the war in Ukraine. Goods and services exports will take a hit amid sanctions against Russia dragging on tourism and trade. Higher commodity prices will fuel inflation, eating into consumers’ pockets and dealing a blow to household consumption despite a tighter labor market and solid wage growth. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.7% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2023.

Serbia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)7.17.17.07.07.0
GDP per capita (USD)5,5875,7576,2887,2327,380
GDP per capita (EUR)5,0345,2035,5806,1306,593
GDP (USD bn)39.640.644.150.651.4
GDP (EUR bn)35.736.739.242.945.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.83.32.04.44.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.51.32.03.03.2
Investment (annual variation in %)4.95.47.317.816.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)7.35.23.91.30.3
Unemployment Rate17.715.313.512.710.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-1.21.10.6-0.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)69.567.659.353.752.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)14.415.17.916.716.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.41.13.22.01.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.003.503.002.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)111.9117.298.56103.2104.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)108.8111.3107.7100.2105.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)121.3123.4118.3118.3117.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)120.7123.1121.4118.2117.8
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.5-2.9-5.2-4.8-6.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.2-1.1-2.1-2.1-3.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.6-3.1-4.0-5.1-5.6
Exports (EUR billion)11.512.814.115.116.4
Imports (EUR billion)15.115.918.120.222.0
Exports (annual variation in %)7.611.99.87.48.8
Imports (annual variation in %)2.45.513.411.89.2
International Reserves (EUR)10.410.210.011.313.4
External Debt (% of GDP)71.968.869.460.362.1

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Serbia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.050.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate104.9-0.31 %Jan 01

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