Kazakhstan Economic Outlook
January 8, 2019
Incoming data suggests that the economy lost some steam in the final quarter of 2018, after growth edged down in the third quarter. Economic activity decelerated in November amid slower growth in the industrial sector. In addition, oil prices fell sharply in the fourth quarter, boding poorly for the important energy sector. However, lower oil prices were likely partly offset by rising crude production: In December, Energy Minister Kanat Bozumbayev stated that oil output hit a record in 2018, thanks to increased production at the Kashagan oil field. However, oil production will likely be contained in 2019 due to scheduled maintenance work at several oil fields. In addition, Kazakhstan also committed to limit production in the first half of 2019 in conjunction with OPEC quotas in December.Kazakhstan Economic Growth
Growth is seen decelerating this year after the 3.9% pace expected for 2018. FocusEconomics analysts expect GDP to increase 3.4% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s estimate. Moderating momentum from the energy sector will likely drive the softer print, while activity in the non-oil sector should gain steam thanks to reform efforts. Risks to the outlook include lower-than-expected commodity prices, rising global protectionism and financial market volatility. GDP growth is seen remaining stable at 3.4% in 2020.Kazakhstan Economy Data
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Kazakhstan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 381.2 | 0.32 % | Jan 30 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | 0.0 % | Jan 30 |
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Kazakhstan Economic News
Kazakhstan: Industrial sector grows at the swiftest pace in five months in March
April 15, 2019
Industrial production grew 4.2% year-on-year in March, up from February’s 3.5% expansion.
Kazakhstan: Inflation remains stable in March at over three-year low
April 1, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.5% over the previous month in March, following a 0.3% month-on-month upturn in February.
Kazakhstan: Nazarbayev relinquishes power after three decades in charge; policy continuity will likely prevail in the near-term
April 1, 2019
On 19 March, President Nursultan Nazarbayev unexpectedly resigned, relinquishing power after three decades of rule since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Kazakhstan: Industrial sector accelerates again in February
March 15, 2019
The industrial sector accelerated in February for the second consecutive month, following a notable slowdown in December.
Kazakhstan: Central Bank maintains the rate at 9.25%
March 4, 2019
At its 4 March monetary policy meeting, the National Bank of Kazakhstan held the base rate at 9.25%, with an interest rate corridor of plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. The Bank’s decision to hold the rate steady came against the backdrop of declining inflationary pressures.
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