Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

July 30, 2019

Incoming data suggests that the economy likely gained modest ground in recent months, after growth slid to a near two-year low in the first quarter. Retail sales growth gained steam throughout Q2 bolstered by rising wages, while favorable weather contributed to an ample grain harvest at the start of Q3. That said, signs of weakness continue to linger in the industrial sector, where production contracted notably in June. In the political arena, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People party came out on top in the 21 July parliamentary election, clinching 43% of the vote and an absolute majority in parliament. The victory gives Zelensky the muscle to push through sweeping reforms and legislation, although a degree of uncertainty over future policy still persists given Zelensky and his party’s newcomer statuses and lack of political experience.

Ukraine Economic Growth

Ukraine’s prospects were raised a notch this month as a large crop yield shores up the export outlook, while monetary policy loosening and rising wages support the domestic economy. Upside risks include the government delivering reforms faster than expected which could help boost sentiment, while the contrary could result in stalled IMF negotiations and dampen confidence. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth of 2.8% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.

Ukraine Economy Data

Population (million)45.242.842.642.442.2
GDP per capita (USD)3,9743,0582,0552,1752,686
GDP (USD bn)18013187.592.3113
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.0-6.6-
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.9-8.3-
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.4-24.0-9.220.416.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.3-10.1-
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.6-9.8-
Unemployment Rate7.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.3-4.5-1.6-2.3-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.969.479.180.971.8
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.524.943.312.413.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.312.148.514.914.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.5014.0022.0014.0014.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-8.628.8-37.810.218.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.2415.8224.0327.1028.16
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.1512.0221.9525.5626.60
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.2-3.51.8-1.5-2.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-16.5-4.61.6-1.3-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-22.1-7.1-3.5-6.9-9.7
Exports (USD billion)59.150.635.433.639.7
Imports (USD billion)81.257.738.940.549.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-8.3-14.5-29.9-5.318.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-29.0-
International Reserves (USD)20.47.513.315.518.8
External Debt (% of GDP)79.095.6135122102

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Ukraine Facts

Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate25.120.30 %Jul 31
Stock Market5410.21 %Jul 31

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