Philippines Economic Outlook
September 18, 2018The economy has had a mixed performance in the third quarter of the year. In July, retail sales and remittances grew robustly in annual terms, while the government’s infrastructure program should be boosting fixed investment. However, the manufacturing PMI averaged notably lower in July and August compared to Q2. In addition, consumer confidence for Q3 turned negative and inflation surprised on the upside in August, casting doubts on whether robust consumer spending will be maintained in the months ahead. Moreover, the flipside of the government’s infrastructure push is an ongoing surge in imports of capital goods, which caused the trade deficit to widen hugely year-on-year in July and is constraining economic growth. In mid-September, the country was hit by Typhoon Mangkhut, which will likely fan price pressures in the months ahead and cause agricultural losses running into billions of pesos.
Philippines Economic GrowthThe large fiscal stimulus should keep growth elevated this year and next, notably through a surge in fixed investment. However, rising fiscal and current account deficits make the country increasingly vulnerable to external shocks, such as an escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions. Moreover, tighter monetary policy in response to surging inflation could clip private consumption growth. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth of 6.5% in 2018 and 6.5% again in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Philippines Economy Data
5 years of Philippines economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||6.83||-4.11 %||Sep 20|
|Exchange Rate||54.09||0.02 %||Sep 20|
|Stock Market||7,135||0.66 %||Sep 20|
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Philippines Economic News
September 17, 2018
In July, cash remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) reached USD 2.4 billion, a 5.2% increase from the same month of the previous year.
September 11, 2018
Merchandise exports grew just 0.3% in annual terms in July, coming in below June’s revised 2.7% growth (previously reported: -0.1% year-on-year).
September 5, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.9% over the previous month in August, up from the 0.5% increase registered in July.
September 3, 2018
According to data released by Nikkei and IHS Markit, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.9 in August from 50.9 in July, inching further above the critical 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the manufacturing sector.
August 15, 2018
In June, cash remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) reached USD 2.4 billion, a 4.5% decline from the same month of the previous year.