Ukraine Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022The war has now surpassed the grim milestone of 100 days. In recent weeks, fighting has shifted towards the east and south of Ukraine, and Russia has made significant territorial gains in the Donbas region. Moreover, it has largely succeeded in cutting Ukraine off from the sea, after capturing Mariupol to the east, Kherson to the west and instituting a naval blockade in the Black Sea. This is causing severe disruptions to wheat supplies worldwide. Ukraine was the world’s fifth biggest exporter prior to the conflict, which led exports to collapse year on year in both March and April. To make matters worse, bilateral peace talks in Turkey have largely stalled and no agreement is yet in sight. Nonetheless, international aid for the war effort has remained robust: The U.S. signed a new aid package worth about EUR 37 billion, while the EU pledged a further EUR 500 million in military aid.
Ukraine Economic GrowthDue to the unpredictable and fast-moving nature of war, the exact economic repercussions stemming from the ongoing conflict are highly uncertain. FocusEconomics panelists have massively downgraded GDP growth this year, with some projecting an up to 55% contraction. Tumbling exports, widespread infrastructure damage and marked population loss will weigh on the economy. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 36.8% in 2022, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2023, the panel sees GDP expanding 12.5%.
Ukraine Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
|Exchange Rate||23.70||0.30 %||Jan 01|
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Ukraine Economic News
June 2, 2022
At a surprise meeting on 2 June, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) raised its key policy rate by 1,500 basis points to 25.00% from 10.00%.
May 11, 2022
Consumer prices increased 3.1% over the previous month in April, slowing down from the 4.5% increase recorded in March.
April 13, 2022
Consumer prices rose 4.50% in March over the previous month, accelerating from February's 1.59% increase.
April 6, 2022
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is now well into its sixth week and the military landscape has evolved significantly.
March 11, 2022
A second national accounts release confirmed that GDP growth improved to 6.6% year on year in the fourth quarter, from 2.9% in the third quarter.