Ukraine Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022
The war has now surpassed the grim milestone of 100 days. In recent weeks, fighting has shifted towards the east and south of Ukraine, and Russia has made significant territorial gains in the Donbas region. Moreover, it has largely succeeded in cutting Ukraine off from the sea, after capturing Mariupol to the east, Kherson to the west and instituting a naval blockade in the Black Sea. This is causing severe disruptions to wheat supplies worldwide. Ukraine was the world’s fifth biggest exporter prior to the conflict, which led exports to collapse year on year in both March and April. To make matters worse, bilateral peace talks in Turkey have largely stalled and no agreement is yet in sight. Nonetheless, international aid for the war effort has remained robust: The U.S. signed a new aid package worth about EUR 37 billion, while the EU pledged a further EUR 500 million in military aid.Ukraine Economic Growth
Due to the unpredictable and fast-moving nature of war, the exact economic repercussions stemming from the ongoing conflict are highly uncertain. FocusEconomics panelists have massively downgraded GDP growth this year, with some projecting an up to 55% contraction. Tumbling exports, widespread infrastructure damage and marked population loss will weigh on the economy. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 36.8% in 2022, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2023, the panel sees GDP expanding 12.5%.Ukraine Economy Data
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Ukraine Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 19.00 | 0.0 % | Jul 27 |
| Exchange Rate | 23.70 | 0.30 % | Jan 01 |
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Ukraine Economic News
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Ukraine: War-hit economy shrinks at a milder pace in Q3
January 9, 2023
According to a preliminary reading, GDP slid at a slower rate of 30.8% year on year in the third quarter, an improvement from the 37.2% contraction tallied in the second quarter. Although a comprehensive sector-by-sector breakdown has not yet been released, the downturn will likely have been broad-based as a direct consequence of the full-scale invasion by Russia.
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Ukraine: Inflation moderates in November
December 14, 2022
Inflation came in at 26.5% in November, which was marginally down from October’s 26.6%.
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Ukraine: NBU leaves key rate unchanged at December meeting, raises reserve requirement ratios
December 8, 2022
At its meeting on 8 December, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) unanimously voted to maintain its policy rate at 25.00%, after delivering the largest rate hike in 24 years at its June meeting.
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Ukraine: Inflation comes in at highest level since February 2016 in October
November 12, 2022
Inflation rose to 26.6% in October, above September’s 24.6%.
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Ukraine: Inflation increases in September
October 12, 2022
Inflation rose to 24.6% in September, above August’s 23.8%.
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