Kazakhstan Economic Outlook
A resource-rich economy:
Kazakhstan is the largest economy in Central Asia, heavily reliant on oil, natural gas, and mineral exports. The country holds vast reserves of oil, uranium, and metals, making it a key supplier to global markets. While high energy prices benefit the economy, reliance on commodity exports leaves it vulnerable to external shocks and price fluctuations.
Economic diversification efforts:The government has launched various initiatives to diversify the economy beyond hydrocarbons, including the "Nurly Zhol" infrastructure development program and the "Digital Kazakhstan" initiative. Efforts to modernize agriculture, logistics, and manufacturing aim to reduce dependency on raw material exports. Additionally, Kazakhstan is positioning itself as a transit hub through China’s Belt and Road Initiative, capitalizing on its strategic location.
Relations with Russia and China:Kazakhstan maintains strong economic ties with Russia through the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and benefits from extensive trade with China. However, geopolitical tensions in the region, particularly concerning Russia’s war in Ukraine, have led Kazakhstan to seek greater economic partnerships with the West. Sanctions on Russia have created both risks and opportunities, as Kazakhstan navigates shifting trade dynamics.
Kazakhstan’s economic outlook:Kazakhstan’s economy is projected to grow steadily, supported by energy exports, infrastructure investments, and trade expansion. However, challenges such as corruption, slow progress in economic diversification, and geopolitical uncertainties pose risks. Further structural reforms and investments in non-oil industries will be key to long-term stability.
Kazakhstan's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 288 billion in 2024.
Nominal GDP of USD 288 billion in 2024.
Nominal GDP of USD 286 billion in 2024.
GDP per capita of USD 14,207 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 14,349 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 14,349 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 3.2% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 3.1% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 3.1% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 56.0% of overall GDP, manufacturing 12.3%, other industrial activity 27.4%, and agriculture 4.3%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 49.0% of GDP in 2022, government consumption 11.3%, fixed investment 24.1%, and net exports 15.6%.International trade
In 2023, manufactured products made up 19.0% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 58.9%, food 6.7%, ores and metals 14.6% and agricultural raw materials 0.2%, with other categories accounting for 0.6% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 83.6% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 3.0%, food 9.7%, ores and metals 2.8% and agricultural raw materials 0.5%, with other goods accounting for 0.4% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 80.10 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 61.20 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 3.2% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Kazakhstan, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Kazakhstan's fiscal deficit averaged 2.4% of GDP in the decade to 2024. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 4.9% in the decade to 2024. For more information on Kazakhstan's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 9.1% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Kazakhstan inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Kazakhstan's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 15.25%, up from 6.50% a decade earlier. See our Kazakhstan monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the tenge weakened by 65.2% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the tenge, click here.
Economic situation in Kazakhstan
The economy gained steam at the outset of 2025, with annual GDP growth hitting its highest rate in over a decade at 5.6% in Q1 (Q4: +4.8% yoy). The oil and gas sector—the lion’s share of exports and nearly a fifth of GDP—was the engine of growth, as efforts to ramp up production fueled faster industrial momentum. Still, heat waves dented crop yields, the Central Bank hiked interest rates and real wages decelerated, tapping the breaks on the upturn. In Q2, the economy should be shifting into a higher gear. Economic activity growth rose in April from Q1, and oil output remained close to March’s all-time high in April–May. However, oil production remained well above the OPEC+ quota, leading the cartel to punish the country by depressing oil prices—hurting public coffers and suggesting that Kazakhstan could soon exhaust its capacity to exceed quotas.Kazakhstan Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.49 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 25 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Kazakhstan in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 49 economic indicators for Kazakhstan from a panel of 25 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Kazakhstan economy. To download a sample report on the Kazakhstan's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.