Euro Area Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for the Euro Area

November 23, 2022

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Economic Growth

The economy will weaken considerably next year. Household spending will cool markedly due to still-high inflation, increased interest rates and reduced savings. Moreover, a less supportive global economic backdrop will weigh on the external sector and investment. Gas supply cuts from Russia, high public debts and volatile commodity prices pose downside risks.

Inflation Outlook

Harmonized inflation jumped to a new series high of 10.6% in October, from September’s 9.9%. Inflation should gradually ease next year, curbed by higher interest rates and some normalization in commodity prices. However, faster wage growth and Russian gas supply cuts pose upside risks. A stronger-than-expected euro poses a downside risk.


 

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