Philippines Economic Forecast

Philippines Economic Outlook

June 21, 2022

Growth beat market expectations in Q1 in annual terms, in part due to a low base effect. The loosening of Covid-19 restrictions at the end of the quarter supported private consumption. Turning to Q2, the growth rate is likely to remain one of the fastest in the region. Private spending will continue to be boosted by loosened Covid-19 restrictions. Notably, the manufacturing PMI rose at the fastest rate in nearly five years in April. That said, rising inflation will be hampering consumer spending, while the pre-election spending ban will have dampened public expenditure. In politics, the new president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., named his cabinet on 3 June. His picks signaled continuity of the policies of the prior president. Notably, current central bank governor Benjamin Diokno was selected as the secretary of finance.

Philippines Economic Growth

GDP is set to grow at the fastest pace in ASEAN this year. Support will come from reduced Covid-19 restrictions, expansionary fiscal and monetary stances, and the government’s “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure program. Key factors to watch include fiscal and external imbalances, and fiscal decentralization reforms. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP to increase 6.9% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2023, they forecast economic growth of 6.1%.

Philippines Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)102103105107108
GDP per capita (USD)3,0153,0863,1313,2533,480
GDP (USD bn)306319329347377
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.37.16.96.36.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.47.26.05.85.9
Investment (annual variation in %)13.820.910.612.93.9
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)5.26.88.05.13.2
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-57.310249.012.4-  
Unemployment Rate6.35.55.75.35.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.9-2.3-2.1-3.1-3.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)42.740.240.239.939.6
Money (annual variation in %)9.113.311.68.610.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.72.22.95.12.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.71.32.95.22.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-6.7-4.8-0.90.71.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.003.003.004.754.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-3.9-1.625.1-12.84.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)46.9349.6050.0152.5050.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)45.5347.5050.4052.6751.78
Current Account (% of GDP)2.4-0.4-0.7-2.5-0.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)7.3-1.2-2.1-8.8-0.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-12.2-26.7-27.4-43.5-40.7
Exports (USD billion)58.857.468.769.370.9
Imports (USD billion)71.184.196.1113112
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.3-2.419.70.92.3
Imports (annual variation in %)8.718.414.217.4-1.1
International Reserves (USD)80.780.781.679.287.8
External Debt (% of GDP)25.323.522.322.822.2

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Philippines Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield4.44-4.11 %Dec 27
Exchange Rate50.660.02 %Jan 01

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