Philippines Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020The economy shrank sharply in Q3 according to recent data, albeit at a softer rate than Q2’s record downturn. Private consumption and fixed investment continued to collapse amid a weak labor market and suppressed sentiment. Moreover, fiscal support dried up, with government spending growth slowing markedly. The external sector contributed to GDP, although this was chiefly due to a collapse in imports on depressed demand. Turning to Q4, conditions are likely still downbeat. The manufacturing PMI slipped back into contractionary territory in October on a renewed fall in new orders. Moreover, Covid-19 restrictions linger, while the country has been lashed by devastating typhoons in recent weeks, causing economic disruption and likely hurting the agricultural sector. In addition, although a USD 3.4 billion stimulus package was introduced in September, spending execution has so far been lackluster.
Philippines Economic GrowthFollowing 2020’s collapse, growth should return next year as both the domestic and external sectors recover. However, possible further lockdown measures to contain the virus, tepid fiscal support and structural damage to the labor market pose downside risks. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP to increase 7.1% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2022, they forecast economic growth of 6.4%.
Philippines Economy Data
5 years of Philippines economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.44||-4.11 %||Dec 27|
|Exchange Rate||50.66||0.02 %||Jan 01|
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Philippines Economic News
May 3, 2021
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit, dropped to 49.0 in April, following March´s 52.2.
April 14, 2021
Remittances totaled USD 2.5 billion in February, representing a 5.1% increase in annual terms, swinging from January’s 1.7% decline and logging the best reading in five months.
April 8, 2021
Merchandise exports contracted 2.3% in annual terms in February, moderating from January’s 5.2% drop.
April 6, 2021
Consumer prices fell a seasonally-adjusted 0.23% in March over the previous month, swinging from February's 0.24% increase.
April 5, 2021
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit, came in at 52.2 in March, slightly below February’s 52.5.