Philippines Economic Forecast

Philippines Economic Outlook

October 17, 2017

The economy continues to expand at a healthy pace, but some vulnerabilities have emerged. On the external front, solid global demand translated into a reduced trade deficit in the January-to-August period compared to the same period last year. The weaker peso, however, is also raising the costs of imports without boosting exports, which is especially evident in the manufacturing sector. Moreover, the country is experiencing a decline in FDI and portfolio investments, due to the Fed’s tightening cycle and domestic terrorism concerns. Internally, consumer spending continues to expand on the back of rising remittance inflows, but faster inflation is eating into households’ incomes. Fixed investment growth, although robust, is being held back by the slower than expected implementation of public infrastructure projects. In late September, the Central Bank heightened scrutiny of banks’ real estate financing, as worries emerge around the excessive rate of credit growth.

Philippines Economy Data

Population (million)96.598.2100102104
GDP per capita (USD)2,5922,7682,8412,8642,926
GDP (USD bn)250272285293305
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)10.811.87.216.925.2
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)5.410.
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate7.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-1.4-0.6-0.9-2.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)51.549.245.444.742.1
Money (annual variation in %)9.433.510.59.113.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.504.004.003.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)33.01.322.8-3.9-1.6
Exchange Rate (vs USD)41.0644.3944.7946.9349.60
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)42.2142.4644.4045.5347.50
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)6.911.410.87.30.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-10.0-5.7-3.3-12.2-27.7
Exports (USD billion)52.156.762.158.856.4
Imports (USD billion)62.162.465.471.184.1
Exports (annual variation in %)
Imports (annual variation in %)
International Reserves (USD)83.883.279.580.780.7
External Debt (% of GDP)32.028.927.326.525.1

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Philippines Facts

Bond Yield4.84-0.14 %Oct 18
Exchange Rate51.460.16 %Oct 18
Stock Market8,432-0.78 %Oct 18

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Philippines Economic Growth

October 17, 2017

Next year the economy should maintain a robust pace of growth, with falling unemployment and solid remittance inflows supporting household spending, while the public infrastructure program is expected to gain traction and buttress capital spending. Nevertheless, the entrenchment of internal security problems and a possible weakening in demand from China could weigh on the outlook. The FocusEconomics panel sees GDP growth of 6.4% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.4% also in 2019.

Philippines Economic News

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