South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
This year, GDP growth is set to be the weakest since 2020, with most economies forecast to lose steam as interest rates tighten and energy costs rise. Our panelists project an acceleration in 2027, chiefly due to Romania emerging from contraction and regional heavyweight Turkey gaining steam. A reignition of high-intensity U.S.-Iran conflict is a downside risk.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
So far in 2026, regional inflation has averaged over 30% in Turkey, nearly 10% in Romania and 2.0–5.0% elsewhere. Regional price pressures have been propped up by the surge in global energy prices. Between now and end-2027, Turkish inflation will remain far higher than elsewhere, with Romanian inflation converging toward that of the remaining SEE economies.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 10.9 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 64.4 | 54.4 | 50.3 | 45.7 | 44.8 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 11.4 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 3.4 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 7.8 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 2.3 | 6.6 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 9.8 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 10.8 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 7.8 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 7.48 | 6.72 | 25.77 | 29.15 | 23.90 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 11.4 | 43.4 | 32.7 | 34.6 | 22.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.2 | -4.2 | -4.3 | -3.1 |