Bulgaria Economic Outlook
November 27, 2018Third-quarter growth fell short of expectations due to another poor outturn for the external sector. Hit by neighboring Turkey’s economic crisis, exports contracted for a second straight quarter; import growth, on the other hand, held broadly steady from a quarter earlier. Meanwhile, domestic demand fared well thanks to brisk household spending in line with falling unemployment and the recent recovery in retail sales. Fixed investment was firm in annual terms thanks to decent absorption of EU-linked structural funding, although sequential data suggested a slight deceleration. Available data for the fourth quarter hints at slightly slower growth. Nevertheless, analysts have largely stuck to their guns and their growth forecasts remain upbeat despite weaker consumer sentiment and near-neutral business sentiment in October. Moreover, further volatility in Turkey continues to threaten exports.
Bulgaria Economic GrowthSlower employment growth and elevated inflation are expected to hit household spending next year, although supportive fiscal policy in the run-up to next year’s European and local elections should cushion any moderation. Fixed investment, meanwhile should continue benefiting from low interest rates and above-average absorption rates for EU funds. A pullback in global trade and, in particular, weaker external demand from the EU and Turkey is likely to curb export growth. Over the medium-term, sound fiscal metrics and an improved business climate should translate into greater FDI inflows. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 3.4% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.
Bulgaria Economy Data
5 years of Bulgaria economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||0.90||0.0 %||Dec 12|
|Exchange Rate||1.72||-0.72 %||Dec 12|
|Stock Market||593||-0.35 %||Dec 12|
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Bulgaria Economic News
November 14, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.7% over the previous month, following a 0.3% month-on-month increase in September.
November 8, 2018
Industrial output fell 0.8% in working day-adjusted terms and on an annual basis in September, contrasting the revised 1.7% year-on-year expansion logged in August (previously reported: +2.3% year-on-year).
October 15, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.3% over the previous month in September, following a 0.1% month-on-month increase in August.
September 13, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.1% over the previous month in August, following a 0.7% month-on-month increase in July.
September 10, 2018
In seasonally-adjusted terms, industrial output shrank 1.2% on a monthly basis in July (June: +0.8% month-on-month s.a.). On an annual basis, industrial output in working day-adjusted terms decelerated to 1.0% in July, coming in below June’s 3.6% expansion.