Kazakhstan Economic Outlook
May 10, 2022After strong growth figures indicated that the economy had recovered from Covid-19 by the end of 2021, the economy likely continued its acceleration in Q1 2022. Monthly economic activity growth averaged slightly higher than in Q4, although national accounts data has not yet been made available. However, momentum was seemingly affected in January by social unrest, as suggested by lower PMI readings during the month. Turning to Q2, both the manufacturing and services PMIs rose in April, signaling a solid start to the quarter notwithstanding the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war. In particular, the services PMI indicated a move back into expansionary territory amid stronger new orders. Moreover, solid government spending—facilitated by high energy prices—should be providing further support. That said, surging inflation and higher interest rates are likely capping consumer spending.
Kazakhstan Economic GrowthOur panelists significantly lowered their growth forecasts for 2022 recently amid the disruptions from the war in Ukraine, high inflation and tighter monetary policy. However, pro-market reforms and oil prices should support activity. A resurgence of social unrest, reduced oil exports because of damaged pipelines and currency devaluation are downside risks. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP to expand 2.4% in 2022, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the economy is set to grow 3.8%.
Kazakhstan Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||382.9||0.32 %||Jan 01|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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Kazakhstan Economic News
April 18, 2022
Industrial output grew 8.1% in year-on-year terms in March, which was above February's 6.5% increase.
April 1, 2022
Consumer prices increased 3.70% over the previous month in March, up from the 0.80% rise logged in February. Inflation came in at 12.0% in March, up from 8.7% in February and marking the highest reading since 2016.
March 16, 2022
Industrial output expanded 6.5% in year-on-year terms in February, which followed January's 2.9% increase.
March 9, 2022
At its latest meeting on 9 March, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided to keep the base rate at 13.50%, following its decision to hike the rate by 325 basis points in late February.
March 4, 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February was met with severe Western sanctions, which quickly caused the ruble to depreciate and caused, in a spillover effect, volatility for the tenge.