Economic Snapshot for South-Eastern Europe
January 12, 2021
The regional economy is set to return to growth this year, recovering from the pandemic-induced downturn. The reopening of economies is set to buttress domestic and foreign demand; however, a sluggish labor market recovery, particularly as fiscal support measures are wound down, will limit household spending. Moreover, uncertainty regarding the pandemic clouds the outlook.
SEE Monetary & Financial Sector News
Inflation in the region rose to 7.2% in November from 6.2% in October, amid a jump in price pressures in Turkey. Looking ahead, inflationary forces are set to moderate in the region on average as inflation cools in Turkey . However, elsewhere they are forecast to increase due to recovering domestic demand. Relatively low oil prices, though, will limit upward pressures.
Central Banks in the region took further action in recent weeks, albeit for varying reasons. In Turkey, the interest rate was hiked amid a deteriorating inflation outlook, while the Serbian Central Bank lowered the key rate to support activity and the Albanian counterpart stood pat. This year, monetary policy is expected to remain supportive on average.
In recent weeks, the Turkish lira regained some lost ground against the U.S. dollar amid a more orthodox policy outlook. Meanwhile, the Albanian led, Romanian leu and Serbian dinar were relatively stable against the euro. Going forward, the lira will remain under pressure in contrast to solid currency performances elsewhere in the region.
5 years of South-Eastern Europe economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
South-Eastern Europe Economic News
January 26, 2021
Business confidence rose to a 32-month high of 107.0 in January from December's 106.8.
January 22, 2021
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Turkey stood pat at its first meeting of the year on 21 January, leaving the one-week repo rate at 17.00%.
January 20, 2021
Turkey’s current account recorded a USD 4.1 billion deficit in November (November 2019: USD 0.0 billion; October 2019: USD -0.3 billion).
January 15, 2021
Consumer prices dropped 0.58% from the previous month in December, following November’s 0.29% drop and logging the sharpest fall in prices since January 2019.
January 15, 2021
The number of unemployed workers increased by 287 in October 2020 compared to September, while the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate came in at 16.7%, matching September´s upwardly revised reading (previously reported: 16.1%), as well as October 2019’s result of 16.7%.
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