Philippines Economic Outlook
July 16, 2019The economy appears to have had a resurgence in the second quarter. Exports continued to gradually recover in May, and business confidence improved in the quarter. Moreover, government data revealed public spending ramped up in May, as policymakers try to achieve their 2019 growth target and make up for lost time from the budget impasse in H1. Although remittances slowed in April, a rock-solid U.S. labor market should have kept remittances afloat in May and June, while cooling inflation likely boosted consumer spending in Q2. Nevertheless, external headwinds linger. Particularly, while the manufacturing sector was again resilient in June compared to regional peers, weak demand and rising inventories signal growth in the sector could slow in the quarters ahead if new business orders remain lackluster. Likewise, the business outlook for Q3 was less upbeat due to expected interruptions from the rainy season.
Philippines Economic GrowthEconomic momentum should gather steam in the second half of the year thanks to fiscal stimulus and more accommodative monetary conditions. Government spending on infrastructure projects should rebound in H2, which should in turn boost private investment. The U.S.-China trade dispute and a regional slowdown, however, represent key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 6.0% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.2% in 2020.
Philippines Economy Data
5 years of Philippines economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||5.05||-4.11 %||Jul 11|
|Exchange Rate||51.20||0.02 %||Jul 11|
|Stock Market||8,154||0.66 %||Jul 11|
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Philippines Economic News
July 15, 2019
Cash remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) increased a total of USD 2.6 billion in May, which marked a 5.7% rise from the same month a year prior, accelerating from the 4.0% year-on-year uptick registered in April (USD 2.4 billion).
July 10, 2019
Merchandise exports grew 1.0% in annual terms in May, matching April’s revised growth figure (previously reported: +0.4% year-on-year), gradually recovering from a very weak performance in the first quarter.
July 5, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.08% over the previous month in June, down from the 0.17% increase in May.
July 1, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by Nikkei and IHS Markit, edged up to 51.3 in June from 51.2 in May.
June 20, 2019
At its 20 June monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP) left the overnight reverse repurchase facility (RRP) unchanged at 4.50%, matching market analyst expectations.