Serbia Economic Outlook
May 10, 2022Available data for the first quarter of the year pointed to largely upbeat activity, though the war in Ukraine will have dented momentum toward the tail end. Merchandise exports rose at a faster clip in the quarter, while stronger goods import growth pointed to firming domestic demand. Retail sales shifted into a higher gear in Q1, mainly due to skyrocketing growth in March. Sequential data for February and March showed that industrial output gained steam. However, household consumption should cool from the tail end of Q1 and into Q2 due to the war in Ukraine: Inflation rose to a near nine-year high in March amid costlier food and energy. Rising producer price inflation in February and March suggests the worst is yet to come. That said, price caps on petrol and diesel will remain in place until the end of May, and the excise duty was recently lowered by 15.0% in bids to support consumers.
Serbia Economic GrowthThe economy will grow at a softer pace this year due to the war in Ukraine. Goods and services exports will take a hit amid sanctions against Russia dragging on tourism and trade. Higher commodity prices will fuel inflation, eating into consumers’ pockets and dealing a blow to household consumption despite a tighter labor market and solid wage growth. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.7% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2023.
Serbia Economy Data
5 years of Serbia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||3.05||0.0 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||104.9||-0.31 %||Jan 01|
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Serbia Economic News
May 13, 2022
Consumer prices rose 1.50% from the previous month in April, coming in above the 0.80% increase recorded in March.
April 29, 2022
Industrial output jumped 7.7% year on year in March, swinging from February’s 0.7% contraction.
April 14, 2022
Consumer prices rose 0.80% from the previous month in March, coming in below the 1.10% increase recorded in February.
April 7, 2022
At its meeting on 7 April, the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) delivered a bigger-than-expected rate hike, bringing the key policy rate up by 50 basis points to 1.50% from 1.00%.
March 31, 2022
Industrial output declined 0.7% year-on-year in February, up from January’s 2.6% contraction.