South Eastern Europe Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for South-Eastern Europe

January 10, 2023

Economic Growth

Regional growth will cool significantly this year. A weaker Euro Area economy, elevated inflation, geopolitical volatility and the war in Ukraine will restrain household spending, industrial production and exports. On top of this, tighter financing conditions should further subdue activity in most countries. Turkey should expand more robustly than its smaller regional peers.

Inflationary Outlook

Regional inflation declined to 48.4% in November from a serieshigh of 48.8% in October. Slightly lower inflation in Turkey drove the moderation. Inflation also decelerated in the Balkans, barring Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia. Regional inflation should ease this year, although it will remain elevated due to continued passthrough effects from high production costs.

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