Ukraine Economic Outlook
January 14, 2020The economy grew at a solid pace in the third quarter of last year, despite decelerating from the second quarter’s over two-year high expansion. Softer private consumption was largely behind the slowdown, although it remained healthy nonetheless. On the upside, government consumption rebounded, while fixed investment growth jumped on upbeat construction activity and cheaper financing conditions. Moreover, the external sector buoyed the overall expansion amid soaring exports. Turning to the fourth quarter, momentum seemingly waned as industrial production plummeted in October–November. Meanwhile, the IMF announced a new three-year USD 5.5 billion arrangement to the country, which should cement financial stability this year. Furthermore, royalties from a new five-year gas transit contract with Russia, signed on 30 December, should provide additional support to the government’s accounts ahead.
Ukraine Economic GrowthGrowth is seen broadly steady this year, supported by healthy fixed investment amid efforts to attract FDI and improve the business climate. Moreover, household spending should remain firm thanks to a tightening labor market and receding inflation. Downside risks stem from backtracking or slow implementation of reforms, which could bruise confidence. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth of 3.4% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, growth is seen edging up to 3.5%.
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Ukraine Economic News
January 13, 2020
On 7 December, Ukraine and the IMF announced a three-year USD 5.5 billion arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), which, if approved by the lender’s Executive Board, would represent the third support package by the Fund since the 2014 recession.
January 9, 2020
Consumer prices decreased 0.2% month-on-month in December, contrasting November’s 0.1% increase.
December 27, 2019
Industrial production plunged 7.5% over the same month last year in November, which marked the worst reading since July 2015.
December 19, 2019
GDP growth moderated to 4.1% year-on-year in the third quarter, according to a second estimate by Ukraine’s Statistical Institute (previously reported: +4.2% year-on-year).
December 12, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.1% month-on-month in November, easing from October’s 0.7% increase.