Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

May 5, 2020

Available data suggests that the economy contracted in the first quarter, battered by the Covid-19 pandemic. Retail trade plunged at the fastest pace in over a decade in March and consumer sentiment soured, hinting at a downturn in private consumption. Moreover, dislocated supply chains and a particularly hard-hit automotive sector likely took a toll on fixed investment and exports. That said, the brunt of the crisis is likely to be felt in the second quarter as prolonged social distancing measures weigh on economic activity; business and consumer sentiment collapsed to a record low in April. Meanwhile, the government approved a second stimulus package worth EUR 2 billion (about 4.5% of GDP) on 22 April, which provides loan guarantees to businesses. Later in the month, authorities began gradually easing lockdown conditions, allowing some businesses to reopen.

Slovenia Economic Growth

The export-oriented economy is set to contract this year as Covid-19 takes its toll. Capital spending will likely decline amid deteriorating sentiment and heightened uncertainties in the all-important automotive sector. In addition, exports are likely to slump on muted European demand and falling tourist arrivals. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to contract 7.4% in 2020, which is down 5.0 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, the see it expanding 5.3%.

Slovenia Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (EUR)18,24418,83219,55920,80822,123
GDP (EUR bn)37.638.940.443.045.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.02.23.14.84.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.92.14.52.33.4
Investment (annual variation in %)1.0-1.2-3.710.49.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.75.07.78.45.0
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.01.14.47.44.6
Unemployment Rate9.79.08.06.65.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-2.8-1.90.00.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)80.482.678.774.170.4
Money (annual variation in %)6.75.07.76.67.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.1-0.50.51.81.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.4-0.8-0.21.61.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.6-0.2-1.42.22.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)5.13.84.86.15.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.91.51.92.62.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)1.21.51.51.61.1
Exports (EUR billion)23.024.025.028.531.1
Imports (EUR billion)21.822.623.526.930.0
Exports (annual variation in %)5.94.74.014.09.3
Imports (annual variation in %)3.83.64.014.711.5

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Slovenia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.30-0.79 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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