Nigeria Economic Forecast

Nigeria Economic Outlook

May 26, 2020

The coronavirus pandemic, lockdown measures put in place in major economic hubs, and depressed global crude prices have completely derailed the economy’s already-fragile recovery from its 2016 recession. On the heels of the oil price crash in March, the private sector PMI plunged to a survey record low in April as evaporated demand crushed output and new orders. Notably, disruptions to supply chains and tighter FX liquidity are also likely to stoke inflationary pressures. This, coupled with authorities’ indication of abiding to the OPEC+ agreement struck in April to cut output in May and June, will be pummeling the economy in Q2. In a bid to ease the economic pain, authorities started to gradually lift the lockdown in early May. Although this should enable an improvement in activity in the vast informal sector, possible retightening due to continued health concerns could exacerbate the economic impact.

Nigeria Economic Growth

The Covid-19 outbreak and collapse in international crude prices are set to push the economy back into recession this year. Job losses and lower remittances are poised to hit private consumption hard, while investment activity will suffer amid project delays and uncertainty. The oil-price shock blow to the country’s FX earnings and fiscal revenues are major risks ahead. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 2.5% in 2020, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and growing 2.0% in 2021.

Nigeria Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)181186191196201
GDP per capita (USD)2,6992,1551,9512,134-  
GDP (USD bn)489401372418-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.8-1.60.81.9-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.3-4.8-3.09.7-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-3.4-9.40.9-4.8-  
Unemployment Rate5.36.26.06.06.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-4.0-5.4-4.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)20.323.425.327.3-  
Money (annual variation in %)5.917.82.312.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.618.615.411.412.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.015.716.512.111.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0014.0014.0014.0013.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)196.5304.5305.5306.5307.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)192.6253.2305.3305.6306.6
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.20.72.81.3-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-15.42.710.45.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.4-0.513.122.3-  
Exports (USD billion)45.934.745.863.1-  
Imports (USD billion)52.335.232.740.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-44.4-24.432.037.7-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.0-32.7-7.324.7-  
International Reserves (USD)29.125.838.843.138.6
External Debt (% of GDP)2.22.85.16.0-  

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Nigeria Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield11.100.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate306.53.08 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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