Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

November 17, 2020

The economy likely remained under marked stress in Q3, following the steep GDP contraction in Q2 due to the pandemic-induced lockdowns and collapse in oil prices. According to secondary sources, crude oil output was down by over a fifth in Q3 from last year as the country increasingly stuck to OPEC+ cut commitments. Together with oil prices stagnating at weak levels in the quarter, the all-important energy sector likely continued to reel. Moreover, accelerating double-digit inflation and tight FX liquidity should have weighed on household purchasing power and general business operations. Meanwhile, leading data points to some improvement in conditions at the outset of Q4: The private sector PMI edged up on robust output and new orders growth, while firms turned markedly less pessimistic in October. That said, the outbreak of widespread violent protests that same month could have weighed on activity to some extent.

Nigeria Economic Growth

On the heels of the worst downturn in recent history this year owing to the pandemic and oil price shock, the economy is seen emerging back to growth in 2021 as demand at home and abroad recover. However, the outlook remains fragile, clouded by uncertainty regarding the oil price trajectory, rising inflation, elevated unemployment, security challenges and social tensions. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth at 1.9% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before picking up to 2.9% in 2022.

Nigeria Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)181186191196201
GDP per capita (USD)2,7442,2141,9572,1832,363
GDP (USD bn)497412374428475
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.8-
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.3-4.8-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-3.4-9.40.9-4.87.5
Unemployment Rate4.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.2-4.0-5.4-4.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)20.323.425.327.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)5.917.82.312.16.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.618.615.411.412.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.015.716.512.111.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0014.0014.0014.0013.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)196.5304.5305.5306.5307.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)192.6253.2305.3305.6306.6
Current Account (% of GDP)-
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-15.42.710.43.9-17.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.4-0.513.120.52.9
Exports (USD billion)45.934.745.861.265.0
Imports (USD billion)52.335.232.740.862.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-44.4-24.432.033.66.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.0-32.7-7.324.752.4
International Reserves (USD)29.125.838.843.138.6
External Debt (% of GDP)

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Nigeria Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield11.100.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate306.53.08 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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