Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

January 14, 2020

The economy grew at a solid pace in the third quarter of last year, despite decelerating from the second quarter’s over two-year high expansion. Softer private consumption was largely behind the slowdown, although it remained healthy nonetheless. On the upside, government consumption rebounded, while fixed investment growth jumped on upbeat construction activity and cheaper financing conditions. Moreover, the external sector buoyed the overall expansion amid soaring exports. Turning to the fourth quarter, momentum seemingly waned as industrial production plummeted in October–November. Meanwhile, the IMF announced a new three-year USD 5.5 billion arrangement to the country, which should cement financial stability this year. Furthermore, royalties from a new five-year gas transit contract with Russia, signed on 30 December, should provide additional support to the government’s accounts ahead.

Ukraine Economic Growth

Growth is seen broadly steady this year, supported by healthy fixed investment amid efforts to attract FDI and improve the business climate. Moreover, household spending should remain firm thanks to a tightening labor market and receding inflation. Downside risks stem from backtracking or slow implementation of reforms, which could bruise confidence. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth of 3.4% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, growth is seen edging up to 3.5%.

Ukraine Economy Data

Population (million)45.242.842.642.442.2
GDP per capita (USD)3,9743,0582,0552,1752,686
GDP (USD bn)18013187.592.3113
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.0-6.6-
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.9-8.3-
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.4-24.0-9.220.416.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-4.3-10.1-
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.6-9.8-
Unemployment Rate7.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.3-4.5-1.6-2.3-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)39.969.479.180.971.8
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.524.943.312.413.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.312.148.514.914.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.5014.0022.0014.0014.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-8.628.8-37.810.218.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)8.2415.8224.0327.1028.16
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.1512.0221.9525.5626.60
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.2-3.51.8-1.5-2.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-16.5-4.61.6-1.3-2.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-22.1-7.1-3.5-6.9-9.7
Exports (USD billion)59.150.635.433.639.7
Imports (USD billion)81.257.738.940.549.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-8.3-14.5-29.9-5.318.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-29.0-
International Reserves (USD)20.47.513.315.518.8
External Debt (% of GDP)79.095.6135122102

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Ukraine Facts

Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate23.700.30 %Jan 01

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