Bulgaria Economic Forecast

Bulgaria Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

The Bulgarian economy shifted into a higher gear in Q3, with GDP growth accelerating from 3.7% annually in Q2 to 3.9%. The reading, which marked the fastest expansion since Q1 2011, was mostly underpinned by the domestic economy. The economy has benefited from the resumption of EU investment funds inflows, along with declining unemployment throughout the year and higher wages. Stronger economic activity and improved tax collection have enabled the government to increase public expenditure and wages without severely impacting its fiscal account, which should keep the economy on a solid footing. Survey-based data from the final quarter suggests that the momentum has persisted. In October, business confidence recorded its highest reading since October 2008, and consumer confidence dipped slightly from the over ten-year high in September.

Bulgaria Economic Growth

A solid labor market, a high level of public expenditure and growth in fixed investment should support economic growth in 2018 and 2019. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 3.3% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel sees growth moderating slightly to 3.0%.

Bulgaria Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)7.37.27.27.27.1
GDP per capita (EUR)5,7265,7905,9376,3306,657
GDP (EUR bn)41.741.942.845.347.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.21.32.43.63.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.3-2.22.53.92.1
Investment (annual variation in %)1.80.33.42.7-4.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.4-0.21.82.95.2
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.33.810.211.83.9
Unemployment Rate11.511.810.710.08.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.3-0.4-5.5-1.60.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)16.717.027.026.029.5
Money (annual variation in %)8.59.01.28.87.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.2-1.6-0.9-0.40.1
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)2.40.4-1.6-1.1-1.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.3-1.3-0.9-1.7-2.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.030.020.020.03-0.21
Stock Market (annual variation in %)7.342.36.2-11.727.2
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)1.961.961.961.961.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.961.961.961.961.96
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.81.30.1-0.14.2
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.40.50.0-0.12.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-4.0-2.9-2.8-2.6-1.8
Exports (EUR billion)19.721.221.021.922.6
Imports (EUR billion)23.724.223.824.524.4
Exports (annual variation in %)3.27.8-0.94.22.9
Imports (annual variation in %)8.82.0-1.43.1-0.6
International Reserves (EUR)15.614.416.620.323.9
External Debt (% of GDP)90.488.091.974.973.1

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Bulgaria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.200.0 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate1.66-0.72 %Dec 06
Stock Market666-0.35 %Dec 06

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