Bulgaria Economic Forecast

Bulgaria Economic Outlook

October 3, 2017

The Bulgarian economy ended the first half of year on a strong note, according to complete GDP data published by the Statistical Institute in September. Annual GDP growth was confirmed at 3.6% in Q2, a marginal improvement from Q1’s result. Growth continued to be driven by healthy household consumption and export growth, and leading indicators suggest the momentum will be sustained throughout the rest of the year. Unemployment rested at its lowest level ever in August, which would point to household consumption remaining one of the main engines of growth over the medium term. Industrial production also continued to grow at a robust annualized pace in July, albeit slightly below the high rates seen in H1.

Bulgaria Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)7.37.27.27.27.1
GDP per capita (EUR)5,7265,7905,9376,3306,657
GDP (EUR bn)41.741.942.845.347.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.21.32.43.63.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.3-2.22.53.92.1
Investment (annual variation in %)1.80.33.42.7-4.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.4-0.21.82.95.2
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.33.810.211.83.9
Unemployment Rate11.511.810.710.08.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.3-0.4-5.5-1.60.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)16.717.027.026.029.5
Money (annual variation in %)8.59.01.28.87.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.2-1.6-0.9-0.40.1
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)2.40.4-1.6-1.1-1.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.3-1.3-0.9-1.7-2.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.030.020.020.03-0.21
Stock Market (annual variation in %)7.342.36.2-11.727.2
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)1.961.961.961.961.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.961.961.961.961.96
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.81.30.1-0.14.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.40.50.0-0.12.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.0-2.9-2.8-2.6-1.8
Exports (EUR billion)19.721.221.021.922.6
Imports (EUR billion)23.724.223.824.524.4
Exports (annual variation in %)3.27.8-0.94.22.9
Imports (annual variation in %)8.82.0-1.43.1-0.6
International Reserves (EUR)15.614.416.620.323.9
External Debt (% of GDP)90.488.091.974.973.1

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Bulgaria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.450.0 %Oct 18
Exchange Rate1.660.09 %Oct 18
Stock Market671-0.08 %Oct 18

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Bulgaria Economic Growth

October 3, 2017

A higher uptake of EU funds and strong private consumption growth will ensure the economy remains on a dynamic path. Growth should also be supported by the cyclical upswing in the region, translating to higher demand for Bulgarian goods. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 3.5% in 2017 and 3.2% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Bulgaria Economic News

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