Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

September 21, 2021

The economic recovery gained a firmer foothold in the second quarter, as growth accelerated notably. The upturn came chiefly on the back of the non-oil sector, with the services sector being the main driver amid the partial easing of social distancing measures. The oil sector, meanwhile, remained downbeat as activity fell at a more pronounced pace. Lower output was the main culprit as prices for the black gold rose. Turning to Q3, conditions appear to have deteriorated somewhat. Although the PMI rose in July, the index fell to a six-month low in August, highlighting waning underlying momentum. Moreover, credit grew at the weakest pace in over two years in July, further pointing to softening private sector activity. Meanwhile, authorities recently joined forces with Cameroon to combat the dire security situation in both countries due to separatism.

Nigeria Economic Growth

Africa’s largest economy is forecast to rebound this year, and gain further traction next year, amid the fading impact of the pandemic as foreign and domestic lockdowns are gradually eased. The government’s investment push should further spur activity. However, high inflation, tight FX liquidity, security issues and uncertainty regarding Covid-19 cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth coming in at 2.4% in 2021, before picking up to 2.6% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Nigeria Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)181186191196201
GDP per capita (USD)2,7442,2141,9572,1832,363
GDP (USD bn)497412374428475
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.8-1.60.81.92.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.3-4.8-3.09.78.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-3.4-9.40.9-4.87.5
Unemployment Rate4.37.18.48.28.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.2-4.0-5.4-4.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)20.323.425.327.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)5.917.82.312.16.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.618.615.411.412.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.015.716.512.111.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0014.0014.0014.0013.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)196.5304.5305.5306.5307.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)192.6253.2305.3305.6306.6
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.10.72.80.9-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-15.42.710.43.9-17.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.4-0.513.120.52.9
Exports (USD billion)45.934.745.861.265.0
Imports (USD billion)52.335.232.740.862.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-44.4-24.432.033.66.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.0-32.7-7.324.752.4
International Reserves (USD)29.125.838.843.138.6
External Debt (% of GDP)2.22.85.15.95.8

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Nigeria Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield11.100.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate306.53.08 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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Nigeria Economic News

  • Nigeria: Inflation continues downward trend in September

    October 15, 2021

    Consumer prices rose 1.15% in September, up from August’s 1.02% increase.

    Read more

  • Nigeria: PMI edges up in September

    October 4, 2021

    Operating conditions in Nigeria’s private sector improved at a fractionally stronger pace at the close of the third quarter, with the Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inching up to 52.3 in September from 52.2 in August.

    Read more

  • Nigeria: Central Bank stays put in September

    September 17, 2021

    At its 16–17 September meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria decided to leave all policy parameters unchanged, keeping the monetary policy rate at 11.50%, the asymmetric corridor at plus 100 and minus 700 basis points around the monetary policy rate, the cash reserve ratio at 27.50%, and the liquidity ratio at 30.00%. In deliberating its decision, the Committee noted that inflation has continued to decline, and the economic recovery has seemingly gained traction in the second and third quarters.

    Read more

  • Nigeria: Inflation ticks down to seven-month low in August

    September 16, 2021

    Consumer prices rose 1.02% in August, up from July’s 0.93% increase.

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  • Nigeria: PMI dips in August

    September 3, 2021

    Private sector business conditions in Nigeria improved at a softer pace in August, with the Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropping to 52.2 from the 18-month high of 55.4 in July.

    Read more

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