Economic Snapshot for South-Eastern Europe
January 12, 2021
The regional economy is set to return to growth this year, recovering from the pandemic-induced downturn. The reopening of economies is set to buttress domestic and foreign demand; however, a sluggish labor market recovery, particularly as fiscal support measures are wound down, will limit household spending. Moreover, uncertainty regarding the pandemic clouds the outlook.
SEE Monetary & Financial Sector News
Inflation in the region rose to 7.2% in November from 6.2% in October, amid a jump in price pressures in Turkey. Looking ahead, inflationary forces are set to moderate in the region on average as inflation cools in Turkey . However, elsewhere they are forecast to increase due to recovering domestic demand. Relatively low oil prices, though, will limit upward pressures.
Central Banks in the region took further action in recent weeks, albeit for varying reasons. In Turkey, the interest rate was hiked amid a deteriorating inflation outlook, while the Serbian Central Bank lowered the key rate to support activity and the Albanian counterpart stood pat. This year, monetary policy is expected to remain supportive on average.
In recent weeks, the Turkish lira regained some lost ground against the U.S. dollar amid a more orthodox policy outlook. Meanwhile, the Albanian led, Romanian leu and Serbian dinar were relatively stable against the euro. Going forward, the lira will remain under pressure in contrast to solid currency performances elsewhere in the region.
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5 years of South-Eastern Europe economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
South-Eastern Europe Economic News
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Serbia: Inflation increases in March
April 15, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.50% in March over the previous month, moderating from February's 0.60% increase.
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Bulgaria: Industrial output drops at faster clip in February
April 9, 2021
Industrial output fell 3.4% year-on-year in February (January: -3.2% yoy).
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Cyprus: Industrial output tumbles in January
April 9, 2021
Industrial production dived 6.7% year-on-year in January, contrasting December’s 1.9% expansion and logging the worst reading in five months.
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Greece: Industrial output growth gains momentum in February
April 9, 2021
Industrial output increased 4.4% year-on-year in February (January: +3.5% yoy).
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Turkey: Inflation increases to over one-year high in March
April 6, 2021
Consumer prices increased 1.08% from the previous month in March, picking up from February's 0.91% increase.
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