Slovenia Economic Forecast

Slovenia Economic Outlook

August 27, 2019

The economy maintained a firm pace of expansion in the second quarter on a resilient external sector, defying the slowdown gripping the Eurozone. Exports kept pace from Q1 on strong overseas sales to non-EU countries, which compensated for the downturn in exports to trading partners in the Euro area. Moreover, buoyant tourist arrivals supported export growth in the quarter. On the other hand, domestic demand metrics showed signs of a further slowdown in Q2. Retail sales decelerated throughout the quarter, which, coupled with a fall in consumer confidence, signals private consumption lost steam in the period despite some employment gains. In addition, a drop in business confidence in the quarter hints that fixed investment growth lost ground from the first quarter.

Slovenia Economic Growth

Weaker domestic demand and challenging external conditions are expected to weigh on this year’s outturn. Fixed investment growth is seen moderating amid less upbeat business confidence, while slower growth in key trading partners will limit export performance. That said, greater employment gains and continued wage growth should shore up household spending and cushion the slowdown. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 3.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.

Slovenia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)2.12.12.12.12.1
GDP per capita (EUR)17,60118,24418,83719,55420,813
GDP (EUR bn)36.237.638.940.443.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-1.13.02.33.14.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-4.21.92.34.01.9
Investment (annual variation in %)3.21.0-1.6-3.710.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.91.75.17.78.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-3.70.01.14.47.4
Unemployment Rate10.29.79.08.06.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-14.7-5.5-2.8-1.90.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)70.480.482.678.774.1
Money (annual variation in %)-1.36.75.07.76.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.70.1-0.50.51.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.90.4-0.8-0.21.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)0.0-0.6-0.2-1.42.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)3.35.13.84.86.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)1.21.91.51.92.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)0.71.21.51.51.6
Exports (EUR billion)21.723.024.025.028.5
Imports (EUR billion)21.021.822.623.526.9
Exports (annual variation in %)2.15.94.74.014.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.73.83.64.014.7

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Slovenia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield-0.12-0.79 %Sep 04
Exchange Rate1.100.65 %Sep 04
Stock Market850-0.30 %Sep 04

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