Slovenia Economic Outlook
October 27, 2020The economy likely contracted at a slower pace in annual terms in Q3, as the impact of the pandemic lessened. Data for July–August shows that conditions were less downbeat: Both industrial production and retail sales decreased at a milder pace compared to Q2’s average. Turning to Q4, a surge in Covid-19 cases led to new restrictions in October, which are likely to hamper the recovery. In other news, in early October Moody’s upgraded Slovenia’s sovereign rating to A3, citing fiscal prudence in the past four years and a healthier banking sector. The move bodes well for credit conditions and could aid the government in financing next year’s budget deficit. Meanwhile, the draft 2021 budget submitted to the European Commission in October sees higher expenditure on public investment and the wage bill, and cuts to most other spending areas. The fiscal shortfall is predicted to remain sizable.
Slovenia Economic GrowthGDP is seen recovering from the pandemic’s fallout in 2021 on the back of rebounding private spending amid an improving labor market, and recovering exports. However, the recent flare-up in Covid-19 cases throughout Europe raises uncertainty, posing a downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to expand 5.0% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2022, the economy is seen growing 3.3%.
Slovenia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||0.30||-0.79 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||1.12||0.65 %||Dec 31|
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Slovenia Economic News
December 10, 2020
Industrial output declined 1.0% in October (September: -3.3% yoy).
November 30, 2020
GDP declined 2.6% on an annual basis in the third quarter, softening significantly from the second quarter’s 13.0% drop, as Covid-19 restrictions were eased. Household spending fell 0.9% in Q3 (Q2: -17.4% yoy), while fixed investment dropped 1.8% (Q2: -14.2% yoy) in the same period.
November 30, 2020
Consumer prices fell a seasonally-adjusted 0.76% in November over the previous month, contrasting the 0.31% increase logged in October.
November 10, 2020
Industrial output dropped 3.6% year-on-year in September (August: -1.5% yoy).
October 30, 2020
Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.31% in October over the previous month, swinging from September's 0.39% fall.