Ukraine Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020Sequential data hints at a fragile recovery in Q3, after the Covid-19 outbreak and associated lockdown measures pummeled activity in Q2. Industrial output continued to shrink in September, although at a softer pace than in August thanks to less downbeat manufacturing and energy production. More positively, retail sales growth was robust in Q3, which, coupled with steadily firming, albeit still weak, consumer sentiment, bodes well for household spending. That said, the persistent rise in Covid-19 cases, which picked up notably in October, prompted the government to extend the adaptive quarantine system until year-end—raising the possibility of tightening restrictions and thus potentially hampering the recovery in Q4. In politics, the 25 October local elections dealt a setback to President Zelensky given the weak results for his party and declining approval ratings.
Ukraine Economic GrowthA sharp economic downturn is expected this year due to the Covid-19 blow. Activity is poised to bounce back solidly next year, however, as both external and domestic demand gradually revive, with fiscal and monetary stimulus lending further support. The prolongation of the health crisis, loss of reform momentum and weaknesses in the banking system cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 4.2% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2022, they see GDP expanding 3.6%.
Ukraine Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
|Exchange Rate||23.70||0.30 %||Jan 01|
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Ukraine Economic News
November 23, 2020
Industrial production declined 5.0% over the same month last year in October, sharper than September’s 4.4% slump and marking 13 consecutive months of falling output.
November 9, 2020
Consumer prices rose 1.00% over the previous month in October, a shaper increase than September’s 0.49% climb.
October 22, 2020
Industrial production tumbled 4.4% over the same month last year in September, softer than August’s 5.3% decline and marking a full year of monthly drops.
October 22, 2020
At its 22 October meeting, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged at its all-time low of 6.00%, marking the third consecutive hold and coming in line with market expectations.
October 12, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.49% in September over the previous month, contrasting August’s 0.21% drop.