Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

May 7, 2019

The short-term economic activity indicator, a proxy for economic growth, accelerated in March, although its overall performance in the first quarter fell short of that recorded in Q4 2018. Fixed investment surged in Q1, while higher real wages and increased credit availability likely buttressed household spending. On the production side, the industrial sector picked up steam in March, largely on the back of a rebound in Chinese manufacturing activity. In the political arena, uncertainty has resurfaced after interim President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called a snap election for 9 June in early April. Tokayev is favorite to win, whose victory would ensure a high degree of policy continuity on the economic front. Meanwhile, Dariga Nazarbayeva, the former president’s daughter, has shown no intentions of running in the race.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

The economy is set to decelerate this year on a fall in exports given the challenging external conditions, while growth of oil output moderates on overhauls at the Kashagan, Karachaganak and Tengiz oil fields. On the demand side, the stimulus package should support consumption spending. Meanwhile, uncertainty over who will take the reins clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts expect GDP to increase 3.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and also 3.4% in 2020.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)17.217.417.717.918.2
GDP per capita (USD)13,59112,4816,7937,8528,585
GDP per capita (EUR)9,86310,3146,2537,4457,150
GDP (USD bn)233217120141156
GDP (EUR bn)169180110133130
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.04.21.21.14.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)10.61.11.81.21.5
Investment (annual variation in %)5.54.44.23.04.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.30.2-1.6-1.27.2
Unemployment Rate5.25.05.14.94.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-2.7-2.2-1.6-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.314.322.124.426.0
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)1.5-8.27.946.17.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.87.413.68.57.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.86.76.614.77.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.506.5016.0012.0010.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)154.4182.9340.6333.7332.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)152.2179.4223.3342.0326.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)212.2221.2369.9350.9399.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)202.2238.3247.5378.6369.0
Current Account (% of GDP)0.52.8-2.8-6.4-3.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.26.1-5.1-8.9-4.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)34.836.212.79.217.5
Exports (USD billion)85.680.346.537.349.3
Imports (USD billion)50.844.133.828.131.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.5-6.2-42.1-19.932.3
Imports (annual variation in %)4.1-13.3-23.2-17.113.3
International Reserves (USD)24.729.227.929.730.7
External Debt (% of GDP)64.372.5128116107

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Kazakhstan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate379.50.32 %May 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %May 13

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