Kazakhstan Economic Outlook
September 7, 2021The economy rebounded from Q1’s contraction in Q2, amid a more favorable base effect. The turnaround was driven by the services sector, with trade and transportation both improving. In addition, industrial activity picked up on the back of buoyant mining output, as the easing of OPEC+ production cuts factored in. Moving to Q3, the short-term economic activity indicator suggests that growth gained steam in January–July compared to H1, mainly driven by robust industrial output. However, the health crisis worsened at the end of June, forcing authorities to place much of the country under the highest level of restrictions throughout July and August. In other news, Moody’s recently upgraded Kazakhstan’s rating to Baa2 from Baa3. However, the agency changed its outlook to stable from positive, citing balanced risks between investment-friendly reforms and a possible slowdown in the energy market.
Kazakhstan Economic GrowthActivity should rebound this year on upbeat domestic activity amid looser restrictions compared to 2020, and as the global vaccine rollout benefits the external sector. In addition, the recent OPEC+ decision to expand oil output bodes well for the energy sector. However, spiking daily Covid-19 cases threaten the recovery in H2, clouding the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP to expand 3.9% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2022, the economy is set to grow 4.3%.
Kazakhstan Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||382.9||0.32 %||Jan 01|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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Kazakhstan Economic News
September 13, 2021
At its meeting in mid-September, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) decided to raise the base rate by 25 basis points to 9.50%, marking the second consecutive hike since late July after holding rates for eight successive meetings.
September 2, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.47% in August over the previous month, after the 0.67% increase recorded in July.
August 13, 2021
Industrial output grew 8.2% year-on-year in July (June: +1.7% yoy).
August 13, 2021
According to a preliminary reading, GDP expanded 2.3% year-on-year in the January–June period, rebounding from the 1.4% contraction recorded in Q1.
August 2, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.67% over the previous month in July, coming in below the 1.10% increase seen in June.