Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

October 3, 2017

Kazakhstan is facing brighter economic prospects as recent data points to strong growth in Q3, after the economy grew at the fastest pace since Q4 2014 in Q2. Industrial production surged in August, likely having benefitted from increased oil production in the massive Kashagan Field. In addition, inflationary pressures have been declining, lending support to private consumption. Against this backdrop, both Moody’s and S&P Global Ratings improved their outlooks on the country’s sovereign credit rating on 26 July and 8 September, respectively. Furthermore, Kazakhstan’s gross international reserves remained unchanged in August compared to July and were up from the beginning of the year.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

Population (million)16.917.217.417.717.9
GDP per capita (USD)12,19013,58812,4786,7887,636
GDP per capita (EUR)9,2469,86010,3126,2497,240
GDP (USD bn)206233217120137
GDP (EUR bn)156169180110130
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate5.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-2.0-2.7-2.2-1.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.312.314.322.125.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)7.31.5-8.27.946.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.506.5016.0012.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)150.4154.4182.9340.6333.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)149.2152.2179.4223.3342.0
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)198.5212.2221.2369.9350.9
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)191.8202.2238.3247.5378.6
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (USD bn)
Trade Balance (USD billion)38.134.836.212.79.4
Exports (USD billion)86.985.680.346.537.3
Imports (USD billion)48.850.844.133.827.9
Exports (annual variation in %)2.0-1.5-6.2-42.1-19.8
Imports (annual variation in %)20.94.1-13.3-23.2-17.7
International Reserves (USD)28.324.729.227.929.5
External Debt (% of GDP)66.464.372.5128119

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Kazakhstan Facts

Exchange Rate333.5-0.13 %Oct 18
Stock Market0.10.0 %Oct 18

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Kazakhstan Economic Growth

October 3, 2017

Going forward, the economy will be supported by strong industrial production and weaker inflationary pressures. Moreover, the economic recovery in Russia, one of Kazakhstan’s largest export markets, will lend support to the external sector. However, banking vulnerabilities, exacerbated by a large proportion of non-performing loans, weaken the economic outlook somewhat for Kazakhstan. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP will rise 3.1% in 2017. In 2018, panelists expect a 3.2% expansion, which is up 0.1 percentage points compared to last month’s projection.

Kazakhstan Economic News

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