Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

Sequential data hints at a fragile recovery in Q3, after the Covid-19 outbreak and associated lockdown measures pummeled activity in Q2. Industrial output continued to shrink in September, although at a softer pace than in August thanks to less downbeat manufacturing and energy production. More positively, retail sales growth was robust in Q3, which, coupled with steadily firming, albeit still weak, consumer sentiment, bodes well for household spending. That said, the persistent rise in Covid-19 cases, which picked up notably in October, prompted the government to extend the adaptive quarantine system until year-end—raising the possibility of tightening restrictions and thus potentially hampering the recovery in Q4. In politics, the 25 October local elections dealt a setback to President Zelensky given the weak results for his party and declining approval ratings.

Ukraine Economic Growth

A sharp economic downturn is expected this year due to the Covid-19 blow. Activity is poised to bounce back solidly next year, however, as both external and domestic demand gradually revive, with fiscal and monetary stimulus lending further support. The prolongation of the health crisis, loss of reform momentum and weaknesses in the banking system cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 4.2% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2022, they see GDP expanding 3.6%.

Ukraine Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)42.642.442.242.041.9
GDP per capita (USD)2,0552,1752,6863,1203,678
GDP (USD bn)87.592.3113131154
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-9.82.42.53.43.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)19.82.79.59.311.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.220.416.116.614.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-12.34.01.13.0-0.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-21.04.48.65.611.6
Unemployment Rate9.19.39.58.88.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.6-2.3-1.4-2.1-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)79.180.971.860.950.3
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)43.312.413.79.84.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)48.514.914.511.07.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)22.0014.0014.5018.0013.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-37.810.218.877.5-8.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)24.0327.1028.1627.7123.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21.9525.5626.6027.1925.81
Current Account (% of GDP)1.8-1.5-2.2-3.3-0.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.6-1.3-2.4-4.4-1.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.5-6.9-9.7-12.7-14.3
Exports (USD billion)35.433.639.743.346.1
Imports (USD billion)38.940.549.456.160.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-29.9-5.318.39.26.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-32.64.221.913.67.8
International Reserves (USD)13.315.518.820.825.3
External Debt (% of GDP)13512210187.779.2

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Ukraine Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate23.700.30 %Jan 01

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