Philippines Economic Outlook
January 25, 2022After better-than-expected growth in Q3, activity likely slowed in Q4, mainly due to a tougher base effect. Underlying momentum appeared robust, amid looser restrictions and fewer Covid-19 cases. The manufacturing PMI averaged higher, suggesting a pickup in growth of industry, while solid expansions in retail sales and remittances through November suggest healthy private spending. In Q1, activity is likely slowing further. Covid-19 cases have skyrocketed due to Omicron, and restrictions have been tightened as a result. Moreover, Typhoon Rai hit in December, causing significant economic damage and raising inflationary risks, which may dent spending early this year. In politics, the president recently signed a law liberalizing the retail sector. Meanwhile, Marcos Jr., son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, has emerged as the frontrunner in this year’s presidential election.
Philippines Economic GrowthActivity should pick up this year as expanding vaccination coverage boosts spending. Fiscal and monetary stances should remain supportive, while the government’s infrastructure program is likely to continue boosting investment. Key risks include new Covid-19 variants, this year’s election, fiscal decentralization reforms, inflationary pressures and extreme weather events. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP to increase 6.9% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2023, they forecast economic growth of 6.4%.
Philippines Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||4.44||-4.11 %||Dec 27|
|Exchange Rate||50.66||0.02 %||Jan 01|
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Philippines Economic News
January 13, 2022
Remittances totaled USD 2.5 billion in November, representing a 5.1% year-on-year expansion.
January 11, 2022
Merchandise exports jumped 6.6% on an annual basis in November, on the heels of October’s 2.0% increase.
January 5, 2022
Consumer prices flatlined over the previous month in December, coming in below November's 0.54% increase, amid softer price pressures for food.
January 3, 2022
The IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 51.8 in December, up from November's 51.7.
December 15, 2021
At its monetary policy meeting on 15 December, the Central Bank of the Philippines maintained the overnight reverse repurchase facility rate at its record low of 2.00%, marking the ninth successive hold and matching market analysts’ expectations.