Philippines Economic Forecast

Philippines Economic Outlook

November 12, 2019

Economic growth gained steam in the third quarter for the first time this year, powered by robust domestic demand. Private consumption strengthened amid decelerating inflation and lower borrowing costs, while the government fired up public spending on infrastructure projects—after the 2019 budget was finally passed—to try to meet its 2019 growth target. Despite the positive headline result, fixed investment continued to struggle in the third quarter even as construction investment surged, while the longstanding Sino-American trade clash suppressed exports growth. Turning to the fourth quarter, the economy likely remained fairly stable. Manufacturing conditions improved slightly in October on burgeoning new business, and a recovery in export orders bodes well for the external sector. Meanwhile, the sustained decline in inflation in the same month should support household expenditures.

Philippines Economic Growth

The economy should gain stride in 2020, supported by robust public infrastructure expenditure, which should feed through to a pick-up in fixed investment. Moreover, consumer spending should remain strong thanks to sustained remittances and favorable credit conditions. However, prolonged trade tensions, a weaker Chinese economy and a continued tech downturn cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 6.2% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.3% in 2021.

Philippines Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)98.299.9102103105
GDP per capita (USD)2,7682,8492,8812,9532,989
GDP (USD bn)272285293305314
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.16.16.16.96.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.65.66.37.15.9
Investment (annual variation in %)11.87.216.926.19.4
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)10.38.35.77.18.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)2.72.71.22.33.5
Unemployment Rate7.16.86.35.55.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.4-0.6-0.9-2.4-2.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)49.245.444.742.142.1
Money (annual variation in %)33.510.59.113.311.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.81.90.72.22.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.63.60.71.32.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.62.7-3.91.14.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.504.004.003.003.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)1.322.8-3.9-1.625.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)44.3944.7946.9349.6050.01
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)42.4644.4045.5347.5050.40
Current Account (% of GDP)4.23.82.5-0.4-0.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)11.410.87.3-1.2-2.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.7-3.3-12.2-26.7-27.4
Exports (USD billion)56.762.158.857.468.7
Imports (USD billion)62.465.471.184.196.1
Exports (annual variation in %)8.89.5-5.3-2.419.7
Imports (annual variation in %)0.54.88.718.414.2
International Reserves (USD)83.279.580.780.781.6
External Debt (% of GDP)28.927.326.524.523.3

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Philippines Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.68-4.11 %Nov 21
Exchange Rate50.830.02 %Nov 21
Stock Market7,8190.66 %Nov 21

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