Ukraine Economic Outlook
July 30, 2019Incoming data suggests that the economy likely gained modest ground in recent months, after growth slid to a near two-year low in the first quarter. Retail sales growth gained steam throughout Q2 bolstered by rising wages, while favorable weather contributed to an ample grain harvest at the start of Q3. That said, signs of weakness continue to linger in the industrial sector, where production contracted notably in June. In the political arena, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People party came out on top in the 21 July parliamentary election, clinching 43% of the vote and an absolute majority in parliament. The victory gives Zelensky the muscle to push through sweeping reforms and legislation, although a degree of uncertainty over future policy still persists given Zelensky and his party’s newcomer statuses and lack of political experience.
Ukraine Economic GrowthUkraine’s prospects were raised a notch this month as a large crop yield shores up the export outlook, while monetary policy loosening and rising wages support the domestic economy. Upside risks include the government delivering reforms faster than expected which could help boost sentiment, while the contrary could result in stalled IMF negotiations and dampen confidence. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth of 2.8% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.
Ukraine Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
|Exchange Rate||25.12||0.30 %||Jul 31|
|Stock Market||541||0.21 %||Jul 31|
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Ukraine Economic News
July 26, 2019
New President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People party came away with a resounding victory in the 21 July snap elections, winning 43% of the vote and 254 out of 424 seats in the Rada.
July 19, 2019
Industrial production contracted 2.3% over the same month last year in June, which contrasted May’s 1.6% expansion and marked a four-month low.
July 18, 2019
At its 18 July meeting, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to chop the key policy rate to 17.00%, from 17.50%.
July 11, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.5% month-on-month in June, contrasting May’s 0.7% rise.
July 1, 2019
Ukrainians will head to the polls for parliamentary elections on 21 July, in an early vote brought forward by new President and political novice Volodymyr Zelensky.