Ukraine Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020Sequential data hints at a fragile recovery in Q3, after the Covid-19 outbreak and associated lockdown measures pummeled activity in Q2. Industrial output continued to shrink in September, although at a softer pace than in August thanks to less downbeat manufacturing and energy production. More positively, retail sales growth was robust in Q3, which, coupled with steadily firming, albeit still weak, consumer sentiment, bodes well for household spending. That said, the persistent rise in Covid-19 cases, which picked up notably in October, prompted the government to extend the adaptive quarantine system until year-end—raising the possibility of tightening restrictions and thus potentially hampering the recovery in Q4. In politics, the 25 October local elections dealt a setback to President Zelensky given the weak results for his party and declining approval ratings.
Ukraine Economic GrowthA sharp economic downturn is expected this year due to the Covid-19 blow. Activity is poised to bounce back solidly next year, however, as both external and domestic demand gradually revive, with fiscal and monetary stimulus lending further support. The prolongation of the health crisis, loss of reform momentum and weaknesses in the banking system cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 4.2% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2022, they see GDP expanding 3.6%.
Ukraine Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
|Exchange Rate||23.70||0.30 %||Jan 01|
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Ukraine Economic News
July 23, 2021
Industrial output expanded 1.1% compared to the same month of the previous year in June, moderating from May's 5.4% increase.
July 22, 2021
At its 22 July meeting, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) raised its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 8.00%, surprising market analysts who had expected rates to be held.
July 9, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.22% from the previous month in June, moderating from the 1.28% increase seen in May.
June 30, 2021
Industrial output expanded 5.4% in year-on-year terms in May, which followed April's 13.0% increase.
June 22, 2021
GDP shrank at a quicker rate of 2.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, following the 0.5% contraction recorded in the fourth quarter of last year, according to a second national accounts release.