Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

A second reading revealed that GDP expanded at a quicker pace than initially estimated in Q2. The upturn was spearheaded by a marked acceleration in household consumption and a solid rebound in capital spending. However, the external sector subtracted from the overall result as import growth vastly outpaced a softer contraction in exports. Turning to Q3, growth should have remained robust, but likely softened on a fading base effect. Both industrial output and retail sales expanded at healthy—albeit more modest—paces in July–August. Meanwhile, less upbeat consumer confidence in July and August, coupled with rising price pressures in the same period will have likely capped consumer spending. In other news, on 22 September President Zelensky survived an assassination attempt amid a debate over a law aimed at tackling oligarch influence on the country’s politics—which was ultimately approved on 23 September.

Ukraine Economic Growth

The economy is expected to rebound in 2021 as a steady vaccine rollout bolsters private and capital spending. Next year, fixed investment should drive GDP to grow at a similar pace. That said, heightened geopolitical tensions with Russia and Belarus, as well as potential losses due to the Nord Stream pipeline, dampen the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 3.8% in 2021. For 2022, the panel also sees GDP increasing 3.8%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Ukraine Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)42.642.442.242.041.9
GDP per capita (USD)2,0552,1752,6863,1203,678
GDP (USD bn)87.592.3113131154
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-9.82.42.53.43.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)19.82.79.59.311.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.220.416.116.614.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-12.34.01.13.0-0.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-21.04.48.65.611.6
Unemployment Rate9.19.39.58.88.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.6-2.3-1.4-2.1-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)79.180.971.860.950.3
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)43.312.413.79.84.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)48.514.914.511.07.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)22.0014.0014.5018.0013.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-37.810.218.877.5-8.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)24.0327.1028.1627.7123.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21.9525.5626.6027.1925.81
Current Account (% of GDP)1.8-1.5-2.2-3.3-0.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.6-1.3-2.4-4.4-1.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.5-6.9-9.7-12.7-14.3
Exports (USD billion)35.433.639.743.346.1
Imports (USD billion)38.940.549.456.160.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-29.9-5.318.39.26.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-32.64.221.913.67.8
International Reserves (USD)13.315.518.820.825.3
External Debt (% of GDP)13512210187.779.2

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Ukraine Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate23.700.30 %Jan 01

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