Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

May 12, 2020

The domestic-driven economy is taking a beating in the second quarter as the lockdown measures have stifled the services sector and caused an inevitable spike in unemployment. Moreover, elevated uncertainty, postponed projects and a retreat in FDI will be battering fixed investment, which had surged at the end of 2019. Although limited, data for the end of Q1 highlights the incipient downturn: In March, tourist arrivals fell by over 50%, industrial production dipped and merchandise exports tumbled on frail demand from key trading partners Germany and Italy. The government’s strong fiscal response should help cushion the blow, however. On 1 May, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Serbia from positive to stable, citing the economic fallout and the worsening external financing scenario as downside risks, although Serbia’s buffers of high international reserves and fiscal space represent upside risks to the outlook.

Serbia Economic Growth

After five years of uninterrupted growth, the economy is expected to contract this year due to containment measures and the deteriorating global backdrop. Private consumption, fixed investment, and exports will all be devastated by the pandemic, although robust fiscal and monetary stimulus should limit the contraction and spur a swift recovery. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 3.2% in 2020, which is down 2.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growing 5.1% in 2021.

Serbia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)7.17.17.07.07.0
GDP per capita (USD)5,5875,7576,2887,2327,380
GDP per capita (EUR)5,0345,2035,5806,1306,593
GDP (USD bn)39.640.644.150.651.4
GDP (EUR bn)35.736.739.242.945.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.83.32.04.44.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.51.32.03.03.2
Investment (annual variation in %)4.95.47.317.816.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)7.35.23.91.30.3
Unemployment Rate17.715.313.512.710.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-1.21.10.6-0.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)69.567.659.353.752.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)14.415.17.916.716.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.41.13.22.01.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.003.503.002.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)111.9117.298.56103.2104.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)108.8111.3107.7100.2105.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)121.3123.4118.3118.3117.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)120.7123.1121.4118.2117.8
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.5-2.9-5.2-4.8-6.9
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.2-1.1-2.1-2.1-3.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-3.6-3.1-4.0-5.1-5.6
Exports (EUR billion)11.512.814.115.116.4
Imports (EUR billion)15.115.918.120.222.0
Exports (annual variation in %)7.611.99.87.48.8
Imports (annual variation in %)2.45.513.411.89.2
International Reserves (EUR)10.410.210.011.313.4
External Debt (% of GDP)71.968.869.460.362.1

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Serbia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.050.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate104.9-0.31 %Jan 01

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