Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

April 2, 2019

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a comedian and political novice, came out on top in the first round of Ukraine’s presidential election on 31 March, securing 30.3% of the votes. In the second-round run-off on 21 April, Zelenskiy will face the incumbent President Petro Poroshenko, who scrambled 16.0% of the votes, beating opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko to claim the second place. Regardless of the lingering political uncertainty, robust growth momentum appears to have carried over into this year, on the heels of a strong domestic demand-led expansion in Q4 2018. Retail sales accelerated in January and February amid moderating inflationary pressures, a resilient hryvnia and improving consumer confidence. On the external front, metrics were also upbeat: Goods exports rose at a healthy clip in January on vigorous demand from the EU, China and the U.S.

Ukraine Economic Growth

Growth is seen losing traction this year, as tight monetary and fiscal policies weigh on activity growth and global demand outlook darkens. Nevertheless, the overall expansion should remain healthy, spearheaded by solid private consumption amid tightening labor market conditions and rising real incomes. Political uncertainty remains the key risk to the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth of 2.7% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.

Ukraine Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)45.242.842.642.442.3
GDP per capita (USD)3,9743,0582,0552,1752,678
GDP (USD bn)18013187.592.3113
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.0-6.6-9.82.42.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.9-8.3-20.72.17.8
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.4-24.0-9.220.418.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.3-10.1-13.02.80.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.6-9.8-21.04.48.6
Unemployment Rate7.29.39.19.49.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.3-4.5-1.6-2.3-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.969.479.180.971.8
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.524.943.312.413.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.312.148.514.914.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.5014.0022.0014.0014.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-8.628.8-37.810.218.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.2415.8224.0327.1028.16
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.1512.0221.9525.5626.60
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.2-3.51.8-1.5-1.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-16.5-4.61.6-1.3-2.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-22.1-7.1-3.5-6.8-9.4
Exports (USD billion)59.150.635.433.639.7
Imports (USD billion)81.257.738.940.449.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-8.3-14.5-29.9-5.218.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-29.0-32.63.821.5
International Reserves (USD)20.47.513.315.518.8
External Debt (% of GDP)79.096.4136124103

Sample Report

5 years of Ukraine economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Ukraine Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate27.080.30 %Apr 03
Stock Market5640.21 %Apr 03

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Ukraine Economic News

Search form