Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

September 28, 2021

The second quarter saw rapid growth, with GDP eclipsing its pre-pandemic levels. Soaring private consumption and fixed investment growth spearheaded the upturn, with public consumption and exports also contributing. A sizable expansion in imports, amid strong domestic demand, dented the overall figure somewhat. This came amid the gradual lifting of restrictions and the dropping of the state of emergency in mid-June. That said, conditions in Q3 appear less promising: Retail sales growth slowed in July and consumer and business confidence slipped throughout Q3 from their end-Q2 levels. Moreover, Covid-19 cases rose in August, with the vaccination rate below the EU average. That said, on 13 September the government said it would require people to have a negative test or proof of antibodies or vaccination to enter indoor spaces, which should spur vaccinations ahead.

Slovenia Economic Growth

The economy is on track to expand robustly this year and in 2022, as private consumption grows strongly, supported by government stimulus and looser restrictions. EU recovery funds should provide further stimulus. That said, a weak vaccination campaign adds uncertainty to the outlook ahead. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to expand 5.4% in 2021. In 2022, the economy is seen growing 4.1%, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Slovenia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (EUR)18,83219,55920,80822,12323,204
GDP (EUR bn)38.940.443.045.848.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.14.84.12.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.14.52.02.82.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.2-3.710.49.13.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.66.67.75.13.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.14.47.44.63.4
Unemployment Rate9.08.06.65.14.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.8-1.90.00.70.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)82.678.774.170.466.1
Money (annual variation in %)5.07.76.67.47.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.50.51.81.41.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.8-0.21.61.91.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.2-1.42.22.10.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)3.84.86.36.16.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.51.92.72.83.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)1.51.51.61.31.3
Exports (EUR billion)24.025.028.430.832.0
Imports (EUR billion)22.623.526.829.530.7
Exports (annual variation in %)4.74.013.58.63.8
Imports (annual variation in %)3.64.014.110.43.8

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Slovenia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.30-0.79 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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