Netherlands Economic Forecast

Netherlands Economic Outlook

May 31, 2022

The Dutch economy made a hesitant start to the year, with growth evaporating on the back of falling household consumption and moderating investment growth. During the second quarter, the data points to a two-speed economy. On one hand, business confidence rose to its highest level since November 2021 in April, while the manufacturing PMI showed that operating conditions continued to improve during the month. On the other hand, consumer sentiment deteriorated significantly during April and May, with inflation remaining in double digits during April. This is likely to constrain household spending during the quarter, despite a further tightening of the labor market in April. Meanwhile, the European Commission recently listed tax distortions, the housing market, the pension system and the green-energy transition as key issues for the government to address.

Netherlands Economic Growth

Economic growth will lose steam this year due to the impact of the war in Ukraine on sentiment, inflation and supply chains. Covid-19 lockdowns in China will put additional stress on supply chains and undermine export demand. However, robust fixed investment and a tight labor market, coupled with excess savings, should provide some support for growth. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy expanding 3.0% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% in 2023.

Netherlands Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)16.917.017.117.217.2
GDP per capita (EUR)40,82741,71943,21245,05247,049
GDP (EUR bn)690708738774811
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.02.22.92.61.8
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)6.9-0.72.32.12.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.01.12.12.31.4
Investment (annual variation in %)29.2-7.34.23.25.3
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)7.41.76.53.72.4
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)14.5-2.06.23.33.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-3.41.31.40.6-0.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)2.61.93.02.92.4
Unemployment Rate6.96.04.93.83.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.00.01.31.41.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)64.661.956.952.448.6
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)0.50.71.21.82.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.20.11.31.62.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-5.0-2.54.83.00.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)4.19.412.7-10.423.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)6.28.010.810.8-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)43.457.179.984.283.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)46.854.358.556.656.4

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Netherlands Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield-0.065.70 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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