Ukraine Economic Outlook
January 8, 2019
A comprehensive GDP release confirmed that dynamics remained resilient in the third quarter, despite the generally disappointing outturn. Booming domestic demand, led by surging household consumption amid tightening labor market conditions and rising remittances, spearheaded the expansion. However, strong domestic demand dynamics were partly offset by a marked contraction in exports due to weather-related factors and a challenging external environment. Available fourth-quarter metrics suggests momentum remained largely stable. Retail sales edged up in November, against the backdrop of higher consumer confidence and despite an uptick in inflation. On a less positive note, industrial output contracted in the same month, reflecting weakness in the all-important manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, on 21 December, Moody’s upgraded Ukraine’s sovereign credit rating from Caa1 to Caa2 with a stable outlook. The ratings agency identified the recently approved USD 3.9 billion financing agreement with the IMF as the key driver for the upgrade, while citing the country’s improved external strength, the prospect of renewed access to capital markets, and its progress with anti-corruption reforms.Ukraine Economic Growth
Buoyant domestic demand will remain firmly in the driver’s seat of the expansion this year, although growth will lose some steam from 2018. Solid private consumption, helped by a tightening labor market and strong investment activity growth, will be somewhat offset by weaker external demand. Meanwhile, election-related uncertainties cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth of 2.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.Ukraine Economy Data
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Ukraine Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 19.00 | 0.0 % | Jul 27 |
| Exchange Rate | 27.74 | 0.30 % | Jan 30 |
| Stock Market | 552 | 0.21 % | Jan 30 |
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Ukraine Economic News
Ukraine: Inflation eases to two-and-a-half-year low in March
April 11, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.9% month-on-month in March, up from February’s 0.5% increase.
Ukraine: Industrial output contracts again in February
March 22, 2019
According to data released by the Statistical Institute, industrial production fell 1.8% year-on-year in February, compared to a 3.3% drop in January.
Ukraine: Growth gains steam in Q4 2018
March 22, 2019
Comprehensive national accounts data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on 22 March confirmed that growth shifted into a higher gear at the end of 2018.
Ukraine: Central Bank holds the key policy rate stable in March
March 14, 2019
At its 14 March meeting, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) held the key policy rate stable at 18.00%, leaving it at a near three-year high.
Ukraine: Inflation moderates in February
March 12, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.5% month-on-month in February, down from January’s 1.0% increase.
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