Bulgaria Economic Outlook
October 5, 2021Recent data confirmed that the economy rebounded strongly in annual terms in Q2. The domestic economy drove the upturn, with the growth rate of total consumption doubling from the prior quarter and capital spending expanding at a robust pace. Turning to Q3, conditions appeared to moderate somewhat. Industrial output increased at a slower rate in July than in Q2, while exports grew at the slowest pace in five months in the same month. However, the unemployment rate declined in July and household credit growth accelerated to a 17-month high in August, both of which point to improving consumer spending. In politics, the country will go to the polls once again in November, after July’s parliamentary elections—the second to have taken place this year—failed to produce a government. The vote will also coincide with presidential elections, with President Rumen Radev seeking a second five-year term.
Bulgaria Economic GrowthThe economy should expand at a solid rate this year, before growth eases in 2022. Lower growth in government spending should drive the slowdown, while export growth will ease from 2021’s projected rapid rebound. Meanwhile, risks are tilted to the downside amid a slow vaccination campaign, the potential emergence of new Covid-19 variants and ongoing political uncertainty. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 4.4% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s prediction.
Bulgaria Economy Data
5 years of Bulgaria economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Bulgaria Economic News
September 15, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.77% in August over the previous month, matching July's reading.
September 10, 2021
Industrial output rose 8.3% year-on-year in July, slowing from June’s 10.5% increase.
September 7, 2021
A second reading confirmed that GDP bounced back in the second quarter, expanding 9.9% and contrasting the 1.8% contraction recorded in the first quarter.
August 17, 2021
According to a flash estimate, GDP rebounded 9.6% year-on-year in the second quarter, contrasting the 1.7% contraction seen in the first quarter.
August 16, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.77% over the previous month in July, contrasting June's 0.21% drop.