Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

January 29, 2019

After a vigorous quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3, the economy seems to have closed the year on a strong footing, fueled by buoyant domestic activity. Retail sales soared in the October-November period, on the back of subdued inflationary pressures and a tighter labor market. Meanwhile, capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector recorded a notable high in the same period, despite somewhat weaker industrial production. Against this backdrop, fixed investment is likely to have remained robust in the fourth quarter, as optimistic businesses benefited from favorable financing conditions. Moreover, sustained expenditure from EU structural funds are also seen supporting near-term investment. On the downside, the external sector appears to have shifted into a lower gear in Q4, after more than a year of double-digit growth.

Slovenia Economic Growth

Looking ahead, growth is set to moderate slightly this year, with a broad-base deceleration across the Eurozone expected to weigh further on exports. In a similar vein, fixed investment is also seen moderating. On a brighter note, private consumption is set to gain traction this year underpinned by recent wage and pension hikes, lower unemployment and steady inflation. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP will expand 3.5% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, before slowing to 2.9% in 2020.

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Slovenia Facts

Bond Yield1.10-0.79 %Jan 30
Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Jan 30
Stock Market840-0.30 %Jan 30

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