Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

The economy continued to suffer in the third quarter on the fallout from the pandemic and related containment measures, with the government imposing a lockdown that lasted from early July to late August. Industrial production plummeted in Q3, likely as mining output was hurt by lower oil production due to OPEC+ cuts. Moreover, merchandise exports were down further in July–August, also dented by OPEC+ cuts, while fixed capital investment also contracted in the quarter. More positively, retail sales rebounded in Q3 after contracting in Q2. In other news, new restrictions such as limits on the operating hours of cafes and restaurants were imposed in the capital Nur-Sultan on 14 October, after the resumption of flights was paused on 5 October. These measures, coupled with lockdowns abroad, bode ill for prospects of a recovery in the final quarter of the year.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

GDP is seen contracting notably this year as activity takes a double hit from severe restrictions imposed in Q2 and a second wave of social-distancing measures in Q3. Economic output should rebound in 2021 as external demand rebounds and oil prices recover somewhat. However, possible further restrictions pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP to expand 4.0% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2022, the economy is seen growing 4.4%.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)17.717.918.218.418.6
GDP per capita (USD)6,7937,8569,0028,8199,662
GDP per capita (EUR)6,2537,4487,4977,7158,608
GDP (USD bn)120141163162180
GDP (EUR bn)110133136142160
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.14.14.14.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.81.21.56.15.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.23.04.55.411.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.6-1.27.24.13.9
Unemployment Rate5.14.94.94.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-1.6-2.7-1.3-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)22.828.226.326.025.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)8.046.27.57.111.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)13.68.57.15.35.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.614.77.46.05.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0012.0010.259.259.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)340.6333.7332.8384.3382.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)223.3342.0326.3345.2383.0
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)369.9350.9399.3440.8429.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)247.5378.6369.0407.0428.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.0-5.8-3.1-0.1-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.0-8.1-5.1-0.2-6.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)11.69.316.725.619.1
Exports (USD billion)44.835.547.359.857.8
Imports (USD billion)33.226.230.634.238.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-43.3-20.833.326.5-3.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-21.8-21.016.512.013.0
International Reserves (USD)27.929.731.030.929.0
External Debt (% of GDP)12711610297.987.1

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Kazakhstan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate382.90.32 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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