Bulgaria Economic Outlook
February 5, 2019The economy seemed to gain traction in the final quarter of 2018, following a disappointing third quarter which saw growth slow to a near four-year low due to a plunge in exports. Industrial production growth, on average, remained modest in October–November although still above the Q3 average, pointing to somewhat more upbeat economic activity in Q4. On the demand side, although the unemployment rate inched up in the quarter, the labor market remains tight. This, together with firm wage growth and easing inflation at year-end likely buoyed private consumption in Q4, as evidenced by surging retail sales in the first two months of the quarter. Meanwhile, according to preliminary fiscal data, the double-digit annual growth in revenues in 2018 likely enabled the government to achieve a budget surplus for the third year in a row.
Bulgaria Economic GrowthGrowth is expected to remain broadly stable this year, largely driven by healthy domestic demand. Rising wages, in part influenced by planned public sector wage hikes, coupled with easing inflation should bolster private consumption. In addition, a planned increase in public infrastructure spending and improved absorption of EU structural funds are seen supporting fixed investment. Although increased export activity is also seen contributing to growth, it remains vulnerable to the effects from a global trade slowdown or waning demand from the EU and Turkey. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 3.3% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.
Bulgaria Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||0.88||0.0 %||Feb 14|
|Exchange Rate||1.74||-0.72 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||581||-0.35 %||Feb 14|
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Bulgaria Economic News
February 15, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.5% from the previous month in January, following a flat reading in December.
February 8, 2019
Industrial output declined 3.8% in working day-adjusted annual terms in December, contrasting the 1.2% year-on-year expansion logged in November and marking the sharpest contraction in five-and-a-half years.
January 15, 2019
Consumer prices remained unchanged from the previous month in December, following a 0.1% month-on-month dip in November.
January 10, 2019
Industrial output rose 1.2% in working day-adjusted annual terms in November, matching the revised 1.2% year-on-year expansion logged in October (previously reported: +1.6% year-on-year).
December 12, 2018
Consumer prices fell 0.1% from a month earlier in November, following a 0.7% month-on-month rise in October.