Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

December 23, 2021

Growth slowed considerably in Q3, on the back of weaker growth in private consumption, fixed investment and exports. Momentum was likely dulled by rising Covid-19 cases from September amid relatively low vaccination coverage, as well as supply bottlenecks affecting the country’s auto industry. Turning to Q4, prospects appear to be dimmer still: A rocketing Covid-19 caseload and the arrival of the Omicron variant forced tighter restrictions in November–December. Together with falling consumer confidence and rising inflation through November, this has likely dented private consumption. Nonetheless, Covid-19 cases have fallen since mid-November, removing the need for a full lockdown and thus limiting the damage to the recovery done by the virus this quarter. Moreover, the government proposed new stimulus measures in November, which should offer some support to spending.

Slovenia Economic Growth

Growth should ease next year on a fading base effect, although strong private consumption as vaccination coverage expands should provide some support. Meanwhile, easing supply constraints should aid the external sector. However, the Omicron variant poses a major risk, as does next year’s election, with the prime minister’s party potentially struggling to form a government. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to expand 4.0% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the economy is seen growing 3.4%.

Slovenia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (EUR)18,83219,55920,80822,12323,204
GDP (EUR bn)38.940.443.045.848.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.14.84.12.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.14.52.02.82.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.2-3.710.49.13.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.66.67.75.13.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)1.14.47.44.63.4
Unemployment Rate9.08.06.65.14.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.8-1.90.00.70.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)82.678.774.170.466.1
Money (annual variation in %)5.07.76.67.47.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.50.51.81.41.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-0.8-0.21.61.91.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-0.2-1.42.22.10.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)3.84.86.36.16.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.51.92.72.83.2
Trade Balance (EUR billion)1.51.51.61.31.3
Exports (EUR billion)24.025.028.430.832.0
Imports (EUR billion)22.623.526.829.530.7
Exports (annual variation in %)4.74.013.58.63.8
Imports (annual variation in %)3.64.014.110.43.8

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Slovenia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.30-0.79 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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