Economic Snapshot for South-Eastern Europe
January 14, 2020
Regional economic activity is expected to accelerate notably next year
The ongoing recovery in the Turkish economy should lift regional growth into a notably higher gear this year, while still-cheap credit and a tightening labor market feeding through to wages are expected to buttress activity in the region. However, external headwinds continue to darken the horizon amid lingering trade tensions and weak momentum in the European Union.
South-Eastern Europe Monetary & Financial Sector News
Regional inflation rose to 6.5% in November from 5.2% in October as price pressures intensified in Turkey owing to a less favorable base effect; inflationary pressures remained relatively muted elsewhere. This year, inflation should soften amid lower oil prices, lower inflation in Turkey and easing domestic demand in many economies.
Regional central banks made little noise in recent weeks, except in Turkey where an improved inflation outlook drove a larger-than-expected rate cut. Relatively muted inflation and a loose stance from the ECB led other regional banks to stand pat. This year, the regional interest rate should fall as Turkey continues to loosen its stance.
Russia’s Central Bank brought its key policy rate down to a six-year low in December amid slowing inflation and frail activity growth. Furthermore, policymakers in Ukraine chopped the key interest rate for the fifth time in 2019 in the same month, although the monetary policy stance remained contractionary. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s Central Bank stayed put in December.
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5 years of South-Eastern Europe economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
South-Eastern Europe Economic News
Croatia: Inflation closes 2019 at over one-year high
January 16, 2020
Consumer prices dipped 0.1% over the prior month in December, following November’s 0.2% drop.
Turkey: Central Bank cuts policy rate in January for fifth consecutive time
January 16, 2020
At its 16 January Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Turkey’s Central Bank slashed its one-week repo rate again, this time by 75 basis points to 11.25%.
Bulgaria: Inflation at seven-year high at year-end
January 15, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.7% from the previous month in December, following November’s 0.5% rise.
Romania: Inflation edges up in December
January 15, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in December, up from November’s 0.2% uptick.
Turkey: Industrial output growth picks up pace in November
January 14, 2020
Industrial production grew a calendar-adjusted 5.1% year-on-year in November, up from October’s revised 3.9% expansion (previously reported: +3.8% year-on-year).
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