Bulgaria Economic Forecast

Bulgaria Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

Annual growth in Q1 2022 decelerated compared to Q4 2021, according to a flash estimate. The moderation was driven by softer growth of private consumption—amid staggeringly high energy and food prices—and was weighed down further by weaker export growth. In Q2, growth is likely slowing further to pre-pandemic levels. Inflation was at a near 14-year high in April and energy insecurity is deepening. As a result, businesses and consumers grew increasingly pessimistic in April–May, with consumer confidence reaching the lowest level since December 2020 in May. That said, on 18 May the government approved a LV 2.0 billion (around EUR 1.0 billion) anti-crisis package to support households. The new measures include a 20.0% boost to pensions, fuel discounts and tax cuts for bread and utilities, among others, which will provide some relief to activity once they enter into force in July.

Bulgaria Economic Growth

In 2022, growth is projected to slow to slightly above pre-pandemic averages: Weaker household spending growth due to a high base effect and monumentally high inflation will more than offset a rebound in fixed investment. Uncertainty around the country’s energy supply, political instability and the potentially slow absorption of public and European Union funds cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 2.6% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.2% in 2023.

Bulgaria Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)7.27.17.17.07.0
GDP per capita (EUR)6,3846,8467,4198,0128,717
GDP (EUR bn)45.748.652.356.160.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.03.83.53.13.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.63.53.84.35.8
Investment (annual variation in %)2.7-6.63.25.42.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.92.73.40.30.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)11.86.15.43.33.3
Unemployment Rate8.06.75.74.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.70.11.12.02.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)26.029.325.322.320.4
Money (annual variation in %)8.87.67.78.99.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.40.12.82.73.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-1.1-1.31.22.62.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-1.7-2.94.24.13.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.010.00.00.00.0
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-11.727.215.5-12.3-4.4
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)1.961.961.961.961.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.961.961.961.961.96
Current Account (% of GDP)0.13.23.51.44.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.11.61.80.82.5
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.6-1.0-0.8-1.9-1.7
Exports (EUR billion)21.923.127.027.729.1
Imports (EUR billion)24.524.127.729.630.8
Exports (annual variation in %)4.25.416.62.94.9
Imports (annual variation in %)3.1-1.815.16.84.0
International Reserves (EUR)20.323.923.725.124.8
External Debt (% of GDP)73.370.364.860.356.2

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Bulgaria Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.400.0 %Dec 31

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