Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

July 2, 2019

Economic activity likely remained stunted in the second quarter, on the heels of a deceleration in the first quarter. In May, the short-term economic activity indicator weakened for a second consecutive month, amid a drop in industrial production—brought upon by a slowdown in the manufacturing sector—and the sharpest slump in oil output in almost three years, owing to planned maintenance works in the Kashagan oil field. The industrial downturn, coupled with lower oil prices, is likely to have bruised merchandise exports in May, which had barely recovered in April; in turn, this threatens to push the current account back into a deficit by the end of Q2. In the political arena, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, a loyal lieutenant of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, won a rubber-stamp presidential election on 9 June. This should ensure the continuity of economic policy ahead.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

Growth is set to decelerate this year on a fall in merchandise exports owing to a more challenging external backdrop and easing oil output due to overhauls at the three main oil fields. Nevertheless, solid domestic demand should buffer the slowdown, with a planned fiscal stimulus program supporting consumption and looser credit conditions boosting fixed investment. FocusEconomics analysts expect GDP to increase 3.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.5% again in 2020.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)17.217.417.717.918.2
GDP per capita (USD)13,59112,4816,7937,8528,773
GDP per capita (EUR)9,86310,3146,2537,4457,306
GDP (USD bn)233217120141160
GDP (EUR bn)169180110133133
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.04.21.21.14.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)10.61.11.81.21.2
Investment (annual variation in %)5.54.44.23.04.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.30.2-1.6-1.27.2
Unemployment Rate5.25.05.14.94.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.7-2.2-1.6-2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.314.322.124.425.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)1.5-8.28.046.27.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.87.413.68.57.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.86.76.614.77.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.5016.0012.0010.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)154.4182.9340.6333.7332.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)152.2179.4223.3342.0326.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)212.2221.2369.9350.9399.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)202.2238.3247.5378.6369.0
Current Account (% of GDP)0.82.8-5.0-5.8-3.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.06.1-6.0-8.1-5.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)36.036.611.69.316.7
Exports (USD billion)85.179.144.835.547.3
Imports (USD billion)49.242.533.226.230.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.6-7.1-43.3-20.833.3
Imports (annual variation in %)5.4-13.7-21.8-21.016.5
International Reserves (USD)24.729.227.929.731.0
External Debt (% of GDP)64.372.3127116105

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Kazakhstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate383.30.32 %Jul 11
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jul 10

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