Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

January 8, 2019

Incoming data suggests that the economy lost some steam in the final quarter of 2018, after growth edged down in the third quarter. Economic activity decelerated in November amid slower growth in the industrial sector. In addition, oil prices fell sharply in the fourth quarter, boding poorly for the important energy sector. However, lower oil prices were likely partly offset by rising crude production: In December, Energy Minister Kanat Bozumbayev stated that oil output hit a record in 2018, thanks to increased production at the Kashagan oil field. However, oil production will likely be contained in 2019 due to scheduled maintenance work at several oil fields. In addition, Kazakhstan also committed to limit production in the first half of 2019 in conjunction with OPEC quotas in December.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

Growth is seen decelerating this year after the 3.9% pace expected for 2018. FocusEconomics analysts expect GDP to increase 3.4% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s estimate. Moderating momentum from the energy sector will likely drive the softer print, while activity in the non-oil sector should gain steam thanks to reform efforts. Risks to the outlook include lower-than-expected commodity prices, rising global protectionism and financial market volatility. GDP growth is seen remaining stable at 3.4% in 2020.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)17.217.417.717.918.2
GDP per capita (USD)13,59112,4816,7937,8528,585
GDP per capita (EUR)9,86310,3146,2537,4457,150
GDP (USD bn)233217120141156
GDP (EUR bn)169180110133130
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.04.21.21.14.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)10.61.11.81.21.5
Investment (annual variation in %)5.54.44.23.04.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.30.2-1.6-1.27.2
Unemployment Rate5.25.05.14.94.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-2.7-2.2-1.6-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.314.322.124.426.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)1.5-8.27.946.17.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.87.413.68.57.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.86.76.614.77.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.5016.0012.0010.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)154.4182.9340.6333.7332.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)152.2179.4223.3342.0326.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)212.2221.2369.9350.9399.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)202.2238.3247.5378.6369.0
Current Account (% of GDP)0.52.8-2.8-6.4-3.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.26.1-5.1-8.9-4.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)34.836.212.79.217.5
Exports (USD billion)85.680.346.537.349.3
Imports (USD billion)50.844.133.828.131.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.5-6.2-42.1-19.932.3
Imports (annual variation in %)4.1-13.3-23.2-17.113.3
International Reserves (USD)24.729.227.929.730.7
External Debt (% of GDP)64.372.5128116107

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Kazakhstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate381.20.32 %Jan 30
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 30

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