Kazakhstan Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020The economy continued to suffer in the third quarter on the fallout from the pandemic and related containment measures, with the government imposing a lockdown that lasted from early July to late August. Industrial production plummeted in Q3, likely as mining output was hurt by lower oil production due to OPEC+ cuts. Moreover, merchandise exports were down further in July–August, also dented by OPEC+ cuts, while fixed capital investment also contracted in the quarter. More positively, retail sales rebounded in Q3 after contracting in Q2. In other news, new restrictions such as limits on the operating hours of cafes and restaurants were imposed in the capital Nur-Sultan on 14 October, after the resumption of flights was paused on 5 October. These measures, coupled with lockdowns abroad, bode ill for prospects of a recovery in the final quarter of the year.
Kazakhstan Economic GrowthGDP is seen contracting notably this year as activity takes a double hit from severe restrictions imposed in Q2 and a second wave of social-distancing measures in Q3. Economic output should rebound in 2021 as external demand rebounds and oil prices recover somewhat. However, possible further restrictions pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP to expand 4.0% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2022, the economy is seen growing 4.4%.
Kazakhstan Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||382.9||0.32 %||Jan 01|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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Kazakhstan Economic News
January 5, 2021
Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.87% in December over the previous month, coming in below the 0.93% rise logged in November.
December 14, 2020
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided to keep the base rate at 9.00% at its 14 December meeting, marking the second consecutive hold, after having cut it by 50 basis points in July.
December 11, 2020
Industrial output decreased 2.9% in November (October: -6.2% yoy).
December 2, 2020
Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.93% over the previous month in November, picking up from October's 0.65% rise.
November 17, 2020
Industrial output nosedived 6.2% year-on-year in October (September: -3.5% yoy).