Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

May 8, 2018

Available data shows economic activity continued growing more robustly in the first quarter than the previous one. It expanded in March at roughly the same robust pace as in the previous month, reflecting a strong surge in oil production. Retail sales jumped in March, but overall rose more slowly in Q1 than in Q4. Moreover, exports lost traction in the first two months of the year compared to the final quarter. A deluge of foreign investment is helping to shape the country’s industrial development; Kazakhstan has one of the most favorable investment climates in the region. Recent reports suggest that the country is set to sharply reduce its exports of heavy oil products, such as fuel oil and vacuum gasoil, as it shifts to focusing on higher quality products and cutting pollution following an upgrade of its three refineries.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow more moderately this year because of a marked deceleration in exports and as the government phases out its countercyclical fiscal policy to bring the budget deficit down to 1.1% from 2.6% in 2017. Nevertheless, it should remain on a steady course on the back of recovering oil prices and rising domestic demand amid moderating inflation. Efforts to diversify the economy away from the oil sector, by encouraging investment in non-extractive industries, will be critical to boosting its resilience to external shocks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth of 3.5% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and also 3.5% in 2019.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)17.217.417.717.918.2
GDP per capita (USD)13,58812,4786,7887,636-  
GDP per capita (EUR)9,86010,3126,2497,240-  
GDP (USD bn)233217120137-  
GDP (EUR bn)169180110130-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.04.21.21.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)12.61.51.81.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.94.44.23.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.30.2-1.6-1.2-  
Unemployment Rate5.25.05.14.9-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-2.7-2.2-1.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.314.322.125.0-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)1.5-8.27.946.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.87.413.68.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.86.76.614.7-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.5016.0012.00-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)154.4182.9340.6333.7-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)152.2179.4223.3342.0-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)212.2221.2369.9350.9-  
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)202.2238.3247.5378.6-  
Current Account (% of GDP)0.52.8-2.8-6.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.26.1-5.1-8.5-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)34.836.212.79.4-  
Exports (USD billion)85.680.346.537.3-  
Imports (USD billion)50.844.133.827.9-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.5-6.2-42.1-19.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)4.1-13.3-23.2-17.7-  
International Reserves (USD)24.729.227.929.5-  
External Debt (% of GDP)64.372.5128119-  

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Kazakhstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate329.30.32 %May 21
Stock Market0.10.0 %May 21

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