Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

January 25, 2022

Momentum seemingly picked up in the fourth quarter of last year, with operating conditions improving at a faster rate throughout the period: The PMI reached a two-year high in December on the back of robust growth in output and new orders. Moreover, private-sector credit grew at a markedly quicker pace in October–November, suggesting strengthening business activity. Furthermore, inflation cooled in the quarter overall, which should have supported household spending. In other news, hundreds of people were killed in a wave of attacks by armed bandits in the north-west of the country in early January, highlighting ongoing security problems. Meanwhile, the Electoral Act is likely to be amended ahead of the 2023 general elections to allow for electronic voting and result transmission, which should reduce voting fraud and suggests a smooth transition of power should the ruling APC party lose.

Nigeria Economic Growth

Economic growth should remain robust this year amid the fading impact of the pandemic and the new oil bill. The government’s infrastructure push should further buoy activity through investment. However, elevated inflation, security problems, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China—weighing on exports—and low vaccination rates pose risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth coming in at 2.8% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2023.

Nigeria Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)181186191196201
GDP per capita (USD)2,7442,2141,9572,1832,363
GDP (USD bn)497412374428475
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.8-
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.3-4.8-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-3.4-9.40.9-4.87.5
Unemployment Rate4.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.2-4.0-5.4-4.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)20.323.425.327.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)5.917.82.312.16.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.618.615.411.412.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.015.716.512.111.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD)196.5304.5305.5306.5307.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0014.0014.0014.0013.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)192.6253.2305.3305.6306.6
Current Account (% of GDP)-
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-15.42.710.43.9-17.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.4-0.513.120.52.9
Exports (USD billion)45.934.745.861.265.0
Imports (USD billion)52.335.232.740.862.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-44.4-24.432.033.66.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.0-32.7-7.324.752.4
International Reserves (USD)29.125.838.843.138.6
External Debt (% of GDP)

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Nigeria Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield11.100.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate306.53.08 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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