Netherlands Economic Forecast

Netherlands Economic Outlook

January 30, 2018

A second GDP release for Q3 confirmed what was likely a temporary slowdown in growth momentum following a stellar performance in the prior quarter. However, private consumption remained solid amid ongoing employment gains, while fixed investment rebounded. Indicators for Q4 suggest that the momentum again picked up pace. Both household spending and fixed investment continued to grow in October and November on an annual basis. Manufacturing production and exports also recorded positive readings in the same months. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI averaged higher in Q4 than in Q3, indicating that the momentum is expected to carry over into Q1 2018. Business and consumer confidence levels remained elevated, and consumer optimism is likely linked to decreasing unemployment. Unemployment continued to decline throughout the quarter, reaching in December the lowest level since June 2009.

Netherlands Economic Growth

Domestic demand should help drive growth this year as private consumption and fixed investment continue to perform robustly. Household spending will likely receive a boost from the government’s fiscal stimulus plan, while capacity tightness should drive wage growth as unemployment hovers at a multi-year low. Downside risks to the outlook persist, however, in a strong euro, which could restrain Dutch exports. FocusEconomics panelists foresee GDP growing 2.5% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 2.1% in 2019.

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Netherlands Facts

Bond Yield0.785.70 %Feb 21
Exchange Rate1.230.65 %Feb 22
Stock Market533-0.57 %Feb 22

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