Euro Area Economic Outlook
GDP growth is seen near 2024’s level this year. Domestic demand is set to strengthen thanks to ECB rate cuts and EU funds, but exports are forecast to decelerate amid heightened U.S. protectionism; our panel has more than halved its export growth projections since the start of 2025. Trade negotiations between the EU and the U.S. remain the main factor to track.
Euro Area Inflation
In April, harmonized inflation remained at March’s 2.2%, above the ECB’s 2.0% target, as stronger price pressures for food and services offset a sharper decline in energy prices. Inflation is forecast to ease marginally in the coming quarters, remaining close to target amid downbeat oil prices. Supply chain disruptions caused by rising trade barriers pose an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Euro Area from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 38,947 | 43,834 | 42,211 | 45,921 | 47,504 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -6.2 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -6.0 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 1.8 | -1.8 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -7.9 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 8.0 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.4 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -7.8 | 9.0 | 1.8 | -1.6 | -3.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.0 | -5.1 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3.1 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 96.5 | 93.9 | 89.5 | 87.3 | 87.4 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 4.50 | 3.15 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 1.8 | 2.7 | -0.2 | 1.6 | 2.7 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 390 | 345 | -48 | 285 | 402 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 2,397 | 2,876 | 3,023 | 3,055 | 3,069 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 2,007 | 2,530 | 3,071 | 2,770 | 2,666 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 1,079 | 1,197 | 1,187 | 1,267 | 1,448 |
| Money (ann. var. of M2 %) | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | -0.8 | 3.1 |