Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

June 26, 2018

The latest data shows that Slovenia remained among the Eurozone’s fastest-growing economies in the first quarter, albeit losing speed from the previous quarter. GDP grew 4.6% year-on-year in Q1, moderating from the 6.0% rise recorded in Q4. Growth was supported by a rapid upturn in domestic demand, underpinned by robust fixed investment growth. A weaker climb in exports, however, caused the economy to lose stride. Available data for the outset of the second quarter was less upbeat: Retail sales contracted in April despite rising average net earnings, while consumer confidence and business sentiment lost ground in the following month. Meanwhile, uncertainties on the political front prevail as the parliamentary election held on 3 June failed to deliver a clear outcome, denting Slovenian bond prices. While the center-right Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) won the most number of seats, it will likely struggle to capture sufficient parliamentary support to head the next government. Coalition talks are currently underway.

Slovenia Economic Growth

Economic growth is set to remain strong this year, supported by healthy domestic demand and robust exports. Structural changes in the labor market should drive a tepid upturn in private consumption against a backdrop of subdued inflation. That said, slow-paced reforms to restructure state-owned enterprises are likely to restrain the pace of expansion. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP will expand a buoyant 4.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. Growth is seen moderating to 3.5% in 2019.

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Slovenia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield0.93-0.79 %Jul 13
Exchange Rate1.170.65 %Jul 13
Stock Market889-0.30 %Jul 13

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