Bulgaria Economic Forecast

Bulgaria Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

The economy appears to have lost some steam in the final quarter of the year. Growth in industrial production moderated in year-on-year terms in the first two months of Q4, and the unemployment rate edged up throughout the quarter, after declining in the first three quarters. Survey-based business and consumer confidence dipped in December as consumers’ assessments of current and future economic conditions deteriorated. 2018 started on a brighter note, however: In January, consumer confidence bounced back to November’s level, and business confidence jumped to the highest level since October 2008. On the political scene, Prime Minister Boyko Borisov survived a no-confidence vote on 25 January over the lack of progress in combatting widespread corruption. The opposition has criticized Borisov for not tackling corruption, which is weighing on foreign investment and stalling talks for greater integration and cooperation with the European Union.

Bulgaria Economic Growth

The Bulgarian economy is set to decelerate in the next two years but will remain buoyant nonetheless. Tighter fiscal spending and higher inflation will weigh on private consumption and overall growth. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 3.6% in 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel sees growth moderating slightly, to 3.2%.

Bulgaria Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (EUR)5,7265,7905,9376,3306,657
GDP (EUR bn)41.741.942.845.347.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.3-
Investment (annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.4-
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.33.810.211.83.9
Unemployment Rate11.511.810.710.08.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.3-0.4-5.5-1.60.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)16.717.
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.2-1.6-0.9-0.40.1
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)2.40.4-1.6-1.1-1.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.3-1.3-0.9-1.7-2.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Stock Market (annual variation in %)7.342.36.2-11.727.2
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)1.961.961.961.961.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.961.961.961.961.96
Current Account (% of GDP)-
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.0-2.9-2.8-2.6-1.8
Exports (EUR billion)19.721.221.021.922.6
Imports (EUR billion)23.724.223.824.524.4
Exports (annual variation in %)3.27.8-
Imports (annual variation in %)8.82.0-1.43.1-0.6
International Reserves (EUR)15.614.416.620.323.9
External Debt (% of GDP)90.488.091.974.973.1

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Bulgaria Facts

Bond Yield1.300.0 %Feb 22
Exchange Rate1.59-0.72 %Feb 22
Stock Market688-0.35 %Feb 22

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