Kazakhstan Economic Outlook
November 28, 2017A preliminary estimate shows that GDP expanded 4.3% in annual terms in the January–September period, matching the year-on-year growth recorded in January–June. While a breakdown by expenditure has yet to be released, the first estimate on a production basis indicates that accelerations in the industrial and service sectors underpinned the print. Exports rose at a double-digit rate in the period. Recent data, however, suggests that the economy’s steady growth rate was not sustained at the outset of the fourth quarter. In October, annual growth in industrial production plummeted, caused by a broad-based slowdown, spearheaded by a sharp drop in the mining sub-sector’s pace of expansion. Retail sales also grew at a slower annual rate. On 14 November, Energy Minister Kanat Bozumbayev declared that the Kashagan oil field will fall short of meeting its production target of 370 thousand barrels per day by the end of the year. It will yield an estimated 250 thousand barrels per day instead, due to failed efforts to reinject gas into reservoirs, which is necessary to boost oil production.
Kazakhstan Economic GrowthIncreased trade with China, Russia and the Euro area should boost exports and continue to support strong growth in the industrial sector, which together with healthy private consumption, should keep the economy on a solid expansion path. A sustained risk to the outlook, however, is the high level of non-performing loans in the banking sector. FocusEconomics panelists project 3.3% growth in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and expects growth to rise to 3.5% in 2019.
Kazakhstan Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||334.0||0.32 %||Dec 06|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Dec 06|
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Kazakhstan Economic News
November 27, 2017
At its 27 November monetary policy meeting, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) kept the one-day repo rate—also known as the base rate—unchanged at 10.25%, with a corridor of plus or minus 1%.
November 20, 2017
The economy continues to progress at a robust pace.
November 15, 2017
Consumer prices increased 1.2% over the previous month in October, up from a 0.3% month-on-month rise in September.
November 13, 2017
In October period, year-on-year industrial production growth plummeted to a meagre 0.6%, down from 6.9% in September.
October 23, 2017
According to data released by the Statistical Institute on 23 October, the economy accelerated in the second quarter, growing at an over two-year high of 4.2% year-on-year, up from 3.4% in the first quarter.