Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

November 30, 2021

A recent release confirmed that activity gained pace in January–September, accelerating from H1’s expansion. The improvement came despite a less favorable base effect and lingering restrictions, suggesting a healthy economy. Looking at individual sectors, services performed particularly well, while industry also grew at a much faster rate, with mining and quarrying output falling at a softer pace despite lower oil production. Contrastingly, agricultural production lost momentum. Moving to Q4, the short-term economic indicator pointed to a slight slowdown in October, with the manufacturing subsector and energy production weighing on the print. Additional subsectors such as construction and communication also lost steam. However, the wholesale and retail trade subsector picked up, benefiting from the easing of restrictions in the two largest cities in late October.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

Economic activity should gain steam in 2022, after a projected rebound in 2021. A resurging global market and easing OPEC+ production cuts will bolster exports, while robust wage growth should benefit household spending. Moreover, reforms towards a market economy and the international recovery will continue to fuel foreign investment, particularly in the key energy sector. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP to expand 4.4% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the economy is set to grow 4.3%.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)17.717.918.218.418.6
GDP per capita (USD)6,7937,8569,0028,8199,662
GDP per capita (EUR)6,2537,4487,4977,7158,608
GDP (USD bn)120141163162180
GDP (EUR bn)110133136142160
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.14.14.14.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.81.21.56.15.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.23.04.55.411.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.6-1.27.24.13.9
Unemployment Rate5.14.94.94.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-1.6-2.7-1.3-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)22.828.226.326.025.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)8.046.27.57.111.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)13.68.57.15.35.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.614.77.46.05.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0012.0010.259.259.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)340.6333.7332.8384.3382.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)223.3342.0326.3345.2383.0
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)369.9350.9399.3440.8429.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)247.5378.6369.0407.0428.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.0-5.8-3.1-0.1-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.0-8.1-5.1-0.2-6.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)11.69.316.725.619.1
Exports (USD billion)44.835.547.359.857.8
Imports (USD billion)33.226.230.634.238.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-43.3-20.833.326.5-3.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-21.8-21.016.512.013.0
International Reserves (USD)27.929.731.030.929.0
External Debt (% of GDP)12711610297.987.1

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Kazakhstan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate382.90.32 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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