Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

March 19, 2019

Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari comfortably beat his main rival, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, in the 23 February presidential election, securing 55.6% of the votes compared to Abubakar’s 41.2%. Given that Abubakar’s market-oriented reform agenda could have triggered a major shift in economic policy, particularly for the management of the exchange rate regime and the all-important oil industry, those risks have largely dissipated with Buhari’s reelection and the status-quo to policymaking is thus set to remain going forward. Meanwhile, available data points to a slight loss of momentum at the start of the year, after economic growth hit an over three-year high in the final quarter of 2018. The PMI fell for the third month in a row in February which, coupled with a less upbeat outlook among firms in the same month, hint at reduced private sector dynamism in Q1 2019.

Nigeria Economic Growth

The economy is expected to gain steam this year on the back of stronger household consumption and fixed investment growth. Although healthy oil production will continue to support growth, lower crude prices represent a key downside risk to the outlook, as it can both dent vital foreign exchange earnings and place public finances under more strain. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP increasing 2.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2.8% in 2020.

Nigeria Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)169174179184189
GDP per capita (USD)3,0823,3122,7662,2061,995
GDP (USD bn)522576494405376
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.56.22.8-1.60.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)21.20.5-0.4-3.7-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.913.40.6-6.8-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.16.0-3.4-9.4-3.6
Unemployment Rate3.74.64.37.17.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.4-0.9-1.6-2.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.913.116.019.623.4
Money (annual variation in %)1.320.65.817.81.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.08.09.618.615.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.58.19.015.716.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0013.0011.0014.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)155.2167.5196.5304.5305.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)155.3156.5192.6253.2305.3
Current Account (% of GDP)3.70.2-3.10.72.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)19.20.9-15.42.710.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)43.821.0-6.4-0.513.1
Exports (USD billion)95.182.645.934.745.8
Imports (USD billion)51.461.652.335.232.7
Exports (annual variation in %)0.8-13.2-44.4-24.432.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.819.9-15.0-32.7-7.3
International Reserves (USD)43.634.529.125.838.8
External Debt (% of GDP)1.71.72.22.85.0

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Nigeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield14.470.0 %Mar 20
Exchange Rate306.43.08 %Mar 20
Stock Market1.10.0 %Mar 19

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