Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
The Consensus is for regional growth to ease slightly in 2024 as waning momentum in the U.S. cools private spending and investment. On the flipside, sturdier exports growth, resilient tourist inflows and lower inflation and interest rates will provide tailwinds. Political instability, a weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market and extreme weather events are downside risks.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
After falling to 2.7% in December, regional inflation likely waned further in January. It should average lower in 2024 than in 2023 on a high base effect and the delayed impact of previous interest rate hikes. Weaker-than-expected domestic currencies and the El Niño weather event stoking food and energy prices are upside risks.
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP per capita (USD) | 5,651 | 5,222 | 5,772 | 6,410 | - |
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.2 | -7.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | - |
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 3.2 | - | - | - | - |
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 0.8 | - | - | - | - |
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.9 | - | - |
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.1 | -7.5 | -3.8 | -2.2 | - |
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 4.3 |
CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 3.57 | 2.06 | 2.46 | 6.35 | 5.64 |
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 110 | 115 | 146 | 134 | 140 |
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.4 | 0.2 | - | - | - |
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 77.5 | 68.5 | 91.6 | 110.2 | - |
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 121.0 | 100.2 | 137.1 | - | - |
International Reserves (USD bn) | 61.6 | 74.2 | 80.6 | 79.5 | - |
External Debt (% of GDP) | 47.4 | 53.1 | - | - | - |