Netherlands Economic Forecast

Netherlands Economic Outlook

August 31, 2021

The economy grew at a record pace in the second quarter, rebounding from the first quarter’s contraction. Private consumption expanded amid the reopening of the economy, while public spending also rose and exports of goods and services increased at a quicker rate. Turning to the third quarter, manufacturing operating conditions remained well within expansionary territory in July, while business confidence rose to a record high in the same month. While this suggests that momentum continued to build at the outset of the period, economic activity will be weighed on by the reintroduction of Covid-19 restrictions until at least 19 September and labor supply issues; the unemployment rate dropped to a 16-month low in July amid firms’ reporting difficulty in filling vacancies.

Netherlands Economic Growth

The economy will return to growth this year amid firming domestic and foreign demand as measures to curb the spread of Covid-19 are gradually lifted thanks to the vaccine rollout. That said, supply-side constraints could weigh on activity, while the rollback of fiscal support measures and cautionary consumer saving pose additional downside risks. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy expanding 3.1% in 2021, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and 3.3% in 2022.

Netherlands Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)16.917.017.117.217.2
GDP per capita (EUR)40,82741,71943,21245,05247,049
GDP (EUR bn)690708738774811
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.02.22.92.61.8
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)6.9-0.72.32.12.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.01.12.12.31.4
Investment (annual variation in %)29.2-7.34.23.25.3
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)7.41.76.53.72.4
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)14.5-2.06.23.33.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-3.41.31.40.6-0.9
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)2.61.93.02.92.4
Unemployment Rate6.96.04.93.83.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.00.01.31.41.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)64.661.956.952.448.6
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)0.50.71.21.82.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.20.11.31.62.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-5.0-2.54.83.00.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)4.19.412.7-10.423.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)6.28.010.810.8-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)43.457.179.984.283.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)46.854.358.556.656.4

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Netherlands Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield-0.065.70 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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