Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
In 2025, CENAM GDP growth should drop to the weakest level since the Covid-19 pandemic downturn in 2020 as growth in fixed investment and private spending hit five-year lows. The region will face headwinds from ramped up deportations, protectionism and slowing growth in the U.S. Immigration and trade policy in the U.S. are key risk factors to monitor.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
In June, CENAM inflation hovered near the levels seen since March, but available data suggests disinflation resumed in July. In 2025 as a whole, average inflation should be close to 2024 levels, propped up by interest rate cuts and sharper year-on-year currency depreciation. Still, price pressures should stay below the global average.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,453 | 6,086 | 6,720 | 7,209 | 7,644 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 73.4 | 67.8 | 64.0 | 61.6 | 60.1 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 132.5 | 151.5 | 171.8 | 167.6 | 168.9 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 151.9 | 190.6 | 232.6 | 234.3 | 224.1 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 62.6 | 58.4 | 54.8 | 52.4 | 51.9 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -7.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.05 | 2.46 | 6.36 | 5.67 | 4.96 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 0.3 | - | -1.7 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.5 | -3.8 | -2.1 | -2.5 | -3.2 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 74.2 | 80.4 | 79.3 | 86.9 | 90.9 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | - | - | 4.5 | 3.2 | 4.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 9.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 6.1 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | - | - | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.9 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 |