Netherlands Economic Forecast

Netherlands Economic Outlook

December 23, 2021

After cooling growth in Q3, prospects appear dimmer still in Q4. Surging Covid-19 cases in November led to fresh restrictions on activity, and the arrival of Omicron led to a further intensification of lockdown measures in December. Along with soaring inflation and plummeting consumer confidence through November, this has likely hit private consumption. Meanwhile, the virus has likely also dented the external sector by worsening supply disruptions and dampening demand abroad. Indeed, the manufacturing PMI was down in November, partly on slower export growth. In politics, a coalition government was finally formed in December, with Mark Rutte continuing as prime minister. The coalition signals a move away from the frugality of past governments, amid significant planned spending increases in areas including emissions reduction, housing and childcare; This should boost growth ahead.

Netherlands Economic Growth

Growth is set to ease next year on a waning base effect, and the Omicron variant and resultant restrictions will likely drag on momentum in Q1. However, booster vaccinations, antiviral drugs and natural immunity should lead to strong consumption growth later in the year amid healthy savings pots. Further restrictions remain a significant risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy expanding 3.4% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2023.

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Netherlands Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield-0.065.70 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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