Bulgaria Economic Forecast

Bulgaria Economic Outlook

January 11, 2022

Economic activity cooled in the third quarter, according to a second national accounts estimate, with growth slowing in annual terms after Q2’s strong rebound. While partly attributable to a less favorable base effect, moderating consumption growth and a sharper contraction in capital spending drove the slowdown in the domestic economy, while the increase in exports more than halved from Q2’s level. Turning to Q4, a surge in Covid-19 infections through November prompted a tightening of related restrictions, likely weighing on activity. In politics, November’s elections—the third to have taken place in 2021—finally resulted in a new government, with the country’s parliament approving a four-party coalition headed by the Continuing the Change (PP) party. As such, Kiril Petkov of the PP was elected as the new prime minister, having campaigned on a zero-tolerance platform against corruption.

Bulgaria Economic Growth

This year, the economy should grow at a similar rate to 2021’s projected level. Lower public and household spending growth should be compensated by a rebound in fixed investment. However, risks are skewed to the downside amid a slow vaccination campaign, the spread of the Omicron variant and ongoing political uncertainty. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 3.8% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2023.

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Bulgaria Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.400.0 %Dec 31

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