Ukraine Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022
The war has now surpassed the grim milestone of 100 days. In recent weeks, fighting has shifted towards the east and south of Ukraine, and Russia has made significant territorial gains in the Donbas region. Moreover, it has largely succeeded in cutting Ukraine off from the sea, after capturing Mariupol to the east, Kherson to the west and instituting a naval blockade in the Black Sea. This is causing severe disruptions to wheat supplies worldwide. Ukraine was the world’s fifth biggest exporter prior to the conflict, which led exports to collapse year on year in both March and April. To make matters worse, bilateral peace talks in Turkey have largely stalled and no agreement is yet in sight. Nonetheless, international aid for the war effort has remained robust: The U.S. signed a new aid package worth about EUR 37 billion, while the EU pledged a further EUR 500 million in military aid.Ukraine Economic Growth
Due to the unpredictable and fast-moving nature of war, the exact economic repercussions stemming from the ongoing conflict are highly uncertain. FocusEconomics panelists have massively downgraded GDP growth this year, with some projecting an up to 55% contraction. Tumbling exports, widespread infrastructure damage and marked population loss will weigh on the economy. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 36.8% in 2022, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2023, the panel sees GDP expanding 12.5%.Ukraine Economy Data
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Ukraine Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 19.00 | 0.0 % | Jul 27 |
| Exchange Rate | 23.70 | 0.30 % | Jan 01 |
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Ukraine Economic News
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Ukraine: GDP contracts at record pace in Q2 amid Russian invasion
September 8, 2022
According to a preliminary estimate, economic growth nosedived in Q2, contracting 37.2% in annual terms (Q1: -15.2% yoy).
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Ukraine: NBU leaves key rate unchanged at September meeting
September 7, 2022
At its meeting on 8 September, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) unanimously voted to maintain its policy rate at 25.00%, after the largest rate hike in 24 years at its June meeting. The board members’ decision to leave the main rate unchanged was chiefly due to a lower-than-expected inflation figure in July.
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Ukraine: Inflation hits an over six year-high July
August 11, 2022
Consumer prices rose 0.70% in July over the previous month, slowing down from the 3.11% increase logged in June.
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Ukraine: NBU holds steady at its July meeting
July 21, 2022
At its meeting on 21 July, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to maintain its policy rate at 25.00%—the highest since March 2016—after the largest rate hike in 24 years at its June meeting. The decision not to hike further was mainly driven by the Bank’s assessment that the 1,500 basis-point hike taken at its previous meeting was enough to improve the attractiveness of the hryvnia, guarantee healthy levels of international reserves and macroeconomic stability.
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Ukraine: Inflation soars to over five-year high in June
July 11, 2022
Consumer prices rose 3.11% in June over the previous month, accelerating from May's 2.68% rise.
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