Philippines Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019
The economy likely ended 2018 on a strong note, with Q4’s average PMI print posting the strongest quarterly result of the year and cash remittances sustaining solid growth in October and November. Nevertheless, the trade deficit remained elevated near a record high in November, as exports contracted on a drop in electronic parts shipments. Momentum will likely be broadly stable in Q1, despite tighter monetary conditions, as falling inflation supports household spending. On the political front, a government impasse over the 2019 general budget that caused lawmakers to miss the deadline to pass it could weigh on growth in the quarter, as the stalemate has put infrastructure projects and a government employee pay hike on hold. Moreover, a ban on infrastructure projects ahead of elections in May will also likely dampen government spending in H1.Philippines Economic Growth
The economic outlook for 2019 remains promising thanks to a thriving domestic economy. Solid household spending, fueled by remittances, and strong investment, which should be driven in part by the government’s infrastructure program, should underpin domestic demand. However, if the government budget standoff drags on, H1 growth could be hampered significantly. Moreover, sharp import demand caused by the government’s infrastructure push and looser import quotas is expected to keep the current account balance in the red. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 6.3% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.3% again in 2020.Philippines Economy Data
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Philippines Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 6.34 | -4.11 % | Feb 14 |
| Exchange Rate | 52.29 | 0.02 % | Feb 14 |
| Stock Market | 7,991 | 0.66 % | Feb 14 |
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Philippines Economic News
Philippines: Exports tumble at fastest rate in nearly three years in December
February 12, 2019
Merchandise exports plunged at the end of 2018, contracting 12.3% in December over the same month a year prior, down from the 0.3% decline logged in November.
Philippines: Central Bank keeps rates on hold in February; pencils in softer inflation for 2019 and 2020
February 7, 2019
At its 7 February monetary policy meeting, the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP) kept the overnight reverse repurchase facility (RRP) unchanged at 4.75%.
Philippines: Inflation eases further in January
February 5, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.2% over the prior month in January, contrasting the 0.6% decline logged in December.
Philippines: Manufacturing sector grows at a weaker pace in January
February 1, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by Nikkei and IHS Markit, dipped to 52.3 points in January from 53.2 points in December, which was well below the survey’s long-term average of 53.7 points.
Philippines: Economic growth picks up slightly in the fourth quarter
January 24, 2019
The economy continued to grow at a steady pace in the final quarter of the year, with GDP growth expanding 6.1% in annual terms.
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