Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

June 21, 2022

Economic growth cooled in the first quarter of the year due to a further deterioration in the key oil sector. This more than offset a strong performance in the services sector leading non-oil sector activity to firm. Second-quarter data paints a mixed picture. Private-sector operating conditions improved at a fractionally slower pace in April–May, while credit growth was also broadly stable in April. That said, inflation rose markedly in the same month. A pickup in core inflation highlights that price pressures are farther-reaching than energy and food price increases. Meanwhile, sectarian violence spread to the country’s relatively safe south-western region. Social tensions and violence could increase going forward, as religious and regional divides are heightening the stakes of the February 2023 presidential elections.

Nigeria Economic Growth

The economy will grow at a softer pace this year. Inflation will remain elevated, eating into consumers’ pockets. Power supply issues will further jeopardize activity. Moreover, social rifts and violence ahead of the February 2023 elections could undermine momentum. The government’s investment push should support activity, however. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth coming in at 3.0% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2023.

Nigeria Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)181186191196201
GDP per capita (USD)2,7442,2141,9572,1832,363
GDP (USD bn)497412374428475
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.8-1.60.81.92.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.3-4.8-3.09.78.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-3.4-9.40.9-4.87.5
Unemployment Rate4.37.18.48.28.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.2-4.0-5.4-4.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)20.323.425.327.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)5.917.82.312.16.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.618.615.411.412.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.015.716.512.111.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0014.0014.0014.0013.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)196.5304.5305.5306.5307.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)192.6253.2305.3305.6306.6
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.10.72.80.9-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-15.42.710.43.9-17.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.4-0.513.120.52.9
Exports (USD billion)45.934.745.861.265.0
Imports (USD billion)52.335.232.740.862.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-44.4-24.432.033.66.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.0-32.7-7.324.752.4
International Reserves (USD)29.125.838.843.138.6
External Debt (% of GDP)2.22.85.15.95.8

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Nigeria Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield11.100.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate306.53.08 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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