South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Mounting concerns regarding global trade led our panelists to cut their GDP forecasts further over the past month. GDP growth should fall from 2024 in 2025 as the economies of Turkey, Serbia and Euro area members cool, outweighing stronger outturns in Romania and some Western Balkan economies. Global trade policies and the conflict in Ukraine are key risk factors.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
Regional inflation fell for the eleventh month running in April as price pressures eased further across most countries. This year, inflation is seen averaging its lowest since 2021, curbed by a high base of comparison prior interest rate hikes and muted oil prices. Spikes in commodity prices and unexpected currency depreciations are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 3.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 2.8 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 11.8 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 8.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.7 | 13.0 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.8 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -0.4 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.8 | -4.2 | -2.2 | -4.3 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 67.0 | 65.4 | 55.3 | 51.2 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.6 | 11.3 | 43.1 | 32.5 | 34.2 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 9.44 | 7.80 | 6.93 | 26.69 | 30.18 |