Kazakhstan Economic Outlook
October 2, 2018Recently-released GDP data showed that the economy grew again at a solid pace in the second quarter, accelerating slightly from the first quarter. Available indicators signal a slight loss of momentum in the third quarter, however. Economic activity was up 5.2% year-on-year in the January–June period but decelerated in July and again in August, hitting a ten-month low. The slowdown partly reflected a sharp fall in industrial output growth which came on the back of a contraction in the manufacturing sector and a marked slowdown in the mining industry in August. On a more positive note, retail sales picked up pace in the same month amid stable inflation and sustained tightness in the labor market. On the external front, merchandise exports accelerated in July, amid favorable global oil prices.
Kazakhstan Economic GrowthGrowth should remain solid throughout the remainder of this year and in 2019, supported by higher oil prices and increased investment in the oil sector. Domestic demand will also likely help spur the expansion against the backdrop of healthy labor market dynamics and stable inflation. The main risks to the outlook include the likely escalation of global trade tensions and significant uncertainty surrounding the transition of power if President Nazarbayev decides to stay out of the 2020 presidential race. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 3.7% in 2018 and 3.4% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Kazakhstan Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||370.7||0.32 %||Oct 12|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Oct 12|
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Kazakhstan Economic News
October 1, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.4% over the previous month in September, following a 0.2% month-on-month rise in August.
September 28, 2018
A detailed breakdown of GDP by production shows that the economy continued to grow at a strong rate in the second quarter.
September 14, 2018
August saw a sharp slowdown in industrial production growth.
September 3, 2018
At its 3 September monetary policy meeting, the National Bank of Kazakhstan left the base rate unchanged at 9.00%, with a corridor of plus or minus 1.0%.
August 15, 2018
Industrial production picked up slightly in July, expanding 4.4% in annual terms, following a 4.2% year-on-year rise in June. Looking at a breakdown of the sub-sectors, the mining and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply sectors accelerated, while the manufacturing sector grew at a slightly weaker rate.