Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

October 17, 2017

The economy entered a recovery in Q2, with GDP growing for the first time since Q3 2015. Higher oil output and positive dynamics in the agricultural sector helped the economy exit recession, and incoming data for the third quarter suggests that the momentum continued to build in the subsequent months. The PMI recorded its best quarter since Q4 2014 in Q3, and oil production rose in September according to OPEC’s monthly report. While encouraging signs are emerging throughout the economy, the recovery is likely to be fragile and is at risk of being derailed by a military conflict in the oil-rich Niger Delta region. Tensions between militants and the government remain high, and a number of analysts speculate that violence could flare up ahead of the 2019 elections.

Nigeria Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)165169174179184
GDP per capita (USD)2,7082,9443,1822,6771,976
GDP (USD bn)446498553479363
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.25.56.22.8-1.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.021.10.61.5-  
Investment (annual variation in %)2.84.213.4-1.3-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.50.05.50.3-5.7
Unemployment Rate7.67.14.84.35.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-1.4-0.9-1.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.512.610.612.118.6
Money (annual variation in %)16.41.320.65.916.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.08.08.09.618.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)12.28.58.19.015.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0012.0013.0011.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)156.2160.0183.0199.1304.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)158.8159.2165.2197.9256.1
Current Account (% of GDP)4.24.00.2-3.20.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)18.920.11.3-15.42.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)40.943.821.0-6.4-0.5
Exports (USD billion)94.395.182.645.934.7
Imports (USD billion)53.451.461.652.335.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.90.8-13.2-44.4-24.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.1-3.819.9-15.0-32.7
International Reserves (USD)44.243.634.529.125.8
External Debt (% of GDP)1.51.81.82.23.1

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Nigeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield15.000.0 %Oct 18
Exchange Rate305.4-0.13 %Oct 18
Stock Market0.30.0 %Oct 12

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Nigeria Economic Growth

October 17, 2017

After GDP plunged in 2016, FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing a modest 0.9% in 2017 thanks to higher oil output and recovering oil prices. Next year, growth should gain steam on the back of firmer activity in both the oil and non-oil sectors. However, uncertainties over stability in the Niger Delta, a weak fiscal position and foreign exchange distortions are clouding the outlook. The panel sees GDP expanding 2.6% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2019, GDP is see growing 3.1%.

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