Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

February 5, 2019

Kazakhstan appears to have performed solidly in 2018. Although economic activity decelerated slightly in the fourth quarter, it remained robust thanks to higher oil production and buoyant domestic demand, following healthy growth in the previous three quarters. Moreover, activity in the industrial sector strengthened despite a marked retreat in oil prices and weaker global growth, while a solid expansion in private credit likely continued to shore up household spending in the final quarter against the backdrop of relatively muted inflationary pressures. Heading into 2019, a 50% rise in the minimum wage, which came into effect at the start of the year, should support private consumption, while a targeted stimulus program announced by President Nazarbayev in late 2018 should boost overall growth.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

The economy is seen losing some momentum this year, although the overall expansion will remain healthy. Oil production is expected to climb on growing output in Kashagan and Tengiz oil fields, while elevated investment in the non-oil sector should also buttress activity. A fall in commodity prices, along with a prolonged downturn in the country’s main trading partners—China and Russia—present the main risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts expect GDP to increase 3.4% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and again 3.4% in 2020.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)17.217.417.717.918.2
GDP per capita (USD)13,59112,4816,7937,8528,585
GDP per capita (EUR)9,86310,3146,2537,4457,150
GDP (USD bn)233217120141156
GDP (EUR bn)169180110133130
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.04.21.21.14.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)10.61.11.81.21.5
Investment (annual variation in %)5.54.44.23.04.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.30.2-1.6-1.27.2
Unemployment Rate5.25.05.14.94.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-2.7-2.2-1.6-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.314.322.124.426.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)1.5-8.27.946.17.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.87.413.68.57.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.86.76.614.77.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.5016.0012.0010.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)154.4182.9340.6333.7332.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)152.2179.4223.3342.0326.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)212.2221.2369.9350.9399.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)202.2238.3247.5378.6369.0
Current Account (% of GDP)0.52.8-2.8-6.4-3.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.26.1-5.1-8.9-4.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)34.836.212.79.217.5
Exports (USD billion)85.680.346.537.349.3
Imports (USD billion)50.844.133.828.131.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.5-6.2-42.1-19.932.3
Imports (annual variation in %)4.1-13.3-23.2-17.113.3
International Reserves (USD)24.729.227.929.730.7
External Debt (% of GDP)64.372.5128116107

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Kazakhstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate378.20.32 %Feb 14
Stock Market0.10.0 %Feb 14

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