Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

March 20, 2018

The economic recovery gained steam in the final quarter of 2017, with growth rising to a two-year high on the back of a solid performance in the non-oil sector. Higher crop production boosted the agricultural sector, which offset lackluster activity across other divisions of the economy. Moreover, oil production fell in the fourth quarter, dampening the energy sector’s momentum. Early data for the first few months of 2018 suggests that the economy’s positive momentum carried over into the new year: The PMI pointed to healthy growth in February. Meanwhile, political wrangling on the 2018 budget continues, delaying its approval and the expected boost to public infrastructure spending. The record NGN 8.6 trillion (approximately USD 28.2 billion) budget was first presented in November; however, various ministries have not yet come before parliament to defend their allocations, delaying its implementation.

Nigeria Economic Growth

After a moderate 0.8% expansion in 2017, FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth to pick up pace this year and come in at 2.6%, unchanged from last month’s projection. Greater liquidity in the economy and higher oil prices should encourage investment, while households are expected to benefit from lower inflation and an improving labor market. In 2019, growth is seen increasing modestly to 3.0%.

Nigeria Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)165169-  -  -  
Population (million)165169-  -  -  
GDP per capita (USD)2,7082,944-  -  -  
GDP per capita (USD)2,7082,944-  -  -  
GDP (USD bn)446498-  -  -  
GDP (USD bn)446498-  -  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.5-  -  -  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.5-  -  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.021.1-  -  -  
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.021.1-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)2.84.2-  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)2.84.2-  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.50.0-  -  -  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.50.0-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate7.67.1-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate7.67.1-  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-1.4-  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-1.4-  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.512.6-  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.512.6-  -  -  
Money (annual variation in %)16.41.3-  -  -  
Money (annual variation in %)16.41.3-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.08.0-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.08.0-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)12.28.5-  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)12.28.5-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0012.00-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)156.2160.0-  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0012.00-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)156.2160.0-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)158.8159.2-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)158.8159.2-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)4.24.0-  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)4.24.0-  -  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)18.920.1-  -  -  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)18.920.1-  -  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)40.943.8-  -  -  
Trade Balance (USD billion)40.943.8-  -  -  
Exports (USD billion)94.395.1-  -  -  
Exports (USD billion)94.395.1-  -  -  
Imports (USD billion)53.451.4-  -  -  
Imports (USD billion)53.451.4-  -  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.90.8-  -  -  
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.90.8-  -  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.1-3.8-  -  -  
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.1-3.8-  -  -  
International Reserves (USD)44.243.6-  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)1.51.8-  -  -  
External Debt (% of GDP)1.51.8-  -  -  

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Nigeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield13.520.0 %Apr 12
Bond Yield13.520.0 %Apr 12
Exchange Rate305.43.08 %Apr 19
Exchange Rate305.43.08 %Apr 19
Stock Market0.30.0 %Apr 19
Stock Market0.30.0 %Apr 19

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