Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

January 30, 2018

The latest data for the final quarter points to solid growth at the close of the year, making Slovenia one of the Eurozone’s top performers in 2017. Growth in industrial production was strong in November, albeit moderating slightly from October’s 10-month high. Retail sales also picked up in the month. Consumer confidence entered positive territory for the first time in the survey’s history in October, and business confidence rose to a multi-year high in the quarter. Incoming data for January hints at brighter growth prospects: Consumer confidence continued to improve, shooting up to a new record high, and business sentiment climbed to the highest level since July 2007. However, discontent has been brewing among public sector workers regarding the limited magnitude of wage hikes, despite the economic gains yielded this year. This led an estimated 30,000 public servants to take to the streets in a one-day strike on 24 January to demand higher wages.

Slovenia Economic Growth

Economic growth is set to remain healthy this year thanks to healthy growth in exports but is expected to moderate from 2017 due to an anticipated slowdown in investment. As part of the ongoing privatization drive, the government will be selling the country’s biggest state-owned bank, Nova Ljubljanska Banka, this year after missing the 2017 deadline set by the EU. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy will grow 3.6% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. The panel projects GDP growth of 3.0% in 2019.

Slovenia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (EUR)17,51817,44518,11318,69619,268
GDP (EUR bn)36.035.937.338.639.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-2.7-1.13.12.32.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.4-4.11.90.42.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.83.21.41.0-3.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.8-0.91.75.27.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-2.3-3.70.01.04.5
Unemployment Rate8.910.29.79.08.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-15.1-5.4-2.9-1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.971.080.983.179.7
Money (annual variation in %)-1.0-1.36.75.07.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.70.70.1-0.50.5
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)2.81.90.4-0.8-0.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)0.90.0-0.6-0.2-1.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.750.250.05-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.321.381.21-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.291.331.33-  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)2.64.86.24.45.3
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.91.72.31.72.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)0.00.71.21.41.5
Exports (EUR billion)21.321.723.024.025.0
Imports (EUR billion)21.321.021.822.623.5
Exports (annual variation in %)1.41.96.04.34.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.2-1.43.83.74.0

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Slovenia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.31-0.79 %Feb 20
Exchange Rate1.230.65 %Feb 20
Stock Market819-0.30 %Feb 20

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