Kazakhstan Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020The economy continued to suffer in the third quarter on the fallout from the pandemic and related containment measures, with the government imposing a lockdown that lasted from early July to late August. Industrial production plummeted in Q3, likely as mining output was hurt by lower oil production due to OPEC+ cuts. Moreover, merchandise exports were down further in July–August, also dented by OPEC+ cuts, while fixed capital investment also contracted in the quarter. More positively, retail sales rebounded in Q3 after contracting in Q2. In other news, new restrictions such as limits on the operating hours of cafes and restaurants were imposed in the capital Nur-Sultan on 14 October, after the resumption of flights was paused on 5 October. These measures, coupled with lockdowns abroad, bode ill for prospects of a recovery in the final quarter of the year.
Kazakhstan Economic GrowthGDP is seen contracting notably this year as activity takes a double hit from severe restrictions imposed in Q2 and a second wave of social-distancing measures in Q3. Economic output should rebound in 2021 as external demand rebounds and oil prices recover somewhat. However, possible further restrictions pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP to expand 4.0% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2022, the economy is seen growing 4.4%.
Kazakhstan Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||382.9||0.32 %||Jan 01|
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Kazakhstan Economic News
June 14, 2021
Industrial output increased 3.6% in year-on-year terms in May, which was above April's 3.0% increase.
June 7, 2021
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided to keep the base rate at 9.00% at its early June meeting, marking the seventh consecutive hold, after having cut it by 50 basis points in July 2020.
June 1, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.71% from the previous month in May, coming in below April's 0.85% rise.
May 17, 2021
Industrial output grew 3.0% year-on-year in April (March: +4.0% yoy).
May 14, 2021
According to a preliminary reading, GDP contracted 1.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, softening from the 2.6% contraction recorded in January–December last year.