Ukraine Economic Outlook
October 5, 2021A second reading revealed that GDP expanded at a quicker pace than initially estimated in Q2. The upturn was spearheaded by a marked acceleration in household consumption and a solid rebound in capital spending. However, the external sector subtracted from the overall result as import growth vastly outpaced a softer contraction in exports. Turning to Q3, growth should have remained robust, but likely softened on a fading base effect. Both industrial output and retail sales expanded at healthy—albeit more modest—paces in July–August. Meanwhile, less upbeat consumer confidence in July and August, coupled with rising price pressures in the same period will have likely capped consumer spending. In other news, on 22 September President Zelensky survived an assassination attempt amid a debate over a law aimed at tackling oligarch influence on the country’s politics—which was ultimately approved on 23 September.
Ukraine Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to rebound in 2021 as a steady vaccine rollout bolsters private and capital spending. Next year, fixed investment should drive GDP to grow at a similar pace. That said, heightened geopolitical tensions with Russia and Belarus, as well as potential losses due to the Nord Stream pipeline, dampen the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 3.8% in 2021. For 2022, the panel also sees GDP increasing 3.8%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Ukraine Economy Data
5 years of Ukraine economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.
|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
|Exchange Rate||23.70||0.30 %||Jan 01|
Request a Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
Ukraine Economic News
September 22, 2021
Industrial output grew 0.6% year-on-year in August (July: +0.2% yoy).
September 21, 2021
A second national accounts release confirmed that the economy bounced back in the second quarter, expanding 5.4% year-on-year and contrasting the 2.2% contraction logged in the first quarter.
September 9, 2021
At its 9 September meeting, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) raised its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 8.50%, as expected by some market analysts after the Bank implied at its previous meeting that it would raise rates again before year-end.
September 9, 2021
Consumer prices fell 0.22% from the previous month in August, contrasting July's 0.09% rise.
August 30, 2021
Industrial output grew 0.2% compared to the same month of the previous year in July, moderating from June's 1.1% increase.