Kazakhstan Economic Outlook
March 10, 2020An official release revealed economic activity further accelerated last year, from 2018’s already strong print. Although a full breakdown of the data is not yet available, growth gathered momentum in the final stretch of the year on the back of a buoyant domestic economy. Upbeat retail sales in Q4 point to sturdy household consumption, while capital spending likely benefited from government incentives for non-oil investments. Moreover, industrial production accelerated in Q4 on the back of soaring manufacturing output, which further suggests that the non-oil sector gained steam. On the flipside, merchandise exports contracted in Q4, indicating that the external sector dragged on overall growth. Turning to the first quarter, the economy likely got off to a slow start. Industrial production lost pace in the first month of the year, as oil exports to China were suspended in January and February due to contaminated crude.
Kazakhstan Economic GrowthGrowth is expected to moderate this year but should remain solid nonetheless. Robust output has strengthened the government’s hand to push ahead with its privatization agenda, which should foster solid fixed investment growth ahead. Exports are expected to gain some steam, although protracted weakness in Chinese demand due to coronavirus pose a downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP to increase 3.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.9% in 2021.
Kazakhstan Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||382.9||0.32 %||Jan 01|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jan 07|
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Kazakhstan Economic News
April 1, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.9% month-on-month in March, edging down from February’s 0.6% print.
March 16, 2020
At its 16 March meeting, the National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to maintain the base rate at 12.00%, its highest point since February 2017, while keeping an interest rate corridor of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
March 11, 2020
Industrial production growth jumped to 5.8% year-on-year in February, from 4.1% in January.
Kazakhstan: Central Bank hikes the base rate to a near-four-year high in March as Covid-19 hits the external sector
March 10, 2020
At an emergency meeting on 10 March, the National Bank of Kazakhstan hiked the base rate from 9.25% to 12.00%, its highest point since February 2017.
March 2, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.6% month-on-month in February, edging down from January’s 0.7% print.