Kazakhstan Economic Outlook
February 5, 2019
Kazakhstan appears to have performed solidly in 2018. Although economic activity decelerated slightly in the fourth quarter, it remained robust thanks to higher oil production and buoyant domestic demand, following healthy growth in the previous three quarters. Moreover, activity in the industrial sector strengthened despite a marked retreat in oil prices and weaker global growth, while a solid expansion in private credit likely continued to shore up household spending in the final quarter against the backdrop of relatively muted inflationary pressures. Heading into 2019, a 50% rise in the minimum wage, which came into effect at the start of the year, should support private consumption, while a targeted stimulus program announced by President Nazarbayev in late 2018 should boost overall growth.Kazakhstan Economic Growth
The economy is seen losing some momentum this year, although the overall expansion will remain healthy. Oil production is expected to climb on growing output in Kashagan and Tengiz oil fields, while elevated investment in the non-oil sector should also buttress activity. A fall in commodity prices, along with a prolonged downturn in the country’s main trading partners—China and Russia—present the main risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts expect GDP to increase 3.4% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and again 3.4% in 2020.Kazakhstan Economy Data
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Kazakhstan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 378.2 | 0.32 % | Feb 14 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | 0.0 % | Feb 14 |
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Kazakhstan Economic News
Kazakhstan: Inflation moderates to more than three-year low in January
February 1, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.5% over the previous month in January, following a 0.7% month-on-month upturn in December.
Kazakhstan: Industrial production growth declines to the lowest in 27 months
January 16, 2019
The industrial sector slowed markedly in December, with output rising at an annual pace of 0.1% in the month, following a 2.3% year-on-year expansion in November.
Kazakhstan: Central Bank holds base rate steady at 9.25% in first meeting of the year
January 14, 2019
At its 14 January monetary policy meeting, the National Bank of Kazakhstan kept the base rate at 9.25%, with an interest rate corridor of plus or minus 1.0 percentage point.
Kazakhstan: Inflation remains stable for the third consecutive month in December
January 3, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.7% over the previous month in December, after a 0.9% month-on-month increase in November.
Kazakhstan: Growth edges down in the third quarter
December 29, 2018
A detailed breakdown of GDP by expenditure confirmed that the economy lost some steam in the second half of the year, growing 4.1% year-on-year in January–September, following a 4.2% expansion in January–June.
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