Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

September 18, 2018

GDP data revealed that the recovery faltered in the second quarter. The slowdown was chiefly driven by lower oil output and despite strengthening momentum in the non-oil segment of the economy. Although activity in the oil sector dropped markedly on an annual basis, partly due to oil pipeline disruptions, the impact on overall growth was partially mitigated by higher global energy prices throughout the quarter. On a more positive note, non-oil sector activity accelerated in the second quarter, led by the booming services industry. However, the improvement should be taken with a pinch of salt: Growth within the non-oil sector came entirely on the back of an impressive performance by the telecommunications sector, while activity in other sectors remained broadly stagnant. Moreover, available third-quarter data appears rather downbeat, signaling that the recovery likely has a way to go yet. The PMI fell markedly in July and remained broadly unchanged in August as new orders and output growth decelerated somewhat.

Nigeria Economic Growth

The recovery should speed up next year, on the back of easing inflationary pressures, greater foreign exchange rate allocation and higher global oil prices coupled with a gradual recovery in domestic oil production. Nevertheless, significant downside risks to the outlook persist: Political uncertainty will remain elevated in the run-up to the 2019 elections, while the lethargic implementation of structural economic reforms will continue to undermine growth prospects. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP increasing 2.3% in 2018 and 2.8% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection.

Nigeria Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)169174179184189
GDP per capita (USD)3,0823,3122,7662,2061,995
GDP (USD bn)522576494405376
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.56.22.8-1.60.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)21.20.5-0.4-3.7-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.913.40.6-6.8-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.16.0-3.4-9.4-3.6
Unemployment Rate3.74.64.37.17.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.4-0.9-1.6-2.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.913.116.019.623.4
Money (annual variation in %)1.320.65.817.81.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.08.09.618.615.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.58.19.015.716.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0013.0011.0014.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)155.2167.5196.5304.5305.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)155.3156.5192.6253.2305.3
Current Account (% of GDP)3.70.2-3.10.72.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)19.20.9-15.42.710.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)43.821.0-6.4-0.513.1
Exports (USD billion)95.182.645.934.745.8
Imports (USD billion)51.461.652.335.232.7
Exports (annual variation in %)0.8-13.2-44.4-24.432.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.819.9-15.0-32.7-7.3
International Reserves (USD)43.634.529.125.838.8
External Debt (% of GDP)1.71.72.22.85.0

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Nigeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield15.100.0 %Sep 20
Exchange Rate305.83.08 %Sep 20
Stock Market0.10.0 %Sep 20

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