Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

December 13, 2018

Economic growth accelerated in the third quarter, buoyed by improved dynamics in both the oil and non-oil economy. Oil output edged up after slumping in Q2 as pipeline disruptions eased, although the energy sector remained weak and contracted again in Q3. Meanwhile, growth within the agricultural and services sectors propelled the non-oil economy’s expansion. Data for the fourth quarter paints a mixed picture: While the PMI rose in November, oil prices fell sharply in the same month. Moreover, oil production will be hampered in the coming months after Nigeria agreed to reduce production starting in January as part of the OPEC and non-OPEC oil output cuts announced on 7 December. Nevertheless, the cut should have a relatively modest impact given that Nigeria had been producing below its previous quota due to capacity constraints.

Nigeria Economic Growth

Growth is seen accelerating moderately next year. Lower inflation and a likely minimum wage hike should lend support to private consumption, while government spending should also pick up. Restrained oil production will drag on growth, however, and political uncertainty ahead of February’s elections is casting a cloud on the country’s economic policies. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP increasing 2.5% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.9% in 2020.

Nigeria Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)169174179184189
GDP per capita (USD)3,0823,3122,7662,2061,995
GDP (USD bn)522576494405376
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.56.22.8-1.60.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)21.20.5-0.4-3.7-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.913.40.6-6.8-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.16.0-3.4-9.4-3.6
Unemployment Rate3.74.64.37.17.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.4-0.9-1.6-2.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.913.116.019.623.4
Money (annual variation in %)1.320.65.817.81.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.08.09.618.615.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.58.19.015.716.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)12.0013.0011.0014.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)155.2167.5196.5304.5305.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)155.3156.5192.6253.2305.3
Current Account (% of GDP)3.70.2-3.10.72.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)19.20.9-15.42.710.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)43.821.0-6.4-0.513.1
Exports (USD billion)95.182.645.934.745.8
Imports (USD billion)51.461.652.335.232.7
Exports (annual variation in %)0.8-13.2-44.4-24.432.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.819.9-15.0-32.7-7.3
International Reserves (USD)43.634.529.125.838.8
External Debt (% of GDP)1.71.72.22.85.0

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Nigeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield15.260.0 %Jan 21
Exchange Rate307.43.08 %Jan 21
Stock Market1.30.0 %Jan 21

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