Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

September 7, 2021

The economy rebounded from Q1’s contraction in Q2, amid a more favorable base effect. The turnaround was driven by the services sector, with trade and transportation both improving. In addition, industrial activity picked up on the back of buoyant mining output, as the easing of OPEC+ production cuts factored in. Moving to Q3, the short-term economic activity indicator suggests that growth gained steam in January–July compared to H1, mainly driven by robust industrial output. However, the health crisis worsened at the end of June, forcing authorities to place much of the country under the highest level of restrictions throughout July and August. In other news, Moody’s recently upgraded Kazakhstan’s rating to Baa2 from Baa3. However, the agency changed its outlook to stable from positive, citing balanced risks between investment-friendly reforms and a possible slowdown in the energy market.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

Activity should rebound this year on upbeat domestic activity amid looser restrictions compared to 2020, and as the global vaccine rollout benefits the external sector. In addition, the recent OPEC+ decision to expand oil output bodes well for the energy sector. However, spiking daily Covid-19 cases threaten the recovery in H2, clouding the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP to expand 3.9% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2022, the economy is set to grow 4.3%.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)17.717.918.218.418.6
GDP per capita (USD)6,7937,8569,0028,8199,662
GDP per capita (EUR)6,2537,4487,4977,7158,608
GDP (USD bn)120141163162180
GDP (EUR bn)110133136142160
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.14.14.14.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.81.21.56.15.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.23.04.55.411.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.6-1.27.24.13.9
Unemployment Rate5.14.94.94.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-1.6-2.7-1.3-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)22.828.226.326.025.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)8.046.27.57.111.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)13.68.57.15.35.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.614.77.46.05.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0012.0010.259.259.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)340.6333.7332.8384.3382.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)223.3342.0326.3345.2383.0
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)369.9350.9399.3440.8429.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)247.5378.6369.0407.0428.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.0-5.8-3.1-0.1-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.0-8.1-5.1-0.2-6.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)11.69.316.725.619.1
Exports (USD billion)44.835.547.359.857.8
Imports (USD billion)33.226.230.634.238.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-43.3-20.833.326.5-3.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-21.8-21.016.512.013.0
International Reserves (USD)27.929.731.030.929.0
External Debt (% of GDP)12711610297.987.1

Sample Report

5 years of Kazakhstan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Kazakhstan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate382.90.32 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Kazakhstan Economic News

Search form