Netherlands Economic Forecast

Netherlands Economic Outlook

November 21, 2017

The great economic run in recent months appears to have abated in the third quarter: Economic growth slowed in both annual and quarter-on-quarter terms, although year-on-year growth was still solid. The slowdown is likely linked to the prolonged political uncertainty around the makeup of the new cabinet, as indicators suggest that the final quarter of the year picked back up. The manufacturing PMI reached its second-highest reading in the history of the survey in October, as business conditions marked the 51st consecutive month of improvements. New export orders remained at historically high levels, which indicates solid overseas demand for Dutch goods. However, business confidence slipped in October over less positive views on future output. Nonetheless, private consumption is expected to pick up through year-end; retail trade grew robustly in September in monthly and yearly terms, underpinned by strong labor market dynamics.

Netherlands Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to be robust next year on the back of a strong external sector and buoyant domestic demand, aided by fiscal stimulus measures. Private consumption, a mainstay of the Dutch economy, is expected to grow healthily going forward as the income tax burden is relieved. A strong euro could, however, drag on export growth. The economy is also vulnerable to the effects of Brexit. FocusEconomics panelists foresee GDP growing 2.2% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 1.8% in 2019.

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Netherlands Facts

Bond Yield0.385.70 %Oct 18
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %Dec 06
Stock Market543-0.57 %Dec 06

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