Ukraine Economic Outlook
October 5, 2021
A second reading revealed that GDP expanded at a quicker pace than initially estimated in Q2. The upturn was spearheaded by a marked acceleration in household consumption and a solid rebound in capital spending. However, the external sector subtracted from the overall result as import growth vastly outpaced a softer contraction in exports. Turning to Q3, growth should have remained robust, but likely softened on a fading base effect. Both industrial output and retail sales expanded at healthy—albeit more modest—paces in July–August. Meanwhile, less upbeat consumer confidence in July and August, coupled with rising price pressures in the same period will have likely capped consumer spending. In other news, on 22 September President Zelensky survived an assassination attempt amid a debate over a law aimed at tackling oligarch influence on the country’s politics—which was ultimately approved on 23 September.Ukraine Economic Growth
The economy is expected to rebound in 2021 as a steady vaccine rollout bolsters private and capital spending. Next year, fixed investment should drive GDP to grow at a similar pace. That said, heightened geopolitical tensions with Russia and Belarus, as well as potential losses due to the Nord Stream pipeline, dampen the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 3.8% in 2021. For 2022, the panel also sees GDP increasing 3.8%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.Ukraine Economy Data
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Ukraine Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 19.00 | 0.0 % | Jul 27 |
| Exchange Rate | 23.70 | 0.30 % | Jan 01 |
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Ukraine Economic News
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Ukraine: Industrial output growth quickens in August
September 22, 2021
Industrial output grew 0.6% year-on-year in August (July: +0.2% yoy).
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Ukraine: Economy records fastest upturn since Q3 2011 in the second quarter on low base effect
September 21, 2021
A second national accounts release confirmed that the economy bounced back in the second quarter, expanding 5.4% year-on-year and contrasting the 2.2% contraction logged in the first quarter.
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Ukraine: NBU raises rates in September, as previously hinted
September 9, 2021
At its 9 September meeting, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) raised its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 8.50%, as expected by some market analysts after the Bank implied at its previous meeting that it would raise rates again before year-end.
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Ukraine: Inflation remains steady in August
September 9, 2021
Consumer prices fell 0.22% from the previous month in August, contrasting July's 0.09% rise.
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Ukraine: Industrial output growth loses steam July
August 30, 2021
Industrial output grew 0.2% compared to the same month of the previous year in July, moderating from June's 1.1% increase.
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