South-Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
This year, SEE economic growth is projected to remain near 2024’s rate. Turkey and Euro area members are forecast to lose steam on softer private consumption growth. Nonetheless, other economies in the region will gain traction amid interest rate cuts and healthier EU demand. Global trade policies and the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine are key factors to track.
South-Eastern Europe Inflation
SEE inflation cooled in February on weaker price pressures in Turkey and among Euro area members. Our Consensus is for inflation to continue to fall in the coming quarters and average below last year’s level in 2025 due to past rate hikes and a high base effect. Commodity price spikes and greater global trade protectionism pose upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for South-Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 11.8 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 8.6 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.8 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -0.4 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 3.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 2.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.7 | 13.0 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.8 | -4.2 | -2.2 | -4.3 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 67.0 | 65.4 | 55.3 | 51.2 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.6 | 11.3 | 43.1 | 32.5 | 34.2 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 9.44 | 7.80 | 6.93 | 26.69 | 30.18 |