Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

May 7, 2019

Economic momentum ebbed notably in the first quarter of the year. While details of the GDP print are not yet available, the slowdown was likely due to weaker fixed investment and meager industrial production, which fell in March after a brief rebound in February. Turning to Q2, growth will likely remain subdued amid a weakening Eurozone and ongoing political turmoil at home and abroad. Widespread anti-government protests and calls for snap elections persisted in April; moreover, although Germany and France recently increased pressure on Serbia and Kosovo to come to a final agreement, renewed negotiations are unlikely to lead to a definitive deal any time soon. On a brighter note, Fitch Ratings affirmed its BB credit rating and stable outlook for Serbia on 3 May, commending the country’s efforts in strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals, reducing public debt and engaging in IMF-backed reforms.

Serbia Economic Growth

The economy is expected to lose traction this year, partly due to an unfavorable base effect following last year’s strong performance. A slowdown in the EU and regional tensions, which could weigh on FDI and business confidence, are the main downside risks to the outlook. Near historic-low unemployment, greater fiscal stimulus, and IMF-backed reforms should support growth, however. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.4% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2020.

Serbia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.27.17.17.17.0
GDP per capita (USD)6,3506,1895,2355,4265,908
GDP per capita (EUR)4,7814,6724,7204,9055,234
GDP (USD bn)45.544.137.138.341.5
GDP (EUR bn)34.333.333.534.636.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.6-1.80.82.81.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.4-1.30.40.81.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-12.0-3.65.65.16.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.6-6.18.44.83.5
Unemployment Rate22.119.217.715.313.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-6.6-3.7-1.31.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)59.670.474.771.961.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)13.912.114.415.17.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.92.11.41.13.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.508.004.504.003.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)83.1399.5111.3117.199.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)85.1788.54108.9111.3107.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)114.6121.0121.6123.5118.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)113.1117.3120.7123.1121.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-6.0-3.7-3.1-5.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.1-2.0-1.2-1.1-2.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.2-4.1-3.6-3.1-4.0
Exports (EUR billion)10.510.611.512.814.1
Imports (EUR billion)14.714.815.115.918.1
Exports (annual variation in %)25.51.27.611.910.0
Imports (annual variation in %)4.70.52.45.513.4
International Reserves (EUR)11.29.910.410.210.0
External Debt (% of GDP)77.670.476.773.074.4

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Serbia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield3.850.0 %May 13
Exchange Rate105.1-0.31 %May 13
Stock Market1,577-0.44 %May 13

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