Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

January 11, 2022

The economy expanded at a softer rate in the third quarter amid a broad-based slowdown: Growth in private consumption, fixed investment and exports moderated, while government spending swung into contraction. Turning to Q4, available data paints an uncertain picture for the economy: Retail sales increased at a softer pace in October–November compared to Q3, while consumer confidence slid sequentially in the same period, hinting at weaker household spending. Similarly, industrial production growth lost steam in annual terms in October–November compared to Q3. Meanwhile, tensions with Russia have continued to escalate after around 100,000 Russian troops amassed near the border in early December, with the potential threat of conflict continuing to loom. Diplomatic talks between Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. are scheduled for 9–10 January in Geneva.

Ukraine Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to rise slightly in 2022 following last year’s projected rebound. A steady vaccine rollout should boost domestic demand, while incoming funds from the IMF and the EU should further bolster activity. Nevertheless, heightened tensions with neighboring Russia and the looming threat of military conflict pose serious risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 3.7% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2023, the panel sees GDP increasing 3.5%.

Ukraine Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)42.642.442.242.041.9
GDP per capita (USD)2,0552,1752,6863,1203,678
GDP (USD bn)87.592.3113131154
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-9.82.42.53.43.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)19.82.79.59.311.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.220.416.116.614.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-12.34.01.13.0-0.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-21.04.48.65.611.6
Unemployment Rate9.19.39.58.88.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.6-2.3-1.4-2.1-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)79.180.971.860.950.3
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)43.312.413.79.84.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)48.514.914.511.07.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)22.0014.0014.5018.0013.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-37.810.218.877.5-8.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)24.0327.1028.1627.7123.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21.9525.5626.6027.1925.81
Current Account (% of GDP)1.8-1.5-2.2-3.3-0.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.6-1.3-2.4-4.4-1.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.5-6.9-9.7-12.7-14.3
Exports (USD billion)35.433.639.743.346.1
Imports (USD billion)38.940.549.456.160.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-29.9-5.318.39.26.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-32.64.221.913.67.8
International Reserves (USD)13.315.518.820.825.3
External Debt (% of GDP)13512210187.779.2

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Ukraine Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate23.700.30 %Jan 01

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