Ukraine Economic Outlook
May 12, 2020GDP likely contracted in the first quarter on restrictions to curtail the spread of Covid-19, after economic activity slowed sharply in the last quarter of 2019. In March, the sharpest fall in industrial output since the end of the 2014–2015 economic crisis evidences the toll the pandemic is taking. Capital flight seems to have undercut fixed investment, while downbeat consumer sentiment hints at weakening household consumption. Meanwhile, the fall in activity likely steepened at the outset of Q2 on prolonged restrictions on travel and non-essential trade. In politics, on 7 May, Mikheil Saakashvili was put in charge of country reforms and negotiations with the IMF. He is expected to close a deal with the Fund by the end of Q2 amid severe funding pressures, which are limiting the fiscal response to the health crisis.
Ukraine Economic GrowthThe economy is set to shrink this year as Covid-19 takes its toll. A higher unemployment rate and social distancing measures will weigh on private consumption, while lingering uncertainties should restrain capital inflows. Securing a new IMF deal remains key to uphold investors’ confidence in the country and to comply with hefty debt repayments due this year. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP falling 4.5% in 2020, which is down 1.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, they see it expanding 4.2%.
Ukraine Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
|Exchange Rate||23.70||0.30 %||Jan 01|
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Ukraine Economic News
June 26, 2020
Industrial production fell 12.2% over the same month last year in May, after a 16.2% drop in April, which had marked the worst result since May 2015.
June 19, 2020
The economy swung to contraction in the first quarter, with GDP decreasing 1.3% year-on-year (Q4 2019: +1.5% year-on-year).
June 11, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.30% month-on-month in May, down from 0.80% in April.
June 11, 2020
At its 11 June monetary policy meeting, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to slash the key policy rate to 6.00% from 8.00%, marking the ninth consecutive cut.
June 4, 2020
On 21 May, the IMF announced a staff-level agreement for an 18-month USD 5.0 billion loan to Ukraine under a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) program.