Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
In 2025, CENAM GDP growth should be the lowest since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Both fixed investment and private spending should decelerate on a sluggish U.S. economy and ramped up deportations. Moreover, global trade frictions and higher U.S. tariffs may weigh on merchandise exports. Immigration and trade policies in the U.S. are key risk factors to monitor.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
In August, CENAM inflation rose from July’s nine-month low, chiefly due to stronger price growth in the Dominican Republic. In 2025 as a whole, average inflation should be close to 2024 levels, as interest rate cuts and sharper currency depreciation broadly offset downward pressure from lower oil prices and subdued private consumption.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2025 to 2011.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,454 | 6,086 | 6,722 | 7,214 | 7,636 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 132.5 | 151.4 | 171.8 | 167.6 | 168.9 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 74.2 | 80.4 | 79.3 | 86.9 | 91.0 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -19.5 | -39.1 | -60.8 | -66.7 | -55.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.05 | 2.46 | 6.36 | 5.67 | 4.96 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -15.5 | 21.0 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.9 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 0.3 | -1.1 | -1.8 | -0.6 | 0.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -7.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 151.9 | 190.6 | 232.6 | 234.3 | 224.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.5 | -3.8 | -2.1 | -2.5 | -3.2 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 62.6 | 58.4 | 54.8 | 52.3 | 51.9 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -6.0 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 4.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 9.3 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 6.1 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 73.4 | 67.8 | 63.9 | 61.3 | 60.1 |