Serbia Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020The economy should have shrunk at a softer pace in the third quarter amid the reopening of economies. Industrial production swung from a notable contraction in the second quarter to a solid expansion in the third. Moreover, retail sales grew at a solid pace in July–September, contrasting Q2’s drop. On the external front, merchandise exports continued to contract in the first two months of Q3, although at a noticeably softer pace compared to Q2. Similarly, the drop in tourist arrivals in July–August was less severe than the fall seen in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, a new government was installed on 29 October, but President Aleksandar Vucic stated in mid-October that a snap election would be held by 3 April 2022 at the latest. The new government will work towards EU membership, while strengthening the health care system and the economy in the wake of Covid-19.
Serbia Economic GrowthFollowing the pandemic-induced downturn this year, the economy is forecast to recover strongly next year as both domestic and external demand strengthen amid the reopening of the global economy. However, the outlook is clouded by lingering uncertainty over the pandemic; further waves of the virus could prompt renewed restrictions, weighing on activity in turn. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 4.9% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month, and 4.1% in 2022.
Serbia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||3.05||0.0 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||104.9||-0.31 %||Jan 01|
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Serbia Economic News
February 22, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.60% month-on-month in January, up from December’s 0.10% increase.
February 11, 2021
The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia held fire at its 11 February meeting, leaving the key policy rate unchanged at its all-time low of 1.00%.
January 29, 2021
Industrial production grew 4.1% year-on-year in December, swinging from the 1.4% contraction in November.
January 14, 2021
At its first meeting of the new year on 14 January, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia decided to keep the key policy rate at the all-time low of 1.00%, after lowering it by 25 basis points at its previous meeting in December.
January 4, 2021
Industrial output decreased 1.4% in year-on-year terms in November, which contrasted October's 1.9% increase.