Bulgaria Economic Outlook
January 11, 2022Economic activity cooled in the third quarter, according to a second national accounts estimate, with growth slowing in annual terms after Q2’s strong rebound. While partly attributable to a less favorable base effect, moderating consumption growth and a sharper contraction in capital spending drove the slowdown in the domestic economy, while the increase in exports more than halved from Q2’s level. Turning to Q4, a surge in Covid-19 infections through November prompted a tightening of related restrictions, likely weighing on activity. In politics, November’s elections—the third to have taken place in 2021—finally resulted in a new government, with the country’s parliament approving a four-party coalition headed by the Continuing the Change (PP) party. As such, Kiril Petkov of the PP was elected as the new prime minister, having campaigned on a zero-tolerance platform against corruption.
Bulgaria Economic GrowthThis year, the economy should grow at a similar rate to 2021’s projected level. Lower public and household spending growth should be compensated by a rebound in fixed investment. However, risks are skewed to the downside amid a slow vaccination campaign, the spread of the Omicron variant and ongoing political uncertainty. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 3.8% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2023.
Bulgaria Economy Data
5 years of Bulgaria economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Bulgaria Economic News
December 15, 2021
Consumer prices increased 1.36% in November over the previous month, moderating from the 1.82% rise recorded in October.
December 10, 2021
Industrial output grew 9.7% in year-on-year terms in October, which followed September's 9.7% increase.
December 7, 2021
A second reading confirmed that the economy lost momentum in the third quarter, expanding 4.6% and slowing from the 7.1% increase recorded in the second quarter.
November 15, 2021
Consumer prices increased 1.82% in October over the previous month, accelerating from the 0.40% rise recorded in September.
November 10, 2021
Industrial output rose 10.5% compared to the same month of the previous year in September, which was a marginal deterioration from August's 10.6% increase.