Bulgaria Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020Available figures for Q3 paint a bleak picture, following the record decline in activity in Q2. Although the contraction in industrial output eased further in August, marking the best result in six months, foreign tourist arrivals fell by over two thirds year-on-year in August–September, which likely weighed heavily on the key tourism sector. Turning to Q4, consumer sentiment soured in October, likely owing to increasing concerns over surging numbers of new Covid-19 cases. In a bid to halt the spread of the virus, the authorities closed high schools, universities and night clubs on 29 October for at least two weeks, boding ill for activity in the final months of the year. In other news, on 28 October, the government approved the 2021 draft budget, directing EUR 1.5 billion towards pandemic relief measures, while foreseeing a budget deficit of 4.4.% of GDP in 2020 and 3.9% of GDP in 2021.
Bulgaria Economic GrowthIn 2021, the economy is set to rebound from its coronavirus-induced contraction this year. Household and capital spending should expand solidly, while a pickup in global demand should support the external sector. Heightened general uncertainty and a prolonged health crisis pose key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 4.2% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.6% in 2022.
Bulgaria Economy Data
5 years of Bulgaria economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Bulgaria Economic News
November 16, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.64% over the previous month in October, contrasting the 0.63% fall seen in September and marking the sharpest increase in prices since January.
November 13, 2020
According to a flash estimate, GDP declined 5.2% year-on-year in the third quarter—a softer drop than the second quarter’s 8.6% slump—as the gradual lifting of Covid-19 containment measures enabled some recovery in activity.
November 9, 2020
Industrial production slid 2.6% year-on-year in September (August: -5.9% yoy), marking the best result since February.
October 14, 2020
Consumer prices fell 0.63% over the previous month in September, swinging from the 0.04% rise seen in August and marking the sharpest fall in prices since April.
October 9, 2020
Industrial production declined 5.7% in year-on-year, calendar-day adjusted terms in August, a more moderate contraction than July’s 6.1% fall.