Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

February 4, 2020

Annual growth likely picked up in the fourth quarter of last year, after decelerating to a four-year low in the third quarter amid slowing fixed investment. Although ebbing merchandise exports growth in October–November suggest that sluggish external conditions likely persisted in Q4, the domestic backdrop showed signs of improvement. A fall in the unemployment rate in Q4 and soaring wage growth in November point to upbeat private consumption. That said, slowing industrial production in October–November and downbeat business confidence through the quarter indicate that fixed investment growth eased. Meanwhile, in politics, Prime Minister Marjan Sarec unexpectedly stepped down on 27 January, citing lack of parliamentary support for his minority government. Although Slovenia’s fractured Parliament will have a chance to negotiate a new coalition government in the upcoming months, a snap election remains the most likely scenario.

Slovenia Economic Growth

Growth is seen broadly stable this year. Reduced absorption of EU funds and lower levels of capacity utilization may curb fixed investment growth, while the government’s tight fiscal stance is set to drag on overall growth. Nevertheless, healthy private consumption growth should support the expansion. Exports growth may edgie down amid the challenging European backdrop. FocusEconomics analysts project growth of 2.6% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2021.

Slovenia Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (EUR)18,24418,83719,55420,81322,220
GDP (EUR bn)37.638.940.443.046.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.02.33.14.94.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.92.34.01.92.2
Investment (annual variation in %)1.0-1.6-3.710.710.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.75.17.78.45.0
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.01.14.47.44.6
Unemployment Rate9.79.08.06.65.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-2.8-1.90.00.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)80.482.678.774.170.1
Money (annual variation in %)6.75.07.76.67.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.1-0.50.51.81.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.4-0.8-0.21.61.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.6-0.2-1.42.22.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)5.13.84.86.15.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.91.51.92.62.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)1.21.51.51.61.1
Exports (EUR billion)23.024.025.028.531.1
Imports (EUR billion)21.822.623.526.930.0
Exports (annual variation in %)5.94.74.014.09.3
Imports (annual variation in %)3.83.64.014.711.5

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Slovenia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.30-0.79 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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