Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

November 26, 2019

A first estimate showed that the growth reached a two-year high in the third quarter. Industrial production picked up on the back of upbeat oil output, while activity in the construction and services sectors accelerated in the quarter. Retail sales growth, however, moderated in Q3 despite rising wages, pointing to a slowdown in private consumption. Moreover, external sector metrics were more downbeat in Q3, with goods exports swinging to contraction and merchandise import growth rising. Turning to Q4, the economy maintained pace in January–October, underpinned by buoyant activity in the industrial, construction and retail trade sectors. That said, challenging conditions in the external sector appear to have persisted. On 11 November, Russia’s state-owned pipeline operator agreed to compensate 14 Kazak companies for oil contamination in the Druzhba pipeline.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

Growth is set to moderate next year, but should remain solid. Planned government reforms, which include income tax breaks, should shore up fixed investment, while private consumption will expand at a healthy pace, despite likely losing steam. Moreover, export growth is seen rising on buoyant oil production, although heightened trade tensions remain a key downside risk. FocusEconomics analysts expect GDP to increase 3.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.9% in 2021.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)17.217.417.717.918.2
GDP per capita (USD)13,59112,4816,7937,8528,773
GDP per capita (EUR)9,86310,3146,2537,4457,306
GDP (USD bn)233217120141160
GDP (EUR bn)169180110133133
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.04.21.21.14.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)10.61.11.81.21.2
Investment (annual variation in %)5.54.44.23.04.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.30.2-1.6-1.27.2
Unemployment Rate5.25.05.14.94.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-2.7-2.2-1.6-2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.314.322.124.425.5
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)1.5-8.28.046.27.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.87.413.68.57.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.86.76.614.77.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.5016.0012.0010.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)154.4182.9340.6333.7332.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)152.2179.4223.3342.0326.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)212.2221.2369.9350.9399.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)202.2238.3247.5378.6369.0
Current Account (% of GDP)0.82.8-5.0-5.8-3.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.06.1-6.0-8.1-5.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)36.036.611.69.316.7
Exports (USD billion)85.179.144.835.547.3
Imports (USD billion)49.242.533.226.230.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.6-7.1-43.3-20.833.3
Imports (annual variation in %)5.4-13.7-21.8-21.016.5
International Reserves (USD)24.729.227.929.731.0
External Debt (% of GDP)64.372.3127116105

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Kazakhstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate386.00.32 %Nov 21
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 20

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