Economic Snapshot for South-Eastern Europe
June 9, 2020
Regional GDP is expected to contract notably this year, suppressed by the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic. The health crisis is forecast to weigh heavily on private consumption, trade and tourism. While the gradual lifting of lockdown measures should provide some respite, fiscal space to spur economic activity varies greatly across the region.
SEE Monetary & Financial Sector News
Weakened aggregate demand and low global oil prices have weighed on inflationary pressures in recent weeks, with regional inflation easing to 5.9% in April from March’s revised 6.8%. This year, regional inflation is projected to ease markedly compared to last year, as the pandemic weighs on activity, while low oil prices provide further downward pressure on prices.
Regional monetary policy continued to be loosened in recent weeks, with the Turkish, North Macedonian and Romanian central banks all cutting rates. Looking ahead, the regional interest rate is forecast to be lowered further this year as monetary authorities look to spur economic activity in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
In recent weeks, the Turkish lira strengthened against the USD due to currency swaps, while the euro also gained ground against the greenback. Against the EUR, the Albanian lek and the Romanian leu were down slightly, but the Serbian dinar was unchanged. This year, the regional exchange rate will depreciate on broad-based currency weakness.
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5 years of South-Eastern Europe economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
South-Eastern Europe Economic News
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Greece: Unemployment rate jumps in May on Covid-19 hit
August 6, 2020
The number of unemployed workers rose by 48,444 in May compared to April while the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate jumped to 17.0% from the previous month’s 15.7%, according to data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT).
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Cyprus: Consumer prices decline in annual terms for fourth consecutive month in July
August 6, 2020
Consumer prices declined 0.76% from the previous month in July, following June’s 0.42% slip.
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Romania: NBR cuts rates in August
August 5, 2020
In a meeting held on 5 August, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.50% and the lending facility (Lombard) rate by 25 basis points to 2.00%.
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Turkey: Inflation recedes in July
August 4, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.58% over the previous month in July, slowing down from the 1.13% rise recorded in June.
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Turkey: Manufacturing operating conditions improve strongly in July
August 4, 2020
Operating conditions in the Turkish manufacturing sector continued to improve at the outset of the third quarter, with the Istanbul Chamber of Industry Turkey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising from 53.9 in June to 56.9 in July, the highest print since February 2011.
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