Philippines Economic Outlook
August 25, 2020The economy contracted in Q2 at the sharpest rate since current records began amid a harsh domestic lockdown, with the downturn driven by plunging private consumption, investment and exports. However, a surge in government spending softened the fall. Turning to Q3, available data suggests momentum is still muted: The manufacturing PMI declined in July amid lower output, fewer new orders and reduced exports. In addition, surging Covid-19 cases led the government to impose a two-week lockdown in and around the capital, Manila, in early August, which will have depressed activity. At end-July, President Duterte approved a PHP 4.5 trillion (USD 93 billion) budget for 2021, slightly above revised spending estimates for 2020, as the government attempts to balance the desire to support the economy with the need to gradually rein in public debt and the fiscal deficit.
Philippines Economic GrowthThe economy will shrink markedly this year, hit by weaker remittances, the prolonged, stringent domestic lockdown and soft foreign demand. While a ramp-up in fiscal and monetary stimulus should cushion the downturn somewhat, the possibility of further stop-start lockdowns to contain elevated infection rates is a key downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP falling 6.1% in 2020, which is down 2.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Next year, GDP is seen growing 7.5% in 2021.
Philippines Economy Data
5 years of Philippines economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Philippines Economic News
September 16, 2020
Remittances totaled USD 2.8 billion in July (June: USD 2.5 billion), representing a 7.8% year-on-year rise and likely supported by the lifting of lockdowns abroad.
September 10, 2020
Merchandise exports plummeted 9.6% year-on-year in July amid lower exports of gold and machinery, following June’s 12.5% decline.
September 4, 2020
Consumer prices fell a seasonally-adjusted 0.16% in August over the previous month, contrasting the 0.49% increase logged in July.
Philippines: Manufacturing sector conditions deteriorate at faster pace in August amid fresh lockdown measures
September 1, 2020
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit, fell from 48.4 in July to 47.3 in August due to stricter Covid-19 restrictions.
August 20, 2020
At its 20 August monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP) decided to leave the overnight reverse repurchase facility at 2.25%.