Bulgaria Economic Forecast

Bulgaria Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

Recent data confirmed that the economy rebounded strongly in annual terms in Q2. The domestic economy drove the upturn, with the growth rate of total consumption doubling from the prior quarter and capital spending expanding at a robust pace. Turning to Q3, conditions appeared to moderate somewhat. Industrial output increased at a slower rate in July than in Q2, while exports grew at the slowest pace in five months in the same month. However, the unemployment rate declined in July and household credit growth accelerated to a 17-month high in August, both of which point to improving consumer spending. In politics, the country will go to the polls once again in November, after July’s parliamentary elections—the second to have taken place this year—failed to produce a government. The vote will also coincide with presidential elections, with President Rumen Radev seeking a second five-year term.

Bulgaria Economic Growth

The economy should expand at a solid rate this year, before growth eases in 2022. Lower growth in government spending should drive the slowdown, while export growth will ease from 2021’s projected rapid rebound. Meanwhile, risks are tilted to the downside amid a slow vaccination campaign, the potential emergence of new Covid-19 variants and ongoing political uncertainty. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 4.4% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s prediction.

Bulgaria Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)7.27.17.17.07.0
GDP per capita (EUR)6,3846,8467,4198,0128,717
GDP (EUR bn)45.748.652.356.160.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.03.83.53.13.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.63.53.84.35.8
Investment (annual variation in %)2.7-6.63.25.42.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.92.73.40.30.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.86.15.43.33.3
Unemployment Rate8.06.75.74.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.70.11.12.02.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)26.029.325.322.320.4
Money (annual variation in %)8.87.67.78.99.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.40.12.82.73.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-1.1-1.31.22.62.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-1.7-2.94.24.13.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.010.00.00.00.0
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.727.215.5-12.3-4.4
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)1.961.961.961.961.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.961.961.961.961.96
Current Account (% of GDP)0.13.23.51.44.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.11.61.80.82.5
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.6-1.0-0.8-1.9-1.7
Exports (EUR billion)21.923.127.027.729.1
Imports (EUR billion)24.524.127.729.630.8
Exports (annual variation in %)4.25.416.62.94.9
Imports (annual variation in %)3.1-1.815.16.84.0
International Reserves (EUR)20.323.923.725.124.8
External Debt (% of GDP)73.370.364.860.356.2

Sample Report

5 years of Bulgaria economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Bulgaria Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.400.0 %Dec 31

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Bulgaria Economic News

Search form