Kazakhstan Economic Outlook
October 6, 2020The economy suffered in the first half of the year on the fallout from the pandemic. Services activity plummeted, leading the overall downturn, while industrial production lost steam as mining and manufacturing output grew at a softer pace. The economy continued to deteriorate at the beginning of Q3 due to a second lockdown imposed in early July. Accordingly, fixed investment took a hit in July amid heightened uncertainty, while retail sales were also down sharply in the same month. Externally, exports plummeted and likely remained restrained throughout Q3 by OPEC+-imposed productions cuts and still-low oil prices. However, following the easing of restrictions in mid-August, declines in both industrial production and economic activity eased in the month after falling at a record pace in July. Moreover, retail sales expanded in annual terms in August. This suggests the economic conditions improved at the end of the quarter.
Kazakhstan Economic GrowthGDP is seen contracting notably this year as activity takes a double hit from severe restrictions imposed in Q2 and a second lockdown in Q3. Economic output should recover somewhat in 2021 as external demand rebounds. However, low energy prices and a possible further resurgence of Covid-19 cases pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP to fall 2.1% in 2020 and to increase 3.9% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
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|Exchange Rate||382.9||0.32 %||Jan 01|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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Kazakhstan Economic News
October 16, 2020
Industrial output decreased 3.5% in year-on-year terms in September, which was a less pronounced drop than August's 5.6% decrease.
October 1, 2020
Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.28% over the previous month in September, accelerating from the 0.13% rise seen in August.
September 15, 2020
Industrial output dropped 5.6% compared to the same month of the previous year in August, falling at a less pronounced rate than July’s 9.6% plunge.
September 7, 2020
The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided to keep the base rate at 9.00% at its 7 September meeting, having cut it by 50 basis points at the previous meeting in July.
September 1, 2020
Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.10% in August over the previous month, a smaller increase than July's 0.30% rise.