Bulgaria Economic Forecast

Bulgaria Economic Outlook

October 2, 2018

Comprehensive national accounts data confirmed another solid outturn for the economy in the second quarter, driven by firm domestically-led gains. Fixed investment grew robustly but eased in line with looser industrial capacity, while household spending jumped amid strong employment gains—and despite sharply higher inflation. Meanwhile, as was seen more broadly across Europe, exports of goods and services moderated as this year’s retreat from global trade ate into external demand. Analysts are banking on a strong second half of the year, although available data for the third quarter has been noticeably less upbeat in recent weeks. Despite the tight labor market and firm retail sales through July, unremarkable industrial output and companies’ newfound pessimism suggest some moderation domestically, while Turkey’s economic crisis is likely to further afflict the external sector.

Bulgaria Economic Growth

Household spending will run up against slower employment gains and elevated inflation next year. Meanwhile, cheap borrowing and strong absorption of EU funding are expected to buttress fixed investment. Exports should be buoyant and, over the medium-term, sound fiscal policy should translate into greater FDI inflows. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 3.6% in 2018 and 3.4% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Bulgaria Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.27.27.27.17.1
GDP per capita (EUR)5,7845,9376,3306,7767,141
GDP (EUR bn)41.942.845.348.150.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.91.33.63.93.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.52.74.33.54.8
Investment (annual variation in %)0.33.42.7-6.63.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.21.82.92.73.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)3.810.211.86.13.7
Unemployment Rate11.810.710.08.07.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.4-5.5-1.60.20.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)17.027.026.029.025.4
Money (annual variation in %)9.01.28.87.67.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-1.6-0.9-0.40.12.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.4-1.6-1.1-1.31.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-1.3-0.9-1.7-2.94.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.020.020.010.00.0
Stock Market (annual variation in %)42.36.2-11.727.215.5
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)1.961.961.961.961.96
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)1.961.961.961.961.96
Current Account (% of GDP)1.30.10.02.34.5
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.50.00.01.12.3
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.9-2.8-2.6-1.0-2.1
Exports (EUR billion)21.221.021.923.125.8
Imports (EUR billion)24.223.824.524.127.8
Exports (annual variation in %)7.8-0.94.25.411.5
Imports (annual variation in %)2.0-1.43.1-1.815.5
International Reserves (EUR)14.416.620.323.923.7
External Debt (% of GDP)88.091.974.071.166.0

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Bulgaria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.950.0 %Oct 12
Exchange Rate1.69-0.72 %Oct 12
Stock Market610-0.35 %Oct 12

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