Bulgaria Economic Forecast

Bulgaria Economic Outlook

January 14, 2020

Growth ebbed marginally in the third quarter but remained robust, according to updated GDP data. Total consumption cooled on slower household consumption growth, in turn likely linked to softer wage gains. Meanwhile, fixed investment accelerated while exports rebounded. Turning to the fourth quarter, a continuation of the slowdown looks likely, with easing retail sales growth in October–November hinting at softer private consumption. More positively, in the same period industrial production gained momentum following a string of weak readings, while unemployment continued to creep lower in November. Meanwhile, S&P raised its credit rating for Bulgaria to BBB from BBB- at the end of November, citing resilient growth, the strong fiscal position and progress towards adoption of the euro, while also maintaining its positive outlook.

Bulgaria Economic Growth

Growth is seen slowing this year, as consumer spending growth slackens and a less expansionary fiscal stance curtails government spending. That said, the economy should sustain a robust rate of expansion, underpinned by increased investment activity, although unfavorable demographics could pressure public finances going forward. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 3.0% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2021.

Bulgaria Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)7.27.27.27.17.1
GDP per capita (EUR)5,7775,9466,3306,7767,328
GDP (EUR bn)41.942.845.348.151.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.51.83.53.93.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.52.74.33.54.5
Investment (annual variation in %)0.33.42.7-6.63.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.21.82.92.73.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)3.810.211.86.15.4
Unemployment Rate13.310.48.06.75.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.4-5.5-1.70.11.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)17.127.126.229.625.6
Money (annual variation in %)9.01.28.87.67.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.6-0.9-0.40.12.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.4-1.6-1.1-1.31.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-1.3-0.9-1.7-2.94.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.020.020.010.00.0
Stock Market (annual variation in %)42.36.2-11.727.215.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)1.961.961.961.961.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.961.961.961.961.96
Current Account (% of GDP)1.31.30.02.63.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.50.50.01.21.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.9-2.8-2.6-1.0-0.8
Exports (EUR billion)21.221.021.923.127.0
Imports (EUR billion)24.223.824.524.127.7
Exports (annual variation in %)7.8-0.94.25.416.6
Imports (annual variation in %)2.0-1.43.1-1.815.1
International Reserves (EUR)14.416.620.323.923.7
External Debt (% of GDP)88.291.874.071.165.6

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Bulgaria Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.400.0 %Dec 31

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