Serbia Economic Forecast

Serbia Economic Outlook

March 5, 2019

Economic momentum ebbed at the end of 2018, while weaker growth dynamics seem to have carried over into Q1 2019. Cooling domestic demand—with fixed investment slowing particularly notably—and a weak external sector led the slowdown in Q4. More recently, industrial production stumbled again in January, hampered by operational issues related to electricity generation and weaker external demand stemming from slower growth in key trading partners. On a brighter note, brisk retail sales growth in January should bode well for household spending. In other news, on a visit in early February, the IMF praised Serbia on its sounder fiscal stance and also commended the government’s decision to privatize a petrochemical plant and major bank. Moreover, Kosovo and Serbia appear to be making progress on negotiations, with both parties hoping for a final settlement this year.

Serbia Economic Growth

The economy is seen slowing this year. A slowdown in the Euro-area and more subdued domestic demand will likely dampen growth. Nevertheless, progress on pertinent IMF-supported reforms and the EU accession agenda should boost investor confidence and continue to improve macroeconomic fundamentals over the medium-term. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 3.4% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2020.

Serbia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.27.17.17.17.0
GDP per capita (USD)6,3506,1895,2355,4265,908
GDP per capita (EUR)4,7814,6724,7204,9055,234
GDP (USD bn)45.544.137.138.341.5
GDP (EUR bn)34.333.333.534.636.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.6-1.80.82.81.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.4-1.30.40.81.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-12.0-3.65.65.16.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.6-6.18.44.83.5
Unemployment Rate22.119.217.715.313.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-6.6-3.7-1.31.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)59.670.474.771.961.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)13.912.114.415.17.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.92.11.41.13.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.508.004.504.003.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)83.1399.5111.3117.199.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)85.1788.54108.9111.3107.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)114.6121.0121.6123.5118.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)113.1117.3120.7123.1121.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.1-6.0-3.7-3.1-5.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.1-2.0-1.2-1.1-2.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.2-4.1-3.6-3.1-4.0
Exports (EUR billion)10.510.611.512.814.1
Imports (EUR billion)14.714.815.115.918.1
Exports (annual variation in %)25.51.27.611.910.0
Imports (annual variation in %)4.70.52.45.513.4
International Reserves (EUR)11.29.910.410.210.0
External Debt (% of GDP)77.670.476.773.074.4

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Serbia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.000.0 %Mar 11
Exchange Rate105.0-0.31 %Mar 11
Stock Market1,535-0.44 %Mar 11

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