Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

November 30, 2021

The economy should have continued to grow in Q3, albeit at a somewhat softer pace than in Q2. Industrial output growth slowed notably in the quarter, while growth in goods exports also lost steam. In addition, merchandise imports expanded at a softer rate in the period, pointing to cooling momentum in the domestic economy. Moreover, retail sales growth slowed on average in the third quarter, partly due to rising price pressures eating into consumers’ pockets. Turning to the fourth quarter, inflation will continue to weigh on household spending, with price pressures reaching an over eight-year high in October. Meanwhile, on 3 November the government adopted the 2022 draft budget, which projects a 3.0% fiscal deficit. A key element of the budget is infrastructure investment, which should improve growth potential. The plan was greenlighted by parliament in late November.

Serbia Economic Growth

Economic growth should ease next year due to a less favorable base effect. However, stronger capital expenditure outlays should spill over and buoy household spending through improved employment levels and wage growth. EU funds and government investment should further support activity, but pandemic-related uncertainty poses a risk. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 4.5% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.0% in 2023.

Serbia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)7.17.17.07.07.0
GDP per capita (USD)5,5875,7576,2887,2327,380
GDP per capita (EUR)5,0345,2035,5806,1306,593
GDP (USD bn)39.640.644.150.651.4
GDP (EUR bn)35.736.739.242.945.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.83.32.04.44.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.51.32.03.03.2
Investment (annual variation in %)4.95.47.317.816.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)7.35.23.91.30.3
Unemployment Rate17.715.313.512.710.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-1.21.10.6-0.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)69.567.659.353.752.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)14.415.17.916.716.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.41.13.22.01.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.003.503.002.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)111.9117.298.56103.2104.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)108.8111.3107.7100.2105.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)121.3123.4118.3118.3117.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)120.7123.1121.4118.2117.8
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.5-2.9-5.2-4.8-6.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.2-1.1-2.1-2.1-3.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.6-3.1-4.0-5.1-5.6
Exports (EUR billion)11.512.814.115.116.4
Imports (EUR billion)15.115.918.120.222.0
Exports (annual variation in %)7.611.99.87.48.8
Imports (annual variation in %)2.45.513.411.89.2
International Reserves (EUR)10.410.210.011.313.4
External Debt (% of GDP)71.968.869.460.362.1

Sample Report

5 years of Serbia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Serbia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.050.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate104.9-0.31 %Jan 01

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Serbia Economic News

Search form