Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

November 21, 2017

The economy remains among the top performers in the Euro area at the outset of Q4, after annual GDP growth shot up to pre-crisis levels in H1. In October, industrial production growth edged up as exports continued to rise at a double-digit pace. Favorable economic prospects lifted the consumer confidence indicator out of pessimistic territory in October for the first time since the survey was launched in January 2005, despite a slowdown in retail sales in September. Business confidence also climbed to an over ten-year high in October. A higher collection of tax revenues and reduced expenditures in the January–October period swung the government budget to surplus. In the World Bank’s annual Doing Business report, published on 31 October, Slovenia was cited as having achieved notable improvement in access to credit, which should help it become a bigger magnet for foreign investment. Moreover, on 9 November, the European Commission revised Slovenia’s growth forecast up markedly for this year and next.

Slovenia Economic Growth

Higher investment, solid growth in exports, and robust private consumption aided by a healthier labor market and rising wages should keep the economy on track next year. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy will grow 3.3% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. The panel expects the economy to expand 2.9% in 2019.

Slovenia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (EUR)17,51817,44518,11318,69619,268
GDP (EUR bn)36.035.937.338.639.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-2.7-1.13.12.32.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)-2.4-4.11.90.42.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.83.21.41.0-3.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.8-0.91.75.27.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-2.3-3.70.01.04.5
Unemployment Rate8.910.29.79.08.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-15.1-5.4-2.9-1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.971.080.983.179.7
Money (annual variation in %)-1.0-1.36.75.07.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.70.70.1-0.50.5
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)2.81.90.4-0.8-0.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)0.90.0-0.6-0.2-1.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.750.250.05-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.321.381.21-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.291.331.33-  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)2.64.86.24.45.3
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.91.72.31.72.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)0.00.71.21.41.5
Exports (EUR billion)21.321.723.024.025.0
Imports (EUR billion)21.321.021.822.623.5
Exports (annual variation in %)1.41.96.04.34.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.2-1.43.83.74.0

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Slovenia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.68-0.79 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %Dec 06
Stock Market773-0.30 %Dec 06

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