Netherlands Economic Forecast

Netherlands Economic Outlook

July 23, 2019

Economic growth in the second quarter is likely to have remained largely on par with that of the first quarter. Merchandise export growth shifted into a higher gear in April–May compared to the first quarter, defying slowing global trade and momentum. Moreover, judging by available data and the tightening labor market, private consumption was likely robust in the second quarter. In April, household expenditure grew at the quickest pace so far this year on strong durable goods purchases and robust spending on services. Furthermore, retail sales growth gathered speed in April–May; however, expenditure likely eased in June despite consumer sentiment returning to neutral territory. In further bad news, industrial production languished in April and May, manufacturing PMI data shows growth weakened in the quarter as a whole, and business confidence dropped to a near three-year low in June.

Netherlands Economic Growth

The economy is expected to cool somewhat this year amid easing private consumption, in part related to inflation outpacing wage growth, while ongoing trade tensions and Brexit uncertainty will weigh on exports. On the other hand, fiscal expansion and a firmer labor market should somewhat cushion the effects of stronger price pressures. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts panelists expect the economy to grow 1.6% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% in 2020.

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Netherlands Facts

Bond Yield-0.295.70 %Jul 30
Exchange Rate1.110.65 %Jul 31
Stock Market572-0.57 %Jul 31

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