Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
In 2025, GDP growth in CENAM should hover near both its 2024 level and the global average. Private spending should expand at a robust rate, near the prior-decade average, supported by low unemployment and inflation. Fixed investment should also grow solidly, aided by easing interest rates. That said, shifts in U.S. trade and migration policy pose a downside risk.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
In November, CENAM inflation rose from October’s multi-year low and likely grew further through January. Our panelists see average inflation rising from 2024’s level in 2025 to around the prior-decade average as lower interest rates broadly offset cooling commodity prices. Weaker-than-expected currencies and food price spikes are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | - | - | 4.5 | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 62.4 | 58.4 | 54.8 | - | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 74.2 | 80.4 | 79.3 | 86.9 | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 151.9 | 190.6 | 232.6 | 224.9 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 9.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 6.1 | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,448 | 6,078 | 6,729 | 7,230 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -7.5 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 3.2 | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | - | - | 5.6 | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.5 | -3.8 | -2.1 | - | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.06 | 2.46 | 6.35 | 5.66 | 4.95 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 0.4 | - | -1.7 | -0.6 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 132.5 | 151.4 | 171.8 | 164.9 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 73.6 | 68.1 | 64.1 | 61.4 | - |