Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

The war has now surpassed the grim milestone of 100 days. In recent weeks, fighting has shifted towards the east and south of Ukraine, and Russia has made significant territorial gains in the Donbas region. Moreover, it has largely succeeded in cutting Ukraine off from the sea, after capturing Mariupol to the east, Kherson to the west and instituting a naval blockade in the Black Sea. This is causing severe disruptions to wheat supplies worldwide. Ukraine was the world’s fifth biggest exporter prior to the conflict, which led exports to collapse year on year in both March and April. To make matters worse, bilateral peace talks in Turkey have largely stalled and no agreement is yet in sight. Nonetheless, international aid for the war effort has remained robust: The U.S. signed a new aid package worth about EUR 37 billion, while the EU pledged a further EUR 500 million in military aid.

Ukraine Economic Growth

Due to the unpredictable and fast-moving nature of war, the exact economic repercussions stemming from the ongoing conflict are highly uncertain. FocusEconomics panelists have massively downgraded GDP growth this year, with some projecting an up to 55% contraction. Tumbling exports, widespread infrastructure damage and marked population loss will weigh on the economy. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 36.8% in 2022, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2023, the panel sees GDP expanding 12.5%.

Ukraine Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)42.642.442.242.041.9
GDP per capita (USD)2,0552,1752,6863,1203,678
GDP (USD bn)87.592.3113131154
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-9.82.42.53.43.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)19.82.79.59.311.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.220.416.116.614.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-12.34.01.13.0-0.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-21.04.48.65.611.6
Unemployment Rate9.19.39.58.88.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.6-2.3-1.4-2.1-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)79.180.971.860.950.3
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)43.312.413.79.84.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)48.514.914.511.07.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)22.0014.0014.5018.0013.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-37.810.218.877.5-8.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)24.0327.1028.1627.7123.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21.9525.5626.6027.1925.81
Current Account (% of GDP)1.8-1.5-2.2-3.3-0.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.6-1.3-2.4-4.4-1.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.5-6.9-9.7-12.7-14.3
Exports (USD billion)35.433.639.743.346.1
Imports (USD billion)38.940.549.456.160.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-29.9-5.318.39.26.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-32.64.221.913.67.8
International Reserves (USD)13.315.518.820.825.3
External Debt (% of GDP)13512210187.779.2

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Ukraine Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate23.700.30 %Jan 01

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