Bulgaria Economic Outlook
April 2, 2019Detailed national accounts data revealed that the economy decelerated last year, after annual growth in the final quarter just inched up from Q3 on an improved performance in the external sector. Turning to 2019, momentum likely waned in Q1: Retail sales grew at a weaker pace in January compared to Q4, unemployment crept up in January–February, which, along with a fall in consumer confidence in Q1, indicate downbeat prospects for household spending. And while industrial output rebounded in January, business confidence tumbled throughout Q1, slumping to the lowest level in nearly five years in March. Meanwhile, the IMF noted in its Article IV consultation on 20 March, that while Bulgaria’s economic prospects remain solid, broad-based structural reforms are needed, especially in light of risks stemming from weaker trading prospects. On a positive note, Fitch upgraded the country’s credit rating outlook from stable to positive on 22 March, citing ongoing improvements in external and fiscal balances.
Bulgaria Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to grow at a healthy pace this year. Rising wages should support solid growth in private consumption, while increased absorption of EU structural funds should aid robust capital spending. However, downside risks to the outlook stem from a greater-than-expected slowdown in global trade and weaker growth in key trading partners. FocusEconomics analysts project growth of 3.3% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.
Bulgaria Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||0.61||0.0 %||Apr 22|
|Exchange Rate||1.74||-0.72 %||Apr 22|
|Stock Market||575||-0.35 %||Apr 18|
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Bulgaria Economic News
April 15, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.1% from the previous month in March, following February’s 0.5% increase.
April 9, 2019
Industrial output jumped 6.6% in working day-adjusted annual terms in February, following the 2.6% rise logged in January and marking the strongest expansion since May 2017.
March 13, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.5% from the previous month in February, following January’s 0.6% increase.
March 8, 2019
Industrial output rose 2.8% in working day-adjusted annual terms in January, contrasting the 2.9% year-on-year decline logged in December, which had marked the sharpest contraction in five and a half years.
March 7, 2019
According to comprehensive data released by the Statistical Institute on 7 March, the economy grew 3.2% in annual and seasonally-adjusted terms in the final quarter of 2018, a notch above both the preliminary estimate and the third quarter’s reading (Q3: +3.1% year-on-year s.a.).