Euro Area Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for the Euro Area

October 27, 2021

Euro area economy seen rebounding in 2022

The economy should grow solidly in 2022, amid unleashed pent-up spending, the disbursement of EU funds, loose fiscal and monetary policies and healthy external demand. That said, downside risks stem from high energy prices, pandemic-related uncertainty, protracted supply bottlenecks, banks’ troubled assets and high public debt stocks in the Mediterranean countries.

Inflation to moderate in 2022

Harmonized inflation came in at 3.4% in September, above August’s 3.0% and marking the highest print since September 2008, again boosted by soaring energy prices. Inflation should moderate in 2022 compared to 2021 amid a waning base effect. That said, sustained energy and transport prices and the ECB’s ultra-loose stance pose upside risks.


 

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