Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

May 10, 2022

After strong growth figures indicated that the economy had recovered from Covid-19 by the end of 2021, the economy likely continued its acceleration in Q1 2022. Monthly economic activity growth averaged slightly higher than in Q4, although national accounts data has not yet been made available. However, momentum was seemingly affected in January by social unrest, as suggested by lower PMI readings during the month. Turning to Q2, both the manufacturing and services PMIs rose in April, signaling a solid start to the quarter notwithstanding the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war. In particular, the services PMI indicated a move back into expansionary territory amid stronger new orders. Moreover, solid government spending—facilitated by high energy prices—should be providing further support. That said, surging inflation and higher interest rates are likely capping consumer spending.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

Our panelists significantly lowered their growth forecasts for 2022 recently amid the disruptions from the war in Ukraine, high inflation and tighter monetary policy. However, pro-market reforms and oil prices should support activity. A resurgence of social unrest, reduced oil exports because of damaged pipelines and currency devaluation are downside risks. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP to expand 2.4% in 2022, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the economy is set to grow 3.8%.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)17.717.918.218.418.6
GDP per capita (USD)6,7937,8569,0028,8199,662
GDP per capita (EUR)6,2537,4487,4977,7158,608
GDP (USD bn)120141163162180
GDP (EUR bn)110133136142160
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.14.14.14.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.81.21.56.15.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.23.04.55.411.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.6-1.27.24.13.9
Unemployment Rate5.14.94.94.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-1.6-2.7-1.3-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)22.828.226.326.025.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)8.046.27.57.111.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)13.68.57.15.35.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.614.77.46.05.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0012.0010.259.259.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)340.6333.7332.8384.3382.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)223.3342.0326.3345.2383.0
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)369.9350.9399.3440.8429.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)247.5378.6369.0407.0428.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.0-5.8-3.1-0.1-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.0-8.1-5.1-0.2-6.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)11.69.316.725.619.1
Exports (USD billion)44.835.547.359.857.8
Imports (USD billion)33.226.230.634.238.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-43.3-20.833.326.5-3.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-21.8-21.016.512.013.0
International Reserves (USD)27.929.731.030.929.0
External Debt (% of GDP)12711610297.987.1

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Kazakhstan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate382.90.32 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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