Ukraine Economic Outlook
September 4, 2018The economy continued to gain traction in the second quarter, following a solid outturn at the beginning of the year. Domestic demand seemingly remained at the forefront of the expansion, as easing inflationary pressures, coupled with a tightening labor market and rising consumer lending, likely bolstered household consumption growth in the quarter. In addition, investment activity remained buoyant in Q2, despite losing some momentum from Q1, as investment in the mining and quarrying, and manufacturing sectors continued to soar at a double-digit pace. Meanwhile, external sector dynamics appear to have improved slightly from the previous quarter: Exports accelerated in Q2 on the back of solid demand from EU countries, led by Italy and Poland, outpacing imports for the first time in over a year. On a less positive note, unfavorable weather conditions have led to a worse-than-expected crop harvest this year, which clouds the exports outlook and is likely to lead to higher food prices domestically.
Ukraine Economic GrowthRobust domestic demand should buttress economic momentum this year, on the back of solid private consumption and investment activity growth. However, import growth is seen outpacing that of exports in the second half of the year, mostly on solid domestic demand and higher energy imports, which will likely take a bite out of overall GDP growth. Downside risks remain significant, largely stemming from mounting political tensions domestically and geopolitical uncertainties. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP rising 3.2% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2019.
Ukraine Economy Data
5 years of Ukraine economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
|Exchange Rate||28.05||0.30 %||Sep 20|
|Stock Market||539||0.21 %||Sep 20|
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Ukraine Economic News
August 31, 2018
The Ukrainian hryvnia weakened in August as demand for foreign currency in the interbank foreign exchange market exceeded supply.
August 27, 2018
According to data released by the Statistical Institute, industrial production increased 2.9% year-on-year in July, up from 2.2% in June.
August 14, 2018
According to preliminary data released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on 14 August, the Ukrainian economy shifted into a higher gear in the second quarter.
August 10, 2018
Consumer prices fell 0.7% month-on-month in July, following a flat reading in June.
July 27, 2018
According to data released by the Statistical Institute, industrial output rose 2.2% in annual terms in June, decelerating from May’s 2.5% increase.