Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

October 27, 2020

The economy likely contracted at a slower pace in annual terms in Q3, as the impact of the pandemic lessened. Data for July–August shows that conditions were less downbeat: Both industrial production and retail sales decreased at a milder pace compared to Q2’s average. Turning to Q4, a surge in Covid-19 cases led to new restrictions in October, which are likely to hamper the recovery. In other news, in early October Moody’s upgraded Slovenia’s sovereign rating to A3, citing fiscal prudence in the past four years and a healthier banking sector. The move bodes well for credit conditions and could aid the government in financing next year’s budget deficit. Meanwhile, the draft 2021 budget submitted to the European Commission in October sees higher expenditure on public investment and the wage bill, and cuts to most other spending areas. The fiscal shortfall is predicted to remain sizable.

Slovenia Economic Growth

GDP is seen recovering from the pandemic’s fallout in 2021 on the back of rebounding private spending amid an improving labor market, and recovering exports. However, the recent flare-up in Covid-19 cases throughout Europe raises uncertainty, posing a downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to expand 5.0% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2022, the economy is seen growing 3.3%.

Slovenia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (EUR)18,83219,55920,80822,12323,204
GDP (EUR bn)38.940.443.045.848.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.14.84.12.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.14.52.02.82.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.2-3.710.49.13.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.66.67.75.13.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.14.47.44.63.4
Unemployment Rate9.08.06.65.14.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.8-1.90.00.70.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)82.678.774.170.466.1
Money (annual variation in %)5.07.76.67.47.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.50.51.81.41.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.8-0.21.61.91.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.2-1.42.22.10.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)3.84.86.36.16.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.51.92.72.83.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)1.51.51.61.31.3
Exports (EUR billion)24.025.028.430.832.0
Imports (EUR billion)22.623.526.829.530.7
Exports (annual variation in %)4.74.013.58.63.8
Imports (annual variation in %)3.64.014.110.43.8

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Slovenia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.30-0.79 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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