Bulgaria Economic Outlook
July 3, 2018
Comprehensive data put growth in the first quarter at 3.6% year-on-year, a notch above both the preliminary estimate and growth in the fourth quarter last year. Leading the first-quarter expansion was a jump in investment, which benefited from upbeat business sentiment and EU-linked capital spending in the quarter. Externally, the blocwide slowdown did not noticeably restrain exports, which posted solid growth in the quarter. Available data for the second quarter has been mixed; a remarkable decline in the unemployment rate corroborated strong retail sales and improving consumer sentiment, although households likely felt the pinch of higher inflation. On the other hand, industrial gains have been inconsistent in recent months—and output most recently lost ground on an annual basis in April. As it stands, the country’s eventual adoption of the euro was delayed following the ECB’s warnings in June ahead of Bulgaria’s application to the ERM-II. Bowing to the ECB’s preconditions, Bulgarian officials now expect to apply to both the EU’s banking union and the ERM-II sometime in the next year.Bulgaria Economic Growth
Household spending will benefit from a tight labor market and public-sector wage hikes this year, although inflation is expected to eat into gains somewhat. Heavy EU-funded outlays will prop up investment, which will be further supported by the improving business climate and low interest rates. Sound fiscal policy is expected to attract stronger FDI inflows. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 3.6% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.3% in 2019.Bulgaria Economy Data
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Bulgaria Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 1.04 | 0.0 % | Jul 12 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.68 | -0.72 % | Jul 13 |
| Stock Market | 627 | -0.35 % | Jul 13 |
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Bulgaria Economic News
Bulgaria: Inflation jumps in May
June 13, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in May, moderating slightly from April’s 0.4% rise.
Bulgaria: Industrial output contracts on manufacturing losses in April
June 8, 2018
Industrial output contracted on a monthly basis in April, falling 2.0% in seasonally-adjusted terms (March: +1.7% month-on-month s.a.). On an annual basis, industrial output declined 0.8% in working day-adjusted terms in April, contrasting March’s 1.6% expansion.
Bulgaria: GDP growth ticks up in Q1 on investment-driven gains
June 7, 2018
Comprehensive data released by the Statistical Institute puts growth in the first quarter at 3.6% year-on-year, a notch above both the preliminary estimate and growth in the fourth quarter last year.
Bulgaria: GDP growth stable at 3.5% year-on-year in Q1
May 25, 2018
A preliminary release by the Statistical Institute showed that the economy grew 3.5% on an annual basis in the first quarter, in line with growth in the fourth quarter of last year.
Bulgaria: Inflation ticks down in April
May 15, 2018
Consumer prices rebounded on a monthly basis in April, rising 0.4% (March: -0.3% month-on-month).
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