Netherlands Economic Outlook
September 1, 2020The economy contracted steeply in Q2 due to the Covid-19 pandemic and associated restrictions dragging heavily on both domestic and foreign demand. Consequently, the economy entered its first recession since H2 2012. National accounts data showed that the downturn was broad-based, although private consumption and capital expenditure fell particularly hard. Turning to the third quarter, the economy is expected to exit the recession as containment measures have been eased, but available data paints a mixed picture. In July, operating conditions in the manufacturing sector continued to deteriorate, albeit at a reduced pace, while business confidence rose but remained deeply pessimistic. Moreover, consumer sentiment deteriorated in July–August compared to the prior quarter’s average, amid a further uptick in the unemployment rate in July.
Netherlands Economic GrowthThe steepest economic recession since World War II is expected for this year. The Covid-19 pandemic and containment measures will drag on trade and manufacturing, while the services sector is set to suffer amid weak sentiment and softer aggregate demand. However, fiscal stimulus should cushion the fall somewhat. A recent surge in cases poses a downside risk. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project the economy to contract 5.5% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growing 4.0% in 2021.
Netherlands Economy Data
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Netherlands Economic News
September 2, 2020
Operating conditions in the manufacturing sector improved for the first time since the outset of the Covid-19 crisis, with the NEVI manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 52.3 in August from 47.9 in July.
August 28, 2020
Business confidence rose to minus 5.4 in August from July's minus 8.7.
August 20, 2020
Consumer confidence fell to minus 29.0 in August from July's minus 26.0.
August 14, 2020
GDP fell 8.5% quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally-adjusted basis in Q2 (Q1: -1.5% qoqsa), with the economy entering recession for the first time since the second half of 2012.
Netherlands: Manufacturing operating conditions continue to deteriorate in July albeit at a softer pace
August 3, 2020
Operating conditions in the Dutch manufacturing sector continued deteriorating at the start of the third quarter, with the NEVI Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) coming in at 47.9 in July.