Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
Our panelists see CENAM GDP growth close to 2025’s expected five-year low in 2026. Both fixed investment and private spending should grow at a roughly steady pace next year, with a sluggish U.S. economy and ramped-up deportations broadly offsetting impetus from looser monetary policy. Immigration and trade policies in the U.S. are key risk factors to monitor.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
In September, inflation picked up in all regional economies, except Costa Rica and Cuba. In 2026, average inflation should inch up from 2025’s projected rate, broadly matching the global average; interest rate cuts and weaker regional currencies should fan price pressures. Extreme weather events fueling food and energy costs are an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2025 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -15.5 | 21.0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -6.0 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 4.4 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 73.4 | 67.8 | 63.9 | 61.3 | 59.5 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,427 | 6,058 | 6,691 | 7,178 | 7,595 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.05 | 2.46 | 6.36 | 5.67 | 4.96 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 151.9 | 190.6 | 232.6 | 234.3 | 223.3 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 132.5 | 151.4 | 171.8 | 167.6 | 169.0 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -19.5 | -39.1 | -60.8 | -66.7 | -54.3 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 74.2 | 80.4 | 79.3 | 86.9 | 91.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 62.2 | 58.0 | 54.7 | 52.3 | 51.9 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.5 | -3.8 | -2.1 | -2.5 | -3.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 9.3 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 6.1 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 0.3 | -1.1 | -1.8 | -0.7 | 0.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -7.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 3.3 |