Kazakhstan Economic Outlook
July 2, 2019Economic activity likely remained stunted in the second quarter, on the heels of a deceleration in the first quarter. In May, the short-term economic activity indicator weakened for a second consecutive month, amid a drop in industrial production—brought upon by a slowdown in the manufacturing sector—and the sharpest slump in oil output in almost three years, owing to planned maintenance works in the Kashagan oil field. The industrial downturn, coupled with lower oil prices, is likely to have bruised merchandise exports in May, which had barely recovered in April; in turn, this threatens to push the current account back into a deficit by the end of Q2. In the political arena, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, a loyal lieutenant of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev, won a rubber-stamp presidential election on 9 June. This should ensure the continuity of economic policy ahead.
Kazakhstan Economic GrowthGrowth is set to decelerate this year on a fall in merchandise exports owing to a more challenging external backdrop and easing oil output due to overhauls at the three main oil fields. Nevertheless, solid domestic demand should buffer the slowdown, with a planned fiscal stimulus program supporting consumption and looser credit conditions boosting fixed investment. FocusEconomics analysts expect GDP to increase 3.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.5% again in 2020.
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|Exchange Rate||383.3||0.32 %||Jul 11|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jul 10|
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Kazakhstan Economic News
July 15, 2019
At its latest monetary policy meeting on 15 July, the National Bank of Kazakhstan held the base rate at 9.00%, with an interest rate corridor of plus or minus 1.0 percentage point.
July 15, 2019
Industrial production grew 5.9% in June, the highest reading in over a year and rebounding from May’s 1.6% contraction.
July 15, 2019
A breakdown of GDP by expenditure released by Kazakhstan’s Statistical Institute (SARK) confirmed that the economy grew 3.8% year-on-year in January–March, decelerating from the 4.1% expansion recorded in January–December 2018. Ebbing global momentum and volatility in commodity markets appear to have taken its toll on the external sector.
July 1, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.2% over the previous month in June, decelerating from May’s 0.5% month-on-month upturn.
June 20, 2019
Industrial production swung to contraction in May, declining 1.6% over the same day last month.