Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
CENAM’s GDP growth should continue to outpace its prior-decade average in 2026–2027. The Dominican Republic will drive most of this momentum, while tourism receipts and resilient U.S. demand should support domestic consumption and exports in the region more broadly. That said, energy price shocks, El Niño plus prolonged crises in Cuba and Haiti will pose headwinds.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
In September, regional inflation hit 4.5%—a 25-month high (August: 4.1%). CENAM inflation should outpace 2025’s average in 2026–2027, as the Iran war fuels energy cost pressures and El Niño will fan food prices. Weaker currencies in several countries will also drive up imported price pressures. A stronger-than-expected El Niño is an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2010 to 2026.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 6,056 | 6,702 | 7,181 | 7,604 | 7,975 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.6 | -3.1 | -3.4 | -2.8 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -39.2 | -61.2 | -63.4 | -62.6 | -63.6 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.2 | -2.2 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 0.9 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 17.9 | 2.5 | 25.3 | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 67.6 | 63.5 | 61.4 | 59.9 | 59.7 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 151.4 | 171 | 167.6 | 170 | 172 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.46 | 6.38 | 5.68 | 4.96 | 4.33 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 58.4 | 54.5 | 53.4 | 53.2 | 53.7 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 8.5 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 190.6 | 233 | 231 | 233 | 235 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.0 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 80.4 | 79.3 | 86.9 | 91.0 | 110 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 8.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.7 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 10.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.5 |