Philippines Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020The economy shrank sharply in Q3 according to recent data, albeit at a softer rate than Q2’s record downturn. Private consumption and fixed investment continued to collapse amid a weak labor market and suppressed sentiment. Moreover, fiscal support dried up, with government spending growth slowing markedly. The external sector contributed to GDP, although this was chiefly due to a collapse in imports on depressed demand. Turning to Q4, conditions are likely still downbeat. The manufacturing PMI slipped back into contractionary territory in October on a renewed fall in new orders. Moreover, Covid-19 restrictions linger, while the country has been lashed by devastating typhoons in recent weeks, causing economic disruption and likely hurting the agricultural sector. In addition, although a USD 3.4 billion stimulus package was introduced in September, spending execution has so far been lackluster.
Philippines Economic GrowthFollowing 2020’s collapse, growth should return next year as both the domestic and external sectors recover. However, possible further lockdown measures to contain the virus, tepid fiscal support and structural damage to the labor market pose downside risks. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP to increase 7.1% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2022, they forecast economic growth of 6.4%.
Philippines Economy Data
5 years of Philippines economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.44||-4.11 %||Dec 27|
|Exchange Rate||50.66||0.02 %||Jan 01|
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Philippines Economic News
July 12, 2021
Remittances totaled USD 2.4 billion in May, representing a 13.1% expansion in annual terms, edging up from April’s 12.7% rise.
July 9, 2021
Merchandise exports grew a solid 29.8% in annual terms in May, but eased from April’s 72.1% jump.
July 6, 2021
Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.16% from the previous month in June, following May's 0.08% increase.
July 1, 2021
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit, rose to 50.8 in June, following May’s 49.9.
June 23, 2021
At its monetary policy meeting on 23 June, the Central Bank of the Philippines maintained the overnight reverse repurchase facility rate at its record low of 2.00%, marking the fifth successive hold and broadly matching market analysts’ expectations.