Bulgaria Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020
Available figures for Q3 paint a bleak picture, following the record decline in activity in Q2. Although the contraction in industrial output eased further in August, marking the best result in six months, foreign tourist arrivals fell by over two thirds year-on-year in August–September, which likely weighed heavily on the key tourism sector. Turning to Q4, consumer sentiment soured in October, likely owing to increasing concerns over surging numbers of new Covid-19 cases. In a bid to halt the spread of the virus, the authorities closed high schools, universities and night clubs on 29 October for at least two weeks, boding ill for activity in the final months of the year. In other news, on 28 October, the government approved the 2021 draft budget, directing EUR 1.5 billion towards pandemic relief measures, while foreseeing a budget deficit of 4.4.% of GDP in 2020 and 3.9% of GDP in 2021.Bulgaria Economic Growth
In 2021, the economy is set to rebound from its coronavirus-induced contraction this year. Household and capital spending should expand solidly, while a pickup in global demand should support the external sector. Heightened general uncertainty and a prolonged health crisis pose key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 4.2% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.6% in 2022.Bulgaria Economy Data
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Bulgaria Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 0.40 | 0.0 % | Dec 31 |
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Bulgaria Economic News
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Bulgaria: Inflation returns in March
April 14, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.06% over the previous month in March, which was below the 0.61% rise recorded in February and marked the lowest reading since September last year.
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Bulgaria: Industrial output drops at faster clip in February
April 9, 2021
Industrial output fell 3.4% year-on-year in February (January: -3.2% yoy).
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Bulgaria: Consumer prices fall at softer annual rate in February
March 15, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.61% over the previous month in February, picking up from January's 0.19% increase and marking the sharpest rise in prices since October 2020.
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Bulgaria: Industrial output declines at sharper pace in January
March 10, 2021
Industrial production fell 3.4% year-on-year in January (December: -3.0% yoy).
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Bulgaria: Decline in GDP eases in Q4
March 9, 2021
GDP fell at a more moderate pace of 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2020, above the 5.2% contraction tallied in the third quarter, amid the gradual firming of activity.
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