Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

The recovery continued to flounder in the third quarter, with a preliminary estimate of GDP revealing a third consecutive quarter of decelerating activity. Although a breakdown by components is not yet available, the economy is likely still feeling the repercussions of severed trade ties with the rebel-held Donbass region, which is limiting its export and manufacturing capacities. Buoyant household spending is, however, providing some relief; both wages and retail sales grew robustly in Q3. On the political front, Ukraine made some progress on IMF-mandated reforms in November, taking steps towards passing legislation designed to improve the speed of privatizations. While the country has made gains in implementing economic reforms, progress has been slow overall. Several crucial—and politically unpopular—measures still need to be passed to unlock the next tranche of IMF funding.

Ukraine Economic Growth

Activity is seen gaining momentum next year, as the effects of the trade blockade fade and investment growth strengthens. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP rising 2.9% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, growth is expected to pick up to 3.2%.

Ukraine Economy Data

Population (million)45.445.242.842.642.5
GDP per capita (USD)3,8133,9783,0642,0662,165
GDP (USD bn)17318013188.092.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.20.0-6.6-9.82.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)8.46.9-8.3-20.71.8
Investment (annual variation in %)5.0-8.4-24.0-9.220.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.5-4.3-10.1-13.02.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)13.75.6-9.8-21.04.4
Unemployment Rate7.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.8-4.4-4.9-2.3-3.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)36.739.969.479.181.0
Stock Market (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.20.524.943.312.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.6-0.312.148.514.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)3.7-
Policy Interest Rate (%)7.506.5014.0022.0014.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-38.5-8.628.8-37.810.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.058.2415.8224.0327.10
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.088.1512.0221.9525.56
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.2-9.2-3.4-0.2-4.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-14.3-16.5-4.6-0.2-3.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)-21.9-22.1-7.1-3.5-6.8
Exports (USD billion)64.459.150.635.433.6
Imports (USD billion)86.381.257.738.940.4
Exports (annual variation in %)3.3-8.3-14.5-29.9-5.2
Imports (annual variation in %)7.3-5.8-29.0-32.63.8
International Reserves (USD)24.620.47.513.315.5
External Debt (% of GDP)78.078.996.2135124

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Ukraine Facts

Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 30
Exchange Rate27.130.30 %Dec 06
Stock Market3040.21 %Dec 06

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