Philippines Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020The economy shrank sharply in Q3 according to recent data, albeit at a softer rate than Q2’s record downturn. Private consumption and fixed investment continued to collapse amid a weak labor market and suppressed sentiment. Moreover, fiscal support dried up, with government spending growth slowing markedly. The external sector contributed to GDP, although this was chiefly due to a collapse in imports on depressed demand. Turning to Q4, conditions are likely still downbeat. The manufacturing PMI slipped back into contractionary territory in October on a renewed fall in new orders. Moreover, Covid-19 restrictions linger, while the country has been lashed by devastating typhoons in recent weeks, causing economic disruption and likely hurting the agricultural sector. In addition, although a USD 3.4 billion stimulus package was introduced in September, spending execution has so far been lackluster.
Philippines Economic GrowthFollowing 2020’s collapse, growth should return next year as both the domestic and external sectors recover. However, possible further lockdown measures to contain the virus, tepid fiscal support and structural damage to the labor market pose downside risks. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP to increase 7.1% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2022, they forecast economic growth of 6.4%.
Philippines Economy Data
5 years of Philippines economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.44||-4.11 %||Dec 27|
|Exchange Rate||50.66||0.02 %||Jan 01|
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Philippines Economic News
February 14, 2021
Remittances totaled USD 2.9 billion in December, representing a 0.4% year-on-year decline and contrasting November’s 0.3% year-on-year expansion.
February 10, 2021
At its first meeting of the year on 10 February, the Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP) left the overnight reverse repurchase facility rate stable at 2.00%, in line with market analysts’ expectations.
February 5, 2021
Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 1.27% over the previous month in January, following December's 0.88% rise.
February 1, 2021
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS Markit, jumped to 52.5 in January from December’s 49.2, hitting a 25-month high.
January 28, 2021
The economy shrank 8.3% on an annual basis in the fourth quarter of 2020, following the 11.4% contraction tallied in Q3.