Kazakhstan Economic Outlook
November 26, 2019A first estimate showed that the growth reached a two-year high in the third quarter. Industrial production picked up on the back of upbeat oil output, while activity in the construction and services sectors accelerated in the quarter. Retail sales growth, however, moderated in Q3 despite rising wages, pointing to a slowdown in private consumption. Moreover, external sector metrics were more downbeat in Q3, with goods exports swinging to contraction and merchandise import growth rising. Turning to Q4, the economy maintained pace in January–October, underpinned by buoyant activity in the industrial, construction and retail trade sectors. That said, challenging conditions in the external sector appear to have persisted. On 11 November, Russia’s state-owned pipeline operator agreed to compensate 14 Kazak companies for oil contamination in the Druzhba pipeline.
Kazakhstan Economic GrowthGrowth is set to moderate next year, but should remain solid. Planned government reforms, which include income tax breaks, should shore up fixed investment, while private consumption will expand at a healthy pace, despite likely losing steam. Moreover, export growth is seen rising on buoyant oil production, although heightened trade tensions remain a key downside risk. FocusEconomics analysts expect GDP to increase 3.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.9% in 2021.
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|Exchange Rate||386.0||0.32 %||Nov 21|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Nov 20|
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Kazakhstan Economic News
December 3, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.7% over the previous month in November, slightly up from October’s 0.6% increase.
November 18, 2019
Economic growth edged up to 4.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, up from Q2’s 4.1% expansion and marking the fastest expansion since Q3 2017, according to a preliminary estimate released by Kazakhstan’s Statistical Institute (SARK) on 18 November. While a detailed breakdown has to be released, an acceleration in industrial, construction, and services activity underpinned the upturn in growth.
November 15, 2019
Industrial production growth jumped to 5.4% on an annual basis in October after slowing to 3.7% in September.
November 1, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.6% over the previous month in October, up from September’s 0.3% increase.
October 28, 2019
At its latest monetary policy meeting on 28 October, the National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to leave the base rate at 9.25%, keeping an interest rate corridor of plus or minus 1.0 percentage point.