Economic Snapshot for South-Eastern Europe
October 6, 2020
Regional GDP is expected to contract notably this year, suppressed by the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic. The health crisis is forecast to weigh heavily on private consumption, trade and tourism. While the gradual lifting of lockdown measures should provide some respite, fiscal space to spur economic activity varies greatly across the region.
SEE Monetary & Financial Sector News
Weakened aggregate demand and low global oil prices have weighed on inflationary pressures in recent weeks, with regional inflation easing to 5.9% in April from March’s revised 6.8%. This year, regional inflation is projected to ease markedly compared to last year, as the pandemic weighs on activity, while low oil prices provide further downward pressure on prices.
Regional monetary policy continued to be loosened in recent weeks, with the Turkish, North Macedonian and Romanian central banks all cutting rates. Looking ahead, the regional interest rate is forecast to be lowered further this year as monetary authorities look to spur economic activity in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
In recent weeks, the Turkish lira strengthened against the USD due to currency swaps, while the euro also gained ground against the greenback. Against the EUR, the Albanian lek and the Romanian leu were down slightly, but the Serbian dinar was unchanged. This year, the regional exchange rate will depreciate on broad-based currency weakness.
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5 years of South-Eastern Europe economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
South-Eastern Europe Economic News
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Croatia: September records zero inflation, the highest reading in six months
October 16, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.88% from the previous month in September, swinging from August's 0.10% drop and marking the sharpest increase in prices since March 2019.
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Romania: Decline in industrial activity softens in August, marking best reading in six months
October 14, 2020
Industrial production slid 5.1% on a working-day and seasonally-adjusted year-on-year basis in August, a softer contraction than July’s 8.1% drop and marking the best reading since February.
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Turkey: Industrial output notches quickest growth since January 2018 in August
October 13, 2020
Industrial production expanded 10.4% year-on-year in August (July: +4.5% yoy).
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Serbia: Business confidence inches down in September but remains elevated
October 12, 2020
Consumer prices fell 0.5% month-on-month in September, down from the 0.1% drop recorded in August.
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Turkey: Current account balance falls deeper into deficit in August
October 12, 2020
The current account balance swung from a USD 3.3 billion surplus in August 2019 to a USD 4.6 billion deficit in August 2020 (July 2020: USD 1.9 billion deficit).
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