Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

September 29, 2020

The economy entered recession in Q2 as the pandemic took its toll on activity. A contraction in domestic demand led the downfall, with household consumption and investment both collapsing, while exports also took a hit as containment measures suppressed demand abroad. Turning to Q3, industrial production showed signs of recovery as it declined at a softer rate in July, while the unemployment rate inched down in the same month, signaling a gradually improving labor market. In addition, business confidence and economic sentiment both improved significantly in July–August. However, consumer confidence deteriorated slightly in September, as households turned more pessimistic over their financial situation for the next 12 months, likely in part due to a surge in Covid-19 cases in recent weeks, which risks a snapback of restrictions.

Slovenia Economic Growth

GDP is seen shrinking markedly this year due to the fallout from the health crisis. In 2021, the economy should recover as demand both at home and abroad improves. Potential new virus flare-ups, leading to further restrictions, cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to contract 7.9% in 2020. In 2021, they see GDP expanding 5.2%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Slovenia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (EUR)18,83219,55920,80822,12323,204
GDP (EUR bn)38.940.443.045.848.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.14.84.12.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.14.52.02.82.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.2-3.710.49.13.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.66.67.75.13.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.14.47.44.63.4
Unemployment Rate9.08.06.65.14.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.8-1.90.00.70.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)82.678.774.170.466.1
Money (annual variation in %)5.07.76.67.47.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.50.51.81.41.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.8-0.21.61.91.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.2-1.42.22.10.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)3.84.86.36.16.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.51.92.72.83.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)1.51.51.61.31.3
Exports (EUR billion)24.025.028.430.832.0
Imports (EUR billion)22.623.526.829.530.7
Exports (annual variation in %)4.74.013.58.63.8
Imports (annual variation in %)3.64.014.110.43.8

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Slovenia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.30-0.79 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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