Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

June 30, 2020

The economy has most likely entered recession in the second quarter, after GDP contracted at the sharpest pace in seven years in the first quarter. Supply-side disruptions prompted by the health crisis are dealing a shocking blow to the country’s industrial sector: Overall production plummeted in April as output in the all-important car industry plunged by nearly 80%, while May is likely to post a similar downturn amid markedly negative business sentiment. On the expenditure side, social distancing measures will have ravaged household consumption in the quarter: Retail sales dropped at a record pace in April, while consumer sentiment crashed to a fresh low in Q2. Meanwhile, on 12 June, Standard & Poor’s confirmed Slovenia’s AA- rating with a stable outlook, lauding the country’s low external debt levels and pro-growth policies.

Slovenia Economic Growth

The export-oriented economy is set to contract this year as Covid-19 takes its toll. Capital spending will decline amid deteriorating sentiment and heightened uncertainties, with the automotive industry being particularly hard hit. In addition, exports are set to slump on downbeat European demand and falling tourist arrivals. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to contract 7.6% in 2020, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, they see it expanding 5.0%.

Slovenia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (EUR)18,83219,55920,80822,12323,204
GDP (EUR bn)38.940.443.045.848.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.14.84.12.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.14.52.02.82.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.2-3.710.49.13.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.66.67.75.13.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.14.47.44.63.4
Unemployment Rate9.08.06.65.14.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.8-1.90.00.70.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)82.678.774.170.466.1
Money (annual variation in %)5.07.76.67.47.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.50.51.81.41.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.8-0.21.61.91.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.2-1.42.22.10.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)3.84.86.36.16.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.51.92.72.83.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)1.51.51.61.31.3
Exports (EUR billion)24.025.028.430.832.0
Imports (EUR billion)22.623.526.829.530.7
Exports (annual variation in %)4.74.013.58.63.8
Imports (annual variation in %)3.64.014.110.43.8

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Slovenia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.30-0.79 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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