South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
SEE economic growth is forecast to decelerate in 2025 vs 2024. Slowdowns in Bulgaria, Serbia, Turkey and Euro area members—chiefly on cooling household consumption—should outweigh stronger momentum in Romania and some Western Balkan economies. Global trade policies and the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East remain key factors to monitor.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
SEE inflation fell for the 13th month running in June due to sustained disinflation in heavyweight Turkey. This year, SEE inflation is expected to average its lowest since 2021, curbed by a high base of comparison, prior monetary policy tightening and lower oil prices. Unexpected currency depreciations and spikes in commodity prices pose upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.7 | 12.9 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 11.8 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 8.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.8 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -0.4 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 3.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 2.9 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.8 | -4.2 | -2.2 | -4.3 | -4.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 67.0 | 65.4 | 55.3 | 51.2 | 46.8 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.6 | 11.3 | 43.1 | 32.5 | 34.2 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 9.44 | 7.80 | 6.93 | 26.69 | 30.18 |