Bulgaria Economic Forecast

Bulgaria Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

Recent data confirmed that the economy rebounded strongly in annual terms in Q2. The domestic economy drove the upturn, with the growth rate of total consumption doubling from the prior quarter and capital spending expanding at a robust pace. Turning to Q3, conditions appeared to moderate somewhat. Industrial output increased at a slower rate in July than in Q2, while exports grew at the slowest pace in five months in the same month. However, the unemployment rate declined in July and household credit growth accelerated to a 17-month high in August, both of which point to improving consumer spending. In politics, the country will go to the polls once again in November, after July’s parliamentary elections—the second to have taken place this year—failed to produce a government. The vote will also coincide with presidential elections, with President Rumen Radev seeking a second five-year term.

Bulgaria Economic Growth

The economy should expand at a solid rate this year, before growth eases in 2022. Lower growth in government spending should drive the slowdown, while export growth will ease from 2021’s projected rapid rebound. Meanwhile, risks are tilted to the downside amid a slow vaccination campaign, the potential emergence of new Covid-19 variants and ongoing political uncertainty. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 4.4% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s prediction.

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Bulgaria Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.400.0 %Dec 31

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