Bulgaria Economic Outlook
October 2, 2018
Comprehensive national accounts data confirmed another solid outturn for the economy in the second quarter, driven by firm domestically-led gains. Fixed investment grew robustly but eased in line with looser industrial capacity, while household spending jumped amid strong employment gains—and despite sharply higher inflation. Meanwhile, as was seen more broadly across Europe, exports of goods and services moderated as this year’s retreat from global trade ate into external demand. Analysts are banking on a strong second half of the year, although available data for the third quarter has been noticeably less upbeat in recent weeks. Despite the tight labor market and firm retail sales through July, unremarkable industrial output and companies’ newfound pessimism suggest some moderation domestically, while Turkey’s economic crisis is likely to further afflict the external sector.Bulgaria Economic Growth
Household spending will run up against slower employment gains and elevated inflation next year. Meanwhile, cheap borrowing and strong absorption of EU funding are expected to buttress fixed investment. Exports should be buoyant and, over the medium-term, sound fiscal policy should translate into greater FDI inflows. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 3.6% in 2018 and 3.4% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast.Bulgaria Economy Data
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Bulgaria Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 0.95 | 0.0 % | Oct 12 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.69 | -0.72 % | Oct 12 |
| Stock Market | 610 | -0.35 % | Oct 12 |
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Bulgaria Economic News
Bulgaria: Inflation steady at five-and-a-half year high in August
September 13, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.1% over the previous month in August, following a 0.7% month-on-month increase in July.
Bulgaria: Industrial output eases in July
September 10, 2018
In seasonally-adjusted terms, industrial output shrank 1.2% on a monthly basis in July (June: +0.8% month-on-month s.a.). On an annual basis, industrial output in working day-adjusted terms decelerated to 1.0% in July, coming in below June’s 3.6% expansion.
Bulgaria: Growth moderates in Q2 on slower investment, exports
September 7, 2018
In line with the preliminary estimate, comprehensive data released by the Statistical Institute confirmed growth on an annual basis at a seasonally-adjusted 3.4% in the second quarter, just missing analysts’ expectations and down a couple notches from the 3.6% year-on-year expansion recorded in the first quarter. A breakdown by expenditure showed that fixed investment eased somewhat (Q2: +4.6% yoy s.a.; Q1: +7.0% yoy s.a.) amid looser industrial capacity.
Bulgaria: Inflation climbs higher, reaching five-and-a-half year high
August 14, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.7% over the previous month in July, after a 0.1% month-on-month increase in June.
Bulgaria: GDP growth loses pace slightly in the second quarter
August 14, 2018
A preliminary release by the Statistical Institute showed that the economy grew 3.4% on an annual basis in the second quarter, marginally down from the revised 3.6% year-on-year expansion recorded in the first quarter (previously reported: +3.5% year-on-year).
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