Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

July 7, 2020

Incoming data points to a sharp contraction in GDP in the second quarter, after growth plunged at the start of the year as the effects of the coronavirus pandemic first took hold. In May, economic activity recorded another sharp fall; retail sales plummeted over 30% amid lockdown and social distancing measures to contain the virus; and industrial production growth fell to a one-year low. Meanwhile, in a setback to the recovery, the government announced it will reintroduce tough lockdown measures in July amid a sharp rise in infections. Government measures had been largely lifted in mid-May to reopen the economy, and the return of restrictions will prolong the economy entering a recovery.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

Kazakhstan’s prospects deteriorated once again this month. GDP is seen contracting notably this year as stringent lockdown measures, low oil prices and a slow global recovery hammer the outlook. Downside risks linger especially from another long lockdown and low oil prices. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP to fall 2.0% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to increase 4.2% in 2021.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)17.717.918.218.418.6
GDP per capita (USD)6,7937,8569,0028,8199,662
GDP per capita (EUR)6,2537,4487,4977,7158,608
GDP (USD bn)120141163162180
GDP (EUR bn)110133136142160
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.14.14.14.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.81.21.56.15.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.23.04.55.411.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.6-1.27.24.13.9
Unemployment Rate5.14.94.94.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-1.6-2.7-1.3-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)22.828.226.326.025.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)8.046.27.57.111.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)13.68.57.15.35.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.614.77.46.05.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0012.0010.259.259.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)340.6333.7332.8384.3382.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)223.3342.0326.3345.2383.0
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)369.9350.9399.3440.8429.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)247.5378.6369.0407.0428.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.0-5.8-3.1-0.1-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.0-8.1-5.1-0.2-6.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)11.69.316.725.619.1
Exports (USD billion)44.835.547.359.857.8
Imports (USD billion)33.226.230.634.238.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-43.3-20.833.326.5-3.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-21.8-21.016.512.013.0
International Reserves (USD)27.929.731.030.929.0
External Debt (% of GDP)12711610297.987.1

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Kazakhstan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate382.90.32 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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