Ukraine Economic Forecast

Ukraine Economic Outlook

May 12, 2020

GDP likely contracted in the first quarter on restrictions to curtail the spread of Covid-19, after economic activity slowed sharply in the last quarter of 2019. In March, the sharpest fall in industrial output since the end of the 2014–2015 economic crisis evidences the toll the pandemic is taking. Capital flight seems to have undercut fixed investment, while downbeat consumer sentiment hints at weakening household consumption. Meanwhile, the fall in activity likely steepened at the outset of Q2 on prolonged restrictions on travel and non-essential trade. In politics, on 7 May, Mikheil Saakashvili was put in charge of country reforms and negotiations with the IMF. He is expected to close a deal with the Fund by the end of Q2 amid severe funding pressures, which are limiting the fiscal response to the health crisis.

Ukraine Economic Growth

The economy is set to shrink this year as Covid-19 takes its toll. A higher unemployment rate and social distancing measures will weigh on private consumption, while lingering uncertainties should restrain capital inflows. Securing a new IMF deal remains key to uphold investors’ confidence in the country and to comply with hefty debt repayments due this year. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP falling 4.5% in 2020, which is down 1.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, they see it expanding 4.2%.

Ukraine Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)42.642.442.242.041.9
GDP per capita (USD)2,0552,1752,6863,1203,678
GDP (USD bn)87.592.3113131154
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-9.82.42.53.43.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)19.82.79.59.311.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.220.416.116.614.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-12.34.01.13.0-0.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-21.04.48.65.611.6
Unemployment Rate9.19.39.58.88.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.6-2.3-1.4-2.1-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)79.180.971.860.950.3
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)43.312.413.79.84.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)48.514.914.511.07.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)22.0014.0014.5018.0013.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-37.810.218.877.5-8.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)24.0327.1028.1627.7123.70
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21.9525.5626.6027.1925.81
Current Account (% of GDP)1.8-1.5-2.2-3.3-0.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.6-1.3-2.4-4.4-1.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.5-6.9-9.7-12.7-14.3
Exports (USD billion)35.433.639.743.346.1
Imports (USD billion)38.940.549.456.160.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-29.9-5.318.39.26.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-32.64.221.913.67.8
International Reserves (USD)13.315.518.820.825.3
External Debt (% of GDP)13512210187.779.2

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Value Change Date
Bond Yield19.000.0 %Jul 27
Exchange Rate23.700.30 %Jan 01

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