South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
SEE GDP growth is projected to be slightly below 3% this year and next, above the average for Eastern Europe but below the past ten-year average. Lower interest rates and growth in tourism will support regional economic activity, while U.S. trade restrictions will be a drag. An extension of the Russia-Ukraine war to more countries is a key downside risk.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
Regional inflation declined for the 15th successive month in August as disinflation in heavyweight Turkey remained on track. Despite declining from 2024, SEE inflation is projected to average well in double digits this year and next due to high price pressures in Turkey. Inflation in the rest of the region should be relatively mild.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2025 to 2020.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 3.4 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 2.2 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -0.4 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 3.5 | 4.3 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.7 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.6 | 13.0 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.7 | -4.1 | -2.2 | -4.2 | -4.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 66.1 | 64.3 | 54.3 | 50.3 | 45.8 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 11.8 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 8.0 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 9.51 | 7.88 | 6.95 | 26.88 | 30.46 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.6 | 11.4 | 43.5 | 32.7 | 34.6 |