Ukraine Economic Outlook
September 8, 2020The economy entered recession in Q2, with GDP contracting at the sharpest annual pace in five years due to the Covid-19 fallout. Although more comprehensive data is yet to be released, domestic demand likely reeled amid strict measures to contain the virus’ spread. The external sector also languished, as evidenced by goods exports plunging at a double-digit rate in the quarter. Looking at Q3, retail sales recovered some strength in July, which, coupled with climbing consumer confidence in the same month, hints that demand is slowly firming. That said, the recent surge in new coronavirus cases, which has prompted authorities to extend restrictions until the end of October, may restrain the fragile recovery, particularly in the services sector. Meanwhile, on 29 August, President Zelensky signed into law a 5.9% minimum wage hike, effective from 1 September, boding well for consumer demand.
Ukraine Economic GrowthEconomic activity is set to plunge this year as the Covid-19 outbreak and associated restrictions hammer both domestic and foreign demand. That said, government support to households and businesses, combined with monetary stimulus, should help to mitigate the downturn somewhat. A second wave of virus infections clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP falling 5.3% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, they see it expanding 4.2%.
Ukraine Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
|Exchange Rate||23.70||0.30 %||Jan 01|
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Ukraine Economic News
September 9, 2020
Consumer prices fell 0.20% in August over the previous month, a more moderate decrease than July's 0.60% fall.
September 3, 2020
At its 3 September meeting, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to hold the key policy rate steady at its all-time low of 6.00%, marking the second consecutive hold and coming in line with market expectations.
August 25, 2020
Industrial production fell 4.2% over the same month last year in July, after it dropped 5.6% in June—marking the softest decline since February.
August 14, 2020
A preliminary release revealed that GDP plunged 11.4% year-on-year in Q2, following Q1’s 1.3% decline and marking the sharpest contraction since Q2 2015.
August 10, 2020
Consumer prices fell 0.60% in July over the last month, swinging from the 0.20% rise recorded in June.