Bulgaria Economic Forecast

Bulgaria Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

Available figures for Q3 paint a bleak picture, following the record decline in activity in Q2. Although the contraction in industrial output eased further in August, marking the best result in six months, foreign tourist arrivals fell by over two thirds year-on-year in August–September, which likely weighed heavily on the key tourism sector. Turning to Q4, consumer sentiment soured in October, likely owing to increasing concerns over surging numbers of new Covid-19 cases. In a bid to halt the spread of the virus, the authorities closed high schools, universities and night clubs on 29 October for at least two weeks, boding ill for activity in the final months of the year. In other news, on 28 October, the government approved the 2021 draft budget, directing EUR 1.5 billion towards pandemic relief measures, while foreseeing a budget deficit of 4.4.% of GDP in 2020 and 3.9% of GDP in 2021.

Bulgaria Economic Growth

In 2021, the economy is set to rebound from its coronavirus-induced contraction this year. Household and capital spending should expand solidly, while a pickup in global demand should support the external sector. Heightened general uncertainty and a prolonged health crisis pose key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 4.2% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.6% in 2022.

Bulgaria Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)7.27.17.17.07.0
GDP per capita (EUR)6,3846,8467,4198,0128,717
GDP (EUR bn)45.748.652.356.160.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.03.83.53.13.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.63.53.84.35.8
Investment (annual variation in %)2.7-6.63.25.42.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.92.73.40.30.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.86.15.43.33.3
Unemployment Rate8.06.75.74.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.70.11.12.02.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)26.029.325.322.320.4
Money (annual variation in %)8.87.67.78.99.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.40.12.82.73.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-1.1-1.31.22.62.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-1.7-2.94.24.13.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.010.00.00.00.0
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.727.215.5-12.3-4.4
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)1.961.961.961.961.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.961.961.961.961.96
Current Account (% of GDP)0.13.23.51.44.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.11.61.80.82.5
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.6-1.0-0.8-1.9-1.7
Exports (EUR billion)21.923.127.027.729.1
Imports (EUR billion)24.524.127.729.630.8
Exports (annual variation in %)4.25.416.62.94.9
Imports (annual variation in %)3.1-1.815.16.84.0
International Reserves (EUR)20.323.923.725.124.8
External Debt (% of GDP)73.370.364.860.356.2

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Bulgaria Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.400.0 %Dec 31

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