Kazakhstan Economic Forecast

Kazakhstan Economic Outlook

October 6, 2020

The economy suffered in the first half of the year on the fallout from the pandemic. Services activity plummeted, leading the overall downturn, while industrial production lost steam as mining and manufacturing output grew at a softer pace. The economy continued to deteriorate at the beginning of Q3 due to a second lockdown imposed in early July. Accordingly, fixed investment took a hit in July amid heightened uncertainty, while retail sales were also down sharply in the same month. Externally, exports plummeted and likely remained restrained throughout Q3 by OPEC+-imposed productions cuts and still-low oil prices. However, following the easing of restrictions in mid-August, declines in both industrial production and economic activity eased in the month after falling at a record pace in July. Moreover, retail sales expanded in annual terms in August. This suggests the economic conditions improved at the end of the quarter.

Kazakhstan Economic Growth

GDP is seen contracting notably this year as activity takes a double hit from severe restrictions imposed in Q2 and a second lockdown in Q3. Economic output should recover somewhat in 2021 as external demand rebounds. However, low energy prices and a possible further resurgence of Covid-19 cases pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project GDP to fall 2.1% in 2020 and to increase 3.9% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Kazakhstan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)17.717.918.218.418.6
GDP per capita (USD)6,7937,8569,0028,8199,662
GDP per capita (EUR)6,2537,4487,4977,7158,608
GDP (USD bn)120141163162180
GDP (EUR bn)110133136142160
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.14.14.14.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.81.21.56.15.8
Investment (annual variation in %)4.23.04.55.411.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.6-1.27.24.13.9
Unemployment Rate5.14.94.94.8-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-1.6-2.7-1.3-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)22.828.226.326.025.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)8.046.27.57.111.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)13.68.57.15.35.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.614.77.46.05.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0012.0010.259.259.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)340.6333.7332.8384.3382.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)223.3342.0326.3345.2383.0
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)369.9350.9399.3440.8429.3
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)247.5378.6369.0407.0428.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.0-5.8-3.1-0.1-3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-6.0-8.1-5.1-0.2-6.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)11.69.316.725.619.1
Exports (USD billion)44.835.547.359.857.8
Imports (USD billion)33.226.230.634.238.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-43.3-20.833.326.5-3.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-21.8-21.016.512.013.0
International Reserves (USD)27.929.731.030.929.0
External Debt (% of GDP)12711610297.987.1

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Kazakhstan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate382.90.32 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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