Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

March 10, 2020

An official release revealed economic activity further accelerated last year, from 2018’s already strong print. Although a full breakdown of the data is not yet available, growth gathered momentum in the final stretch of the year on the back of a buoyant domestic economy. Upbeat retail sales in Q4 point to sturdy household consumption, while capital spending likely benefited from government incentives for non-oil investments. Moreover, industrial production accelerated in Q4 on the back of soaring manufacturing output, which further suggests that the non-oil sector gained steam. On the flipside, merchandise exports contracted in Q4, indicating that the external sector dragged on overall growth. Turning to the first quarter, the economy likely got off to a slow start. Industrial production lost pace in the first month of the year, as oil exports to China were suspended in January and February due to contaminated crude.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

Growth is expected to moderate this year but should remain solid nonetheless. Robust output has strengthened the government’s hand to push ahead with its privatization agenda, which should foster solid fixed investment growth ahead. Exports are expected to gain some steam, although protracted weakness in Chinese demand due to coronavirus pose a downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP to increase 3.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.9% in 2021.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)17.417.717.918.218.4
GDP per capita (USD)12,4816,7937,8568,7908,819
GDP per capita (EUR)10,3146,2537,4487,3207,715
GDP (USD bn)217120141167179
GDP (EUR bn)180110133133142
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.21.21.14.14.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.11.81.21.55.3
Investment (annual variation in %)4.44.23.04.55.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.2-1.6-1.27.24.1
Unemployment Rate5.05.14.94.94.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-2.2-1.6-2.7-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)14.322.124.425.524.7
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-8.28.046.27.57.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.413.68.57.15.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.76.614.77.46.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.5016.0012.0010.259.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)182.9340.6333.7332.8384.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)179.4223.3342.0326.3345.2
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)221.2369.9350.9399.3440.8
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)238.3247.5378.6369.0407.0
Current Account (% of GDP)2.8-5.0-5.8-3.2-0.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)6.1-6.0-8.1-5.1-0.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)36.611.69.316.725.5
Exports (USD billion)79.144.835.547.359.8
Imports (USD billion)42.533.226.230.634.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.1-43.3-20.833.326.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-13.7-21.8-21.016.512.0
International Reserves (USD)29.227.929.731.030.9
External Debt (% of GDP)72.312711610597.9

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Kazakhstan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate382.90.32 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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