Philippines Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020The economy shrank sharply in Q3 according to recent data, albeit at a softer rate than Q2’s record downturn. Private consumption and fixed investment continued to collapse amid a weak labor market and suppressed sentiment. Moreover, fiscal support dried up, with government spending growth slowing markedly. The external sector contributed to GDP, although this was chiefly due to a collapse in imports on depressed demand. Turning to Q4, conditions are likely still downbeat. The manufacturing PMI slipped back into contractionary territory in October on a renewed fall in new orders. Moreover, Covid-19 restrictions linger, while the country has been lashed by devastating typhoons in recent weeks, causing economic disruption and likely hurting the agricultural sector. In addition, although a USD 3.4 billion stimulus package was introduced in September, spending execution has so far been lackluster.
Philippines Economic GrowthFollowing 2020’s collapse, growth should return next year as both the domestic and external sectors recover. However, possible further lockdown measures to contain the virus, tepid fiscal support and structural damage to the labor market pose downside risks. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP to increase 7.1% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2022, they forecast economic growth of 6.4%.
Philippines Economy Data
5 years of Philippines economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.44||-4.11 %||Dec 27|
|Exchange Rate||50.66||0.02 %||Jan 01|
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Philippines Economic News
November 15, 2020
Remittances summed USD 2.6 billion in September, representing a 9.3% year-on-year expansion.
November 10, 2020
GDP contracted 11.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, slightly milder than the 16.9% contraction tallied in the second quarter but still the second sharpest decline on record, as partial lockdown restrictions, elevated uncertainty and a slowdown in fiscal support weighed on activity.
November 4, 2020
Merchandise exports ticked up 2.2% in annual terms in September (August: -12.8% year-on-year), marking the first increase since February.
November 4, 2020
Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.32% over the previous month in October amid higher food prices, picking up from September's 0.08% rise.
November 3, 2020
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit, fell from 50.1 in September to 48.5 in October.