Philippines Economic Forecast

Philippines Economic Outlook

November 14, 2017

The economy continues to grow briskly, benefiting from robust domestic and external demand. Despite an acceleration in inflation, household spending remains strong, supported by rising remittances and rapid credit expansion, which posted another month of growth above 20% in September. Meanwhile, upbeat business sentiment and the ramp up of public infrastructure spending buttressed fixed investment, increasing the country’s productive capacity. The PMI jumped in October—an encouraging sign for the manufacturing sector in Q4—on considerably faster growth in both output and new orders, leaving behind a weak Q3. On the external front, exports posted another month of solid growth in September, while imports were also on the rise partly due to the government capital spending plan. On the downside, the country experienced FDI outflows in the first nine months of the year, due to rising interest rates in the U.S. Furthermore, some overheating could emerge if credit growth accelerates further.

Philippines Economic Growth

Growth should remain robust next year. Tighter labor market conditions coupled with growing remittances will drive private consumption, while favorable financing conditions and public-private partnerships are expected to buttress fixed investment. Possible downsides stem from a slowdown in China and from further capital outflows to developed countries. The FocusEconomics panel sees GDP growth of 6.4% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and also 6.4% in 2019.

Philippines Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)96.598.2100102104
GDP per capita (USD)2,5922,7682,8412,8642,926
GDP (USD bn)250272285293305
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.77.16.16.16.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.65.65.66.37.0
Investment (annual variation in %)10.811.87.216.925.2
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)5.410.38.35.77.0
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)2.12.72.71.22.3
Unemployment Rate7.07.16.86.35.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-1.4-0.6-0.9-2.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.549.245.444.742.1
Money (annual variation in %)9.433.510.59.113.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.04.12.71.52.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.22.94.21.41.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.11.62.7-3.91.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.504.004.003.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)33.01.322.8-3.9-1.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)41.0644.3944.7946.9349.60
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)42.2142.4644.4045.5347.50
Current Account (% of GDP)2.84.23.82.50.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)6.911.410.87.30.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-10.0-5.7-3.3-12.2-27.7
Exports (USD billion)52.156.762.158.856.4
Imports (USD billion)62.162.465.471.184.1
Exports (annual variation in %)7.98.89.5-5.3-4.2
Imports (annual variation in %)2.60.54.88.718.4
International Reserves (USD)83.883.279.580.780.7
External Debt (% of GDP)32.028.927.326.525.1

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Philippines Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.70-4.11 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate50.720.02 %Dec 06
Stock Market8,1300.66 %Dec 06

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