Ukraine Economic Outlook
January 11, 2022The economy expanded at a softer rate in the third quarter amid a broad-based slowdown: Growth in private consumption, fixed investment and exports moderated, while government spending swung into contraction. Turning to Q4, available data paints an uncertain picture for the economy: Retail sales increased at a softer pace in October–November compared to Q3, while consumer confidence slid sequentially in the same period, hinting at weaker household spending. Similarly, industrial production growth lost steam in annual terms in October–November compared to Q3. Meanwhile, tensions with Russia have continued to escalate after around 100,000 Russian troops amassed near the border in early December, with the potential threat of conflict continuing to loom. Diplomatic talks between Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. are scheduled for 9–10 January in Geneva.
Ukraine Economic GrowthEconomic growth is expected to rise slightly in 2022 following last year’s projected rebound. A steady vaccine rollout should boost domestic demand, while incoming funds from the IMF and the EU should further bolster activity. Nevertheless, heightened tensions with neighboring Russia and the looming threat of military conflict pose serious risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 3.7% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2023, the panel sees GDP increasing 3.5%.
Ukraine Economy Data
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Ukraine Economic News
December 22, 2021
Industrial production grew 1.3% year-on-year in November (October: +1.4 yoy).
December 21, 2021
A second national accounts release confirmed that economic growth softened in the third quarter, with GDP expanding 2.7% year-on-year (Q2: +5.7% yoy).
December 9, 2021
Consumer prices fell 0.54% over the previous month in November, following the 0.09% fall seen in October.
December 9, 2021
At its last meeting of 2021 on 8 December, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) raised its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 9.00%, despite hinting that it would hold rates until at least Q3 2022 at its previous meeting.
November 22, 2021
Industrial output grew 1.4% year-on-year in October, matching September’s result.