Slovenia Economic Outlook
June 30, 2020The economy has most likely entered recession in the second quarter, after GDP contracted at the sharpest pace in seven years in the first quarter. Supply-side disruptions prompted by the health crisis are dealing a shocking blow to the country’s industrial sector: Overall production plummeted in April as output in the all-important car industry plunged by nearly 80%, while May is likely to post a similar downturn amid markedly negative business sentiment. On the expenditure side, social distancing measures will have ravaged household consumption in the quarter: Retail sales dropped at a record pace in April, while consumer sentiment crashed to a fresh low in Q2. Meanwhile, on 12 June, Standard & Poor’s confirmed Slovenia’s AA- rating with a stable outlook, lauding the country’s low external debt levels and pro-growth policies.
Slovenia Economic GrowthThe export-oriented economy is set to contract this year as Covid-19 takes its toll. Capital spending will decline amid deteriorating sentiment and heightened uncertainties, with the automotive industry being particularly hard hit. In addition, exports are set to slump on downbeat European demand and falling tourist arrivals. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to contract 7.6% in 2020, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, they see it expanding 5.0%.
Slovenia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||0.30||-0.79 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||1.12||0.65 %||Dec 31|
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Slovenia Economic News
July 10, 2020
Industrial production slid 16.9% year-on-year in May (April: -22.8% yoy).
June 30, 2020
Consumer prices increased 1.29% in June over the last month, accelerating from May's 0.87% rise.
June 10, 2020
Industrial output fell 22.8% year-on-year in April (March: -7.6% yoy).
May 29, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.9% over the previous month in May, after decreasing 0.9% in April.
May 29, 2020
GDP shrank 2.3% on an annual basis in the first quarter, contrasting Q4 2019’s 1.7% expansion and marking the sharpest contraction since Q1 2013. Household spending plunged 6.4% in Q1, marking the fastest drop in seven years (Q4 2019: +1.2% year-on-year).