Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

October 15, 2019

Incoming data suggests that the economy gathered momentum somewhat in Q3, after growth slowed in Q2 on disappointing non-oil sector activity. Bank lending remained strong in July–August and the PMI hit a 15-month high in September, hinting at improved private-sector dynamics. Moreover, preliminary OPEC data showed that oil output averaged higher in Q3 than in Q2, spelling good news for the vital oil industry. That said, lower global crude prices may have capped some of the gains. In late September, the Central Bank raised the minimum loan-to-deposit ratio to 65% from 60%, the second increase in three months, to further pressure banks to boost credit to SMEs and consumers. Concerns have emerged, however, over the measure’s impact on loan quality. Meanwhile, President Buhari presented a record NGN 10.3 trillion 2020 budget to the National Assembly on 8 October, which aims to revive sluggish growth.

Nigeria Economic Growth

Economic activity is seen gaining speed next year amid the ongoing recovery. The full implementation of the minimum wage hike and increased credit provision to the private sector should support domestic demand. However, the outlook is weighed on by elevated unemployment, high dependence on the oil sector, power shortages, insecurity, and a bleaker global economic backdrop. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 2.5% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.9% in 2021.

Nigeria Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)169174179184189
GDP per capita (USD)3,0473,2712,7362,1831,974
GDP (USD bn)516569489401372
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.56.22.8-1.60.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.213.4-1.3-4.8-3.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.16.0-3.4-9.40.9
Unemployment Rate3.74.45.36.26.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-2.1-3.5-4.0-5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)18.617.520.323.425.3
Money (annual variation in %)1.320.65.917.82.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.08.09.618.615.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.58.19.015.716.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0013.0011.0014.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)155.2167.5196.5304.5305.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)155.3156.5192.6253.2305.3
Current Account (% of GDP)3.90.2-3.20.72.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)20.11.3-15.42.710.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)43.821.0-6.4-0.513.1
Exports (USD billion)95.182.645.934.745.8
Imports (USD billion)51.461.652.335.232.7
Exports (annual variation in %)0.8-13.2-44.4-24.432.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.819.9-15.0-32.7-7.3
International Reserves (USD)43.634.529.125.838.8
External Debt (% of GDP)1.71.72.22.85.1

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Nigeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield14.130.0 %Sep 04
Exchange Rate306.53.08 %Sep 04
Stock Market0.10.0 %Sep 04

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