Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
CENAM GDP growth in 2025 is forecast at the lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic downturn in 2020 as growth in fixed investment and private spending fall to five-year lows. Moreover, deportations, protectionism and slowing growth in the U.S. will likely restrain exports and remittances. U.S. trade and immigration policies are risks.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
CENAM inflation remained at April’s five-month low in May, and available data suggests inflation could have stabilized in June. Average inflation should rise from 2024 in 2025 on falling interest rates and sharper year-on-year currency depreciation. Still, price pressures should stay below the global average on lower oil and food costs in the import-dependent region.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2011 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | - | - | 4.5 | 3.2 | 4.0 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 62.5 | 58.3 | 54.8 | 52.3 | 51.9 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 74.2 | 80.4 | 79.3 | 86.9 | 90.8 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 151.9 | 190.6 | 232.6 | 234.3 | 224.1 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 9.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 6.1 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,440 | 6,072 | 6,701 | 7,188 | 7,615 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -7.5 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.5 | -3.8 | -2.1 | -2.5 | -3.2 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 132.5 | 151.5 | 171.8 | 167.6 | 169.0 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | - | - | 5.6 | 7.1 | 4.9 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 0.3 | - | -1.7 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 73.6 | 68.0 | 64.2 | 61.6 | 60.5 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.06 | 2.46 | 6.36 | 5.67 | 4.95 |